2023 Kentucky Derby: Odds, Trends & Best Bets
The first Saturday in May is just days away, and with it the 149th Kentucky Derby. The Run for the Roses will start at approximately 6:57 pm ET on Saturday, May 6 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.
2023 Kentucky Derby: Best Exotic Bets for the Run for the Roses >>
2023 Kentucky Derby Trends & Best Bets
Winning Trends by Post Position Since 1930
1 – Hit Show (30-1) – (Post 1 winners – 8, Most Recent – Ferdinand, 1986)
2 – Verifying (15-1) – (Post 2 winners – 7, Most Recent – Affirmed, 1978)
3 – Two Phil’s (12-1) – (Post 3 winners – 5, Most Recent – Real Quiet, 1998)
4 – Confidence Game (20-1) – (Post 4 winners – 5, Most Recent – Super Saver, 2010)
5 – Tapit Trice (5-1) – (Post 5 winners – 10, Most Recent – Always Dreaming, 2017)
6 – Kingsbarns (12-1) – (Post 6 winners – 2, Most Recent – Sea Hero, 1993)
7 – Reincarnate (50-1) – (Post 8 winners – 8, Most Recent – Mandaloun, 2021)
8 – Mage (15-1) – (Post 8 winners – 8, Most Recent – Mine That Bird, 2009)
9 – Skinner (20-1) – (Post 9 winners – 4, Most Recent – Riva Ridge, 1972)
10 – Practical Move (10-1) – (Post 10 winners – 9, Most Recent – Giacomo, 2005)
11 – Disarm (30-1) – (Post 11 winners – 2, Most Recent – Winning Colors, 1988)
12 – Jace’s Road (15-1) – (Post 12 winners – 3, Most Recent – Canonero II, 1971)
13 – Sun Thunder (50-1) – (Post 13 winners – 4, Most Recent – Nyquist, 2016)
14 – Angel of Empire (8-1) – (Post 14 winners – 2, Most Recent – Carry Back, 1961)
15 – Forte (3-1) – (Post 15 winners – 6, Most Recent – Authentic, 2020)
16 – Raise Cain (50-1) – (Post 16 winners – 4, Most Recent – Animal Kingdom, 2011)
17 – Derma Sotogake (10-1) – (Post 17 winners – 0)
18 – Rocket Can (30-1) – (Post 18 winners – 2, Most Recent – Country House, 2019)
19 – Lord Miles (30-1) – (Post 19 winners – 1, Most Recent – I’ll Have Another, 2012)
20 – Continuar (50-1) – (Post 20 winners – 2, Most Recent – Rich Strike, 2022)
Trend-Based Bad Bets
There are no bad horses, only bad bets, so we will use the phrase “Trend-Based Bad Bets†for the following entrants. These are horses that statistically and historically face factors that are poor bets to win on Derby Day. Anything is possible in horse racing, but I am a process-driven bettor and these bets are the antithesis of process-driven.
Derma Sotogake & Continuar – Both of these horses earned their entries to the Derby through their performances in the United Arab Emirates Derby back in March. No horse that has taken this path has ever even hit the board in the Kentucky Derby, let alone win. Derma Sotogake is Japanese-bred and there have been some great sires bred which has led to worldwide success, just not in The Derby. While I do believe it is only a matter of time before a Japanese-bred horse wins the Derby, a bet for this to be the year is not the way to go based on historical data, especially when you factor in that Derma Sotogake drew the dreaded 17th post which no horse has ever won from.
Mage & Kingsbarns – Neither of these horses ran a race as a 2-year-old and only two such horses have ever won the Kentucky Derby: Apollo (1882) and Justify (2018). The former “Curse of Apollo†that Triple Crown winner Justify broke back five years ago was so feared that owners would (and still do) pressure trainers to get at least one race in as juveniles, even if they aren’t truly race-ready, just to avoid being a part of this negative trend. It is incredibly difficult for colts to have the proper racing foundation for the Derby’s 1 1/8 mile run, beginning to race only as a 3-year-old. Even in the years since a generational talent like Justify bucked this trend, horses fitting this criterion are a combined 0-for-10 in the Derby with none even coming close to hitting the board, the closest finishing 10th.
Winning Trends
Need For Speed
Of the previous 25 Kentucky Derby champions, 19 have completed the final 3/8 mile of their final Derby prep race in under 38 seconds flat. Of the 20 horses in this year’s Derby, 14 fit this criterion, however, we can take away Kingsbarns and Derma Sotogake as their negative trends were addressed in the previous section. The remaining 12 are (in post position order): Verifying, Two Phil’s, Tapit Trice, Reincarnate, Skinner, Practical Move, Disarm, Jace’s Road, Angel of Empire, Forte, Rocket Can, and Lord Miles.
What Have You Done For Me Lately?
Furthermore, historically, of the previous 68 Kentucky Derby champions, only two have won after extended layoffs of six weeks or more. Those two horses were Animal Kingdom in 2011 and Authentic in 2020. In fact, each of the last 11 winners’ final preps were within 7 weeks of the Derby. The lone 7-week layoff belonging to Authentic, whose 2020 layoff has the asterisk of being impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic where every horse’s prep schedule was askew thanks to the rescheduled late summer race. The traditional Kentucky Derby prep schedule was completely thrown off in 2020 so that makes one out of the last 67 “traditional†champs coming off layoffs of more than five weeks. This pares the remaining field down a little more to ten horses: Verifying, Tapit Trice, Reincarnate, Skinner, Practical Move, Disarm, Angel of Empire, Forte, Rocket Can, and Lord Miles.
