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2023 NCAA Tournament Final Four Player Prop Bet Picks

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March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.

I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.

Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.

  • 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
  • 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
  • 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
  • 2023: 293-225, +53.25 units (Through Elite 8)

In addition to projecting players this year, I’m also teaming up with some folks here behind the scenes to create official team forecasts for every NCAA tournament game.

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2023 March Madness Player Prop Bets

All betting odds are from:

Florida Atlantic vs. San Diego State

Florida Atlantic

Prop Odds Units To Win Book
Vladislav Goldin Over 15.5 PRAs -106 1.06 1 UB

San Diego State

Prop Odds Units To Win Book
Micah Parrish Under 12.5 PRAs -120 1.2 1 DK

For the rest of my prop bets and all of my player projections, check out my premium projections and picks article for the game >>

Miami vs. UConn

Miami

Prop Odds Units To Win Book
Isaiah Wong Over 2.5 Assists 148 1 1.48 UB

UConn

Prop Odds Units To Win Book
Adama Sanogo Under 8.5 Rebounds -120 1.2 1 UB

For the rest of my prop bets and all of my player projections, check out my premium projections and picks article for the game >>

Get access to expert NCAA Tournament picks now >>

Here’s what I expect to be my general flow for working and betting over the course of March Madness.

  1. Monitor our premium spread projections and total projections.
  2. Track any team-level bets I make in our BettingPros app. I don’t plan to go too heavy into this market since this is my first year with NCAA game projections.
  3. Do player projections (points, rebounds, assists, three-pointers made and free throws made).
  4. Publish a premium article for every game with all of my player projections and prop bets. Since I don’t follow college basketball, I won’t provide any analysis with my picks, especially given the time crunch of March Madness. Just doesn’t seem worth it.
  5. Post some of my favorite player props in our FREE BettingPros Discord.

If there’s a bet that you like or injury situation you think I should be aware of when doing projections, please hit me up on Twitter @MattFtheOracle.

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More Player Prop Bet Picks

Find all of our player prop bets here >>


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