2023 NBA Playoffs First Basket Scorer Picks & Predictions: Saturday (4/15)
After an exciting week of Play-In games, we are finally getting started with the first round of the NBA Playoffs. Saturday brings us four games, and with a whole day of NBA action, there is no better time to make some plays on First Baskets. Here are three of my favorite plays of the day.
Season to Date: 15-42-5, +6.89 units
Saturday’s Best NBA First Basket Scorer Bets
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers
If you've been following my First Basket picks this season, you know where I'm going here. Joel Embiid is likely to be earning the MVP after an incredible season in which he led the league in scoring. He also led the league in First Baskets. I've taken him many times this season, and it has steered us right in many of those instances.
The matchup with Brooklyn is favorable for Embiid as well. The Nets have given up nearly 30% of their first field goals to opposing centers which bodes well here. Obviously, the Nets team we'll see on Saturday isn't the same team we saw all year, but Claxton has been a fixture in the paint, so the matchup is fairly consistent.
In a game that occurred post-trade deadline between these two, Embiid managed to win the tip and score the First Basket. I hate to use the "L-word," but this is a legacy postseason for Embiid. I expect him motivated and ready to make his mark early in this series with a First Basket cash.
Pick: 0.25u on Joel Embiid (+280)
New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers
This is perhaps the most intriguing matchup of the first round in the Eastern Conference. More so than maybe any other series, this one has a chance to go the distance. When it comes to First Baskets, there is also a lot of intrigue.
Season numbers show no real edge between Mitchell Robinson and Jarrett Allen when it comes to the opening tipoff. In addition, both teams scored first field goals in over half of their games. In order to find a First Basket play I like here, I needed to find a matchup edge, and we have that with Julius Randle.
The matchup with Cleveland is interesting, as the Cavaliers have struggled against opposing power forwards. On the season, about a quarter of opposing first field goals came to power forwards. This is a matchup I expect Randle to expose as he led the Knicks in scoring this season. He's a little banged up with an ankle injury, but if he's on the court, he's a strong play for First Basket.
Pick: 0.25u on Julius Randle (+475)
Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings
The Kings will be hosting their first playoff game in 17 years. Unfortunately for them, they host the reigning world champion Warriors. Golden 1 Center will be rocking, but I like the Warriors to quiet the crowd early with a First Basket.
Domantas Sabonis is one of the worst opening tip centers in the league. He wins at under a 33% rate. Kevon Looney is only about league average, but that is a huge edge. With that information, there is a certain matchup I have my eye on.
It may not be their biggest weakness defensively, but the Kings give up first field goals to shooting guards at an above-average rate. This screams Klay Thompson to me. The Warriors love to go to Klay early, and he's been successful at scoring First Baskets all year. I'm going with him to cash one here and get the Warriors' title defense started in the 2023 Postseason.
Pick: 0.25u on Klay Thompson (+420)
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