Winner, Winner Plus Skinner
If you include the ultimately disqualified Maximum Security in 2019, 10 of the last dozen horses to cross the finish line first at the Kentucky Derby have entered the race coming off of a victory in their final prep race. Top winners tend to string wins together so this one should come as no surprise and we can pare down the remaining field to six horses: Tapit Trice, Angel of Empire, Forte, Practical Move, and Lord Miles all won their final prep races. The sixth horse I’m keeping is Skinner, who I am keeping in based on his recent strong 3rd place finish in the Santa Anita Derby behind Practical Move, combined with the juice of his mid-range odds, as well as the next and final criterion: Pedigree.
Who’s Your Daddy?
Pedigree matters, especially in recent years, as 11 of the previous 14 Kentucky Derby champions have been sired by stallions that won at least one Grade 1 race of 1 1/16 miles or farther. Five of the remaining six horses (Practical Move) fit this mold. I am keeping Practical Move in here, because although his sire, Practical Joke, did not win a race of 1 1/6 miles, he did have five career wins, two of which were 1 mile, so the winning pedigree remains.
Remaining Contenders’ Pedigrees
Tapit Trice (Tapit – Danzatrice by Dunkirk)
Forte (Violence – Queen Caroline by Blame)
Angel of Empire (Classic Empire – Armony’s Angel by To Honor and Serve)
Lord Miles (Curlin – Lady Esme by Majestic Warrior)
Skinner (Curlin – Winding Way by Malibu Moon)
Practical Move (Practical Joke – Ack Naughty by Afleet Alex)
These six horses are the best bets to either win or hit the board on Saturday with Skinner and Lord Miles adding the most juice to your exotics. We can further apply more recent trends to these six contenders and whittle them down even more.
- 9 of the last 11 winners had never raced at Churchill Down prior to the Derby. All six horses check this box.
- 7 of the last 11 champs had at least three previous victories. Five of the six horses fit this, with the odd horse out being Skinner, who despite having only one win, has three third-place finishes, including two behind Practical Move. This gives him plenty of experience hitting the board but likely precludes him from the Winner’s Circle on Saturday.
- 10 of the last 11 to hit the winner’s circle drew posts either between 5-8 or 13-19. This leaves only Tapit Trice, Angel of Empire, Forte, and Lord Miles.
- None of the last 11 winners and just one of the last 41 won the Wood Memorial in their final prep race. This knocks out Lord Miles, despite him chasing down fellow Derby entrant Hit Show to win the Wood Memorial at 59-1 odds.
- None of the last 11 winners and only 1 of the last 33 won the Blue Grass, or even raced in it, for their final prep race. This leaves us with just Angel of Empire and Forte.
Final Thoughts
Forte has everything going for him and is the favorite for a reason. He was voted American Champion Two-Year-Old Male Horse in 2022 and boasts six career victories, including two this year (Fountain of Youth (G2) and Florida Derby (G1)). Forte also looks to be the first Florida Derby winner to wear the wreath of roses since Always Dreaming in 2017. One thing possibly working against him is that his highest Beyer Speed Rating as a 3-year-old was a 98 at the Fountain of Youth back in March. This does not bode well for the favorite, Forte, on paper, as 11 of the previous 13 Kentucky Derby winners posted 100+ BSFs. The only two horses in the past 11 years to get the victory with a BSF under 100 were California Chrome (97) in 2014 and Country House (97) in 2019 but the latter did not cross the finish line first and was instead awarded the win when Maximum Security was disqualified. That being said, of the 20 horses in this year’s Derby only Two Phil’s (101) has hit a figure above 100 but Forte is one of nine horses to have posted 95+ BSFs in the young careers. This could signal a strong, deep field but not one with much blazing speed to match the torrid starts of recent years. Despite all that, Forte is a winner having won six of his seven career races, including five straight. Remember what I said about winners stringing Ws together? He simply outruns his Bayer Speed Figure and has a nose for the finish line. The latter serves horses well on Derby Day.
Angel of Empire is a four-time winner in his own right and has the pedigree to back it up. He was sired by Classic Empire, the 2016 unanimous American Champion Two-Year-Old Male Horse, and winner of the 2017 Arkansas Derby, which included a late kick for the ages. Angel of Empire’s sire also hit the board after a perilous start to the Kentucky Derby and had he not been wearing blinkers and been unable to see Cloud Computing coming up behind him to know to hit the afterburners would no doubt have won the Preakness. Angel of Empire’s grandsire is Pioneerof the Nile, sire to Triple Crown champion American Pharoah, so he has elite championship DNA. I would love nothing more than to see this son of Classic Empire draped in the roses on Saturday to cement his father’s legacy as a champion stud. Angel of Empire checks all the boxes to give him as good of a chance as any at Churchill Downs this weekend. Better than most.
Despite the poor trend attached to horses winning the Blue Grass, I still like Tapit Trice‘s pedigree and would not be surprised if he bucks the trend and becomes the first horse since Strike the Gold in 1991 to win both the Blue Grass and Kentucky Derby. Even if he doesn’t win, I expect him to hit the board, especially because he drew the coveted 5-post that had produced 10 Kentucky Derby winners since 1930. Tapit’s kids have a tendency to hit the board.
The same goes for Lord Miles, who has shown he has race in him with the late kick to buck the aforementioned negative trend associated with the Wood Memorial. Additionally, Skinner just knows how to hit the board. Both he and Lord Miles both bring their longer odds to juice up the exotic bets. On top of all of this, with the Kentucky Derby being the Super Bowl of horse racing, there is so much money bet across the board on Derby Day that even a chalk exotics can pay nearly triple-digit returns, meaning that Skinner and Lord Miles could potentially give the exotics four-figure potential.
Best Boxed Superfecta: Angel of Empire – Forte – Tapit Trice – Skinner – Lord Miles (14-15-5-9-19)
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Luke Monaldo is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @MoKnowsSports. For more from Luke, check out his archive.