The PGA Tour is headed sur de la frontera this week for the Mexico Open at Vidanta. It kicked off its inaugural status as a PGA Tour event last season with una explosión, when Spaniard Jon Rahm took home the victory. Rahm, along with a few other big names, have returned to the state of Jalisco in hopes of a fiesta on Sunday.
Vidanta Vallarta is one of the easiest courses on the PGA Tour, stretching to nearly 7,500 yards with a par of 71. Bomb-and-gouge was the strategy last season and will be again this week. Tony Finau finished runner-up in 2022 and is back this year, as well. Co-runner-up Kurt Kitayama is taking the week off. I fully expect a winning score of 20-under par or better, even though Rahm won at 17-under in 2022.
2023 Mexico Open Odds, Picks & Predictions
Key stats that will help compile my weighted model for the week will include Strokes Gained from Tee to Green (SG:T2G) and Birdie-or-Better Percentage (BOB%). Extra emphasis on driving distance will help push some of the bombers to the top of my player pool. Success on resort-style golf courses will also play a part in choosing the right golfers to lay bets on. With such a top-heavy field this week, it might be my most conservative array of tickets all season. Here are my favorite wagers this week.
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Wyndham Clark (Outright +1600 [1u]; Top-10 +180 [1u])
I came away very impressed with Wyndham Clark at last week’s Zurich Classic. He was anchored down heavily by Beau Hossler spraying errant shots all over the course, yet the pair still finished strongly in the event. Clark is one of the longest hitters on tour and has already made 12 eagles this season. Where Rahm and Finau have odds that are more than crippling, the former Oregon Duck has all the firepower to land us a major payday.
Nicolai Hojgaard (Outright +3000 [0.5u]; Top-10 +280 [1u])
Speaking of firepower, 22-year-old Nicolai Hojgaard from Denmark hits the ball a country mile. The lanky Dane finished second in Puntacana last month and has made all nine cuts on the season between the DP World Tour and PGA Tour. Out of those nine events, he has cracked the top-10 four times. The future of golf is teeming with exciting young talent. Hojgaard should be considered near the top of that list.
Eric Cole (Outright +8000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +280 [0.5u])
Where Eric Cole lacks distance off the tee, he more than makes up for it by scoring at an elite level. Cole has been outstanding on approach this season and is among the strongest putters on Tour. His scoring average ranks in the top quarter of the field this week, especially in Round 4 and on par-5 holes. Such a proficient birdie maker gives me a lot of confidence that Cole will outplay his long odds this week.
Akshay Bhatia (Outright +9000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +300 [0.5u])
Here we go again. I am a huge Akshay Bhatia supporter and will ardently bet him until he catches up to his immense potential with a win on Tour. Bhatia’s strength is on approach, as he ranks third in this field in proximity on approach. He also is number one in this entire field in Good Drives Percentage and par-4 scoring. If he can muster up some decent form around the green this week, Bhatia could be hoisting his first trophy at Vidanta.
Dylan Wu (Top-20 +330 [0.5u])
Coincidentally, Dylan Wu is in no way related to last year’s runner-up at the Mexico Open, Brandon Wu. Brandon’s course history here inflates his odds considerably, whereas I much prefer the recent form of Dylan. Wu comes in 10th in this field in my weighted model, despite ranking toward the bottom in driving distance. His approach game is very strong and he has made seven consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour this season, including a top-10 finish at the Honda Classic and a 16th-place finish at Puntacana a couple of weeks ago. I do not expect him to push the top of the leaderboard, but he is offering a strong payout for a T-20 in this deflated field.
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