2023 Kentucky Derby Best Longshot Bets, Picks & Predictions
The Kentucky Derby is just a few days away. Forte, Tapit Trice, and Angel of Empire are the three race favorites, each with odds at less than 10/1. However, there are quite a few horses with much longer odds that could make some noise at this year’s Derby. Nine of the field’s 20 horses have odds of 20/1 or greater at the time of writing. Which of those horses make sense to add to exotics or could even potentially win?
Kentucky Derby Longshot Bets
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Reincarnate (50/1)
How can we totally disregard the horse being ridden by three-time Kentucky Derby winner John Velazquez? Two of Velazquez’s three wins have been while aboard horses with odds of 10/1 or less. However, his first victory back in 2011 came on the back of Animal Kingdom who went off at 21/1. The morning line for the horse was 30/1.
So Velazquez will certainly have his work cut out for him on the back of Reincarnate, a horse currently with 50/1 odds. Recent results don’t suggest much hope for Reincarnate. The horse finished a distant third at the Arkansas Derby, an event that was won by Angel of Empire. However, we have seen horses that go out hard in the Kentucky Derby have success before. Reincarnate is all but guaranteed to be the pacesetter for this race. If the pace is strong enough, then it could be enough to prevent the closers from having their usual speed down the final straightaway.
Lord Miles (30/1)
Lord Miles has already won bettors a lot of money this year. At the Wood Memorial on April 8th, the horse closed strong to defeat Hit Show and take the race as a 59/1 longshot. None of the horses from the Wood Memorial are seeing much love ahead of the Kentucky Derby, but the question remains: Can lightning strike twice?
Of all the horses with odds of at least 20/1 but less than 50/1, this is the horse we like the most. The two races prior to the Wood Memorial were bad for Lord Miles. He finished fifth at Tampa Bay and sixth at Holy Bull. However, the Wood Memorial showed what this horse can do, and that race was also the longest of the three. Jockey Paco Lopez hasn’t had much success at the Kentucky Derby, but an outside starting position could allow him to give this horse the path it needs for Derby success.
Sun Thunder (50/1)
Maybe the most inconsistent horse in the race, Sun Thunder finished fifth at the Louisiana Derby and fourth at the Blue Grass Stakes, after having a really nice run at the Risen Star. At Risen Star, Sun Thunder barrelled down the homestretch to finish second behind Angel of Empire, one of the favorites in this race. In that same race, Sun Thunder defeated Two Phil’s.
Which horse will show up on Saturday? Probably the one that we saw at Blue Grass and Louisiana. So, based on those results, it makes sense to disregard Sun Thunder. However, this horse has proven it has the ability to compete with any horse in the field. That is more than can be said for most of the other 50/1 shots. He will need a perfect race, but Sun Thunder is a solid longshot pick.
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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.