2023 MLB Home Run Derby First-Round Matchup Picks: Luis Robert Jr. vs. Adley Rutschman
The All-Star Break is here and the events are fruitful throughout the week. Between the Future Stars Game, the Home Run Derby, and the All-Star game itself, it should hardly be considered a break.
As for how the seeding works, the top seeds are the players who had the most home runs through July 4th. The tiebreaker, which was used for Luis Robert Jr. and Pete Alonso, was who hit the most tanks since June 15th.
- How to Watch the 2023 MLB Home Run Derby
- 2023 MLB Home Run Derby Odds, Picks & Predictions
- 2023 MLB Home Run Derby First-Round Picks
- More MLB Betting Advice
- MLB Best Betting Odds
Home Run Derby First-Round Matchups & Picks: Luis Robert Jr. vs. Adley Rutschman
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
#1 Luis Robert Jr. (-215) vs. #8 Adley Rutschman (+175)
Luis Robert Jr. has come on strong after a pedestrian start to the year. As of this writing, he is tied for third in long balls with 26. Adley Rutschman is currently 88th in the Majors with just 11 home runs.
I don't even know how much I need to say about this matchup, I'm riding with Luis Robert Jr. to advance at -215. Of course, the Home Run Derby is different from your standard baseball game, but a few analytics that I think will carry over to HRD are how players compare in terms of flyball rate and ground ball rate.
Rutschman owns a 41.0% GB% and 35.7% FB% while Robert Jr. is 40.1% and 38.0% in those respective categories. It's not a huge disparity, but Robert Jr. has the edge in that he puts the ball in the air more often. He's better conditioned and has more homers on the year, so I'm rolling with the White Sox outfielder to advance.
Bet: Luis Robert Jr. To Advance (-215)