2023 NBA Playoffs: Warriors vs. Kings Series Odds, Picks & Predictions

by Pat Fitzmaurice |
Apr 13, 2023

The Golden State Warriors, the defending NBA champions, have a first-round series against the Sacramento Kings, who are making their first playoff appearance in 17 years. This is a fun matchup that inevitably ends with Golden State advancing, right? Well, here's the twist: The upstart Kings have the home-court advantage as the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, while the sixth-seeded Warriors just barely avoided a play-in game.

The Warriors are still heavy favorites to win the series (-275 on DraftKings), but should they be? Let's take a closer look at what should be a fun, fast-paced, high-scoring series.

Golden State Warriors Overview/Playoff Outlook

Plagued by injuries and inconsistency early in the season, the Warriors were 29-29 at the All-Star break but went 15-9 down the stretch to secure the sixth seed. Golden State has won eight of its last 10 games. The starting lineup of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins and Kevon Looney has been dominant this season. Unfortunately, the Warriors haven't been able to use that five-man combo as often as they would have liked, with Curry and Wiggins both missing significant time during the season. Wiggins missed the final 25 games of the regular season as his father dealt with a medical crisis. He's expected to play in this series, but will he be ready to play 30-plus minutes a game after the long layoff? Jordan Poole has given Golden State a spark off the bench, averaging 20.4 points per game, but the Warriors don't have a lot of firepower off the bench otherwise. That's likely to mean a lot of minutes for the Golden State starters. Curry is 35. Thompson and Green are both 33. Just sayin'

Sacramento Kings Overview/Playoff Outlook

The Kings are an offensive juggernaut. Their offensive efficiency is the biggest reason that they went 48-34 and have home-court advantage in the first round. Sacramento's offensive rating of 118.6 was the highest in the league this season, and the Kings' offensive rating since the All-Star break is 121.6. Sacramento also ranks first in true shooting percentage (60.8%), second in effective field goal percentage (57.2%) and second in assist/turnover ratio (2.02). The Kings have a dynamic duo in point guard De'Aaron Fox and center Domantas Sabonis, who form one of the best pick-and-roll tandems in the league. Fox averages 25.0 points and 6.1 assists per game. Sabonis averages 19.1 points, 12.3 rebounds and a team-high 7.3 assists while shooting 61.5% from the floor. Fox and Sabonis are surrounded by sharpshooters: Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, Malik Monk and rookie Keegan Murray average a combined 8.8 three-pointers a game, and all four average between 15.2 and 12.2 points per game. If the Kings have a weakness, it's defense. Their defensive rating of 116.0 ranked 24th in the league. And they'll be facing a Golden State team that specializes in exploiting defensive flaws.

Season Series

The Warriors won the season series 3-1. Golden State and Sacramento faced each other three times in the first month of the season. The Warriors beat the Kings 130-125 at home on Oct. 23, then beat them at home again 116-113 on Nov. 7. The Kings took down the Warriors 122-115 on Nov. 13. The two teams' most recent meeting was on April 7, and the Warriors rolled to a 119-97, victory, as the Kings had their 3-seed secured and rested Fox, Sabonis, Monk and Huerter.

Series Prediction

Warriors in seven games. It's tempting to pick the Kings. They've had a fabulous regular season. They've been terrific in road games, going 25-16. The Warriors' defense has been poor away from home. But the Warriors have won four of the last eight NBA championships for good reason: The Curry-Thompson-Green triumvirate is lethal in big games.

Best Bets

Series correct score: Warriors win 4-3 (+550 via DraftKings): With a number this plump and juicy, the oddsmakers clearly arenâ€™t expecting this series to go seven games. Hey, Iâ€™m picking the Warriors, but letâ€™s show the Kings due respect. Hereâ€™s betting they push the Warriors to the limit.

Kings to win Game 1, Warriors to win the series (+210 via DraftKings): The Kings win the first battle, the Warriors win the war.

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