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2023 NCAA Tournament: Elite 8 Best Bets (Sunday)

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It has been a roller coaster and-a-half this tournament with a number of thrilling games. As we reach the final two games of the weekend, let's keep it going with some winning plays. Here are my three best bets for Elite Eight Day 2. 

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2023 NCAA Tournament: Elite 8 Best Bets

Creighton vs. San Diego State Under 135 (-110 via DraftKings)

These two teams are already defensively based with San Diego State ranking fourth in KenPom defense and Creighton at 14th. The number is already low but Evan Miya and Bart Torvik project this total at 133 while Haslametrics has it at 133.5. There is value in the under.

It makes sense, based on how well these two defenses line up with the opposing offenses. Creighton has a preference for the perimeter look with the 54th highest-ranked three-point attempts per possession in the nation. The Aztecs’ third-ranked perimeter defense has followed through already, limiting Alabama to 11 percent from deep. Creighton is going to struggle from where they prefer to shoot and even if they adjust and do well down low, I still like that for the under.

San Diego State on the other hand ranks 48th in mid-range attempts per possession. Creighton may allow a high number of mid-range looks but they far outrank SDSU defensively with the 56th mid-range defense compared to the Aztecs' 240th-ranked mid-range offense. There will be a lot of contested looks in this game, and very few second-chance opportunities, which makes me love the under.

Keshad Johnson Under 7.5 points (-118 via FanDuel)

To go along with the under in this game, I am fading the Aztecs’ frontcourt. Johnson takes 57 percent of his shots at the rim with a 40 percent free throw rate. I've mentioned the Blue Jays' mid-range defense and their near-proximity defense also ranks 14th in the nation to go along with their second-best defensive free throw rate in the nation. 

Creighton has the 61st tallest average size and that's led by Ryan Kalkbrenner's 7-1 frame. He has the 102nd-best block rate in the nation as the effective shot blocker he is to pair with the fact he doesn't foul much. Johnson won't get anything easy down low, and won't get sent to the charity stripe, so I'm riding his points total under.

Timmy Allen Over 10.5 Points (-115 via FanDuel)

Full disclosure, my ability to handicap Miami games this tournament has been awful as I am 0-3 in my general prediction of how they would do. But I trust the numbers, and the numbers here are loud.

Texas not only prefers the mid-range look but Miami allows it with Haslametrics projecting 32 percent of their looks to come from that range, four percent over the D-I average. The Longhorns dominate with their jumpers, ranking 26th in the nation at the mid-range look compared to Miami's 282nd-ranked mid-range defense. Timmy Allen shoots the most jumpers by far on Texas with 61 percent of his looks coming between the rim and beyond the arc.

With Dylan Disu presumably out, the offensive playmakers are going to have to step up against Miami's 103rd-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency. Eventually, Miami has to come down to earth, right? Allen should get a lot of open looks where he excels so I'm riding his points over total tonight.

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