2023 Masters Tournament: Best Longshot Picks & Predictions
With the 2023 Valero Texas Open in the rearview mirror, we now look forward to this week’s Masters Tournament. As always, Augusta National will host this iconic event.
Augusta is a par-72, 7,545-yard track that rewards the best ball strikers and those who can work their way around the green. Looking at the top of previous leaderboards, the two metrics that predict the most success at this tournament are SG: Tee to Green and SG: Around the Green.
Below, I will give out my two best longshot bets to win the 2023 Masters Tournament.
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2023 Masters Tournament: Best Longshot Bets
These plays are 0.2u and 0.1u, or 0.2% and 0.1% of your betting bankroll.
Jason Day (+3200 via BetRivers): 0.2u
The first golfer we are targeting this week is Jason Day, who currently sits at 32/1 at BetRivers Sportsbook. Putting together a tremendous campaign thus far, Day sits in 19th place in the FedEx Cup Standings.
Entering this week in particularly great form, Day has made each of his last six cuts in stroke-play events. Not only has he finished inside the top 20 in all six of those tournaments, but he boasts four top-10 finishes, including his fifth-place finish at the WM Phoenix Open in a competitive field.
He also finished T10 at the QBE Shootout (an unofficial event) and T5 at the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play just two weeks ago. The main reason for Day’s terrific play this season has been his iron game.
On TOUR this season, he ranks 10th in SG: Tee to Green. Additionally, Day will benefit from his terrific greenside play, ranking 23rd on TOUR this season in SG: Around the Green.
Augusta is a familiar venue for Day, someone who has played here 11 times. Over that stretch, he boasts six top-20 and three top-five finishes, including his runner-up performance in 2011. At 32/1, it is worth taking a shot on Day to get over the hump.
Chris Kirk (+21500 via FanDuel): 0.1u
Another golfer to target this week is Chris Kirk, who sits at a whopping 215/1 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Playing the best golf of his career this season, Kirk currently sits in seventh place in the FedEx Cup Standings and has moved up to 32nd in the Official World Golf Rankings.
Entering this week in outstanding form, Kirk has made six of his last eight cuts. Of those six made-cuts, he boasts four top-10 finishes, including his victory at The Honda Classic at the end of February.
With his stellar greenside work, Kirk ranks 12th on TOUR this season in SG: Around the Green. Meanwhile, his ball striking is also excellent, ranking 32nd in SG: Tee to Green.
The reason for Kirk’s absurd 215/1 price is that he has never found a tremendous amount of success at Augusta. While he has made the cut twice over his three appearances here, Kirk’s highest finish was his 20th-place performance in 2014.
However, considering that he is currently playing the best golf of his career, 215/1 is too long to pass up.
Other Outright Plays:
- Jon Rahm (+935 via FanDuel): 0.4u
- Jordan Spieth (+1850 via Circa): 1.3u
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.