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2023 MLB Home Run Derby Odds, Picks & Predictions

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Many intriguing storylines set the backdrop for what should be a fun and fascinating Home Run Derby. First, can Pete Alonso become the second three-time winner of the contest, joining Ken Griffey Jr. while winning his third in Griffey’s hometown? Or will Seattle Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez end Alonso’s quest for a three-peat for a second consecutive year (he beat him 31-24 last year to advance to the Derby finals) while being spurred on by the home crowd?

On the other side of the bracket, what kind of show will the three Cuban-born participants (Luis Robert, Adolis Garcia, and Randy Arozarena) put on? They are the first three Cubans to participate in the Derby since Yasiel Puig in 2014, and they will all look to become the second Cuban players to win the Derby after Yoenis Cespedes won back-to-back titles in 2013 and 2014.

One thing is for sure: the Derby rule changes from outs to a pitch clock will result in many more home runs than the total of 66 that were hit in the entire event the last time Seattle hosted the event in 2001.

So who do we like to win the 2023 Home Run Derby, and what other wagers caught our eye?

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2023 MLB Home Run Derby Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to beat Adolis Garcia in the final (+1300) 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. may have a gripe with the current Home Run Derby format, as he walked away with nothing to show for his 91 home runs in 2019, the most ever in the event’s history. However, that should only motivate him more this year, and his knowledge of navigating the event should give him a significant advantage, especially if he makes it out of the right side of the bracket, which also features two-time champion Pete Alonso.

As one of the heaviest hitters in the competition, many will suggest Guerrero will get tired the longer the event goes. But he did not look tired in 2019, backing up his 40-home runs in a third-round victory over Joc Pederson with another 22 in the finals. And Guerrero also has the lowest launch angle per average home run of all eight competitors, so we expect his long balls to leave in a hurry, preserving valuable time on the pitch clock.

Guerrero “only” has 13 home runs this season, but last year’s winner, Juan Soto, also had a quiet first half before lifting the trophy. His 109.1 MPH average home run exit velocity is third in MLB, only behind Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuna. We cannot argue with a player who hit 38,641 feet (more than seven miles) of home runs the last time he competed in this event, and that experience will serve him well in getting over the hump this year.

We are also high on Texas Rangers slugger Adolis Garcia, despite him having what many consider to be a “coin-flip” first-round matchup against Randy Arozarena. Garcia’s 23 home runs are the most among AL right fielders, and his five opposite-field home runs are tied for the second-most in the league. He has short, strong arms and a compact swing that does not get too long, which plays well in this event. Perhaps most importantly, Garcia has an experienced person pitching to him in third base coach Tony Beasley, who has already thrown in this event to Joey Gallo. Garcia knows the ballpark well, playing in the same division as the Mariners, which should also benefit him from a comfort level in the early rounds.

Luis Robert Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. parlay to win first-round matchups (+116)

Luis Robert arguably has the easiest first-round matchup facing Adley Rutschman, who has the lowest barrel rate of all eight competitors. Meanwhile, Robert has the highest barrel rate, and history is working against Rutschman, as just four switch hitters have advanced past the first round in Derby history. In addition, Ruben Sierra is the only switch hitter ever to win the Derby, way back in 1989.

Robert’s 26 home runs are the most among MLB outfielders this season. And he comes in hot to this event, as his ten home runs since June 15 are the third-most in MLB over that span, while he hit 11 total home runs in June. Robert should get by Rutschman easily in the first round, as he owns the advantage in the average home run distance (406.3 ft vs. 397.7 ft) and average exit velocity (106.6 mph vs. 104.6 mph).

We already laid out why we like Guerrero to win the event, which starts with the significant advantage he will have over his first-round opponent, Mookie Betts. Guerrero’s average home run distance is the longest of all derby participants. Thus, he figures to benefit from the additional 30-second bonus awarded to batters who hit multiple 440-ft home runs in a round, while the diminutive Betts will struggle to reach that mark.


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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