2023 NBA Playoffs Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (4/15)
Now that the Play-In games are done and all of the playoff matchups are set, let’s take a look at some of the best bets for Saturday’s games.
Saturday’s Best NBA Bets
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers
How much trust do you have in Philadelphia this postseason? The 76ers are rightful favorites, but I can’t avoid betting on the Nets at this price.
The last time these two teams met at full strength, Philly was a -2 point road favorite, escaping with an unlikely win vs the new-look Nets, in a game in which they were thoroughly outplayed. Through a purely transitive lens, it is ludicrous that the Sixers are now favored to such a degree. The change in venue is not enough to justify a 6.5-point swing, and the Nets’ team chemistry now is certainly greater than it was back on February 11th.
In this previous game, the Nets had no answer for Joel Embiid, and James Harden too was excellent– but the rest of Philly’s supporting cast was stymied. I find it foolish to expect the 76ers’ bench/supporting cast to be the differentiator in this matchup, and it is doubtful that the duo of Embiid and Harden can be as impactful as they were in this previous game (combined 66 points, 19 rebounds, 8 assists). Also note that Harden has not been his usual self lately, as it has been speculated that a lingering Achilles injury has impacted his play.
In summation: the 76ers’ home-court advantage is not enough to justify such a large spread, and it would take a strong performance from Philly’s supporting cast to cover this number. Back the Nets to keep things sticky in Game 1 of the series.
Bet: Nets +8.5 (-110)
New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers
I have some worries regarding how the Knicks’ offense will fare vs the full-strength Cleveland defense, but this total is too low to pass up on.
The Over/Under was set higher for each matchup between these two teams in the regular season, with the result going comfortably Over both times the teams met in Cleveland. Neither team has answers defensively for each other’s backcourt, as the likes of Donovan Mitchell and Jalen Brunson consistently submitted exemplary offensive performances versus one another, and (as a whole) the Knicks and Cavs rate 4th and 8th respectively in Net Offensive Rating on the season.
It’s difficult to fully grasp how the nature of the postseason may alter the pace/scoring output of this game, but I do think it’s foolish to assume less offense simply because it is no longer the regular season. These two teams are familiar with each other and would have skied over this Total in their last date with one another. It is worth noting that Cleveland C Jarrett Allen missed this game due to injury, and though his presence is most notably felt on the defensive end, his replacement in the starting lineup (Lamar Stevens) is a net better defensive player per 538’s RAPTOR Ratings than Allen.
Bet on these Guards to continue to find success in this matchup, and short the bookmakers dropping this total so significantly simply because it’s a postseason matchup.
Bet: Over 216.5 (-110)
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts