2023 NCAA Tournament: Notable Betting Trends (March Madness)
It is the greatest time of year. We finally have our bracket and the countdown to March Madness can begin. BettingPros will be covering March Madness in every which way from champion selections to trends to Cinderella selections, we will have it all. Here, I will be covering NCAA Tournament teams and betting trends that stick out to me for your money-making favor.
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Best Tournament Teams ATS
- Pittsburgh (22-10-1 ATS)
- Florida Atlantic (21-10-1 ATS)
- Texas A&M (23-11 ATS)
It helps that one of the play-in teams has the best ATS record among any tournament team so you will have something to bet on before the actual tournament even starts. A lot of bracketologists not only had Pittsburgh comfortably in the field but as a 10-seed nonetheless. It was a bit of a surprise to see the Panthers as a last-four team to make it. Now with the quick turnaround, they will try to continue their solid ATS ways as a consensus two-point underdog.
The early round game against Mississippi State is the Pitt offense against Mississippi State defense. Pittsburgh lines up remarkably well against the Bulldogs and should get a lot of outside looks. The trend is your friend, so don't think too hard about taking Pittsburgh.
FAU has also been an underrated team all season, and I believe they were under-seeded, considering they rank 26th in KenPom. The Owls 11th ranked interior defense should give Kendric Davis a headache while their 30th-ranked perimeter shooting should do quite well against Memphis' interior-based defense. As a 3.0-point underdog on DraftKings, that seems like an easy selection to me.
Texas A&M is the team I am most hesitant to follow the trend as Penn State is a tough draw for the Aggies. Both teams are hotter than lava right now and Penn State's perimeter shooting is not good for how Buzz Williams runs his offense. Proceed with caution when selecting Texas A&M -2.5 on BetMGM.
Best Tournament Teams Over
- Grand Canyon (25-8 Over Record)
- SE Missouri State (21-12 Over Record)
- Xavier (21-12-1 Over Record)
These three teams make up some of the most underrated offenses in the nation, with these teams consistently going over the point total.
Grand Canyon has the perfect dancing partner to go over the point total in Gonzaga – the best-rated offense with the 76th defense. The Antelopes are lights out from beyond the arc where Gonzaga allows a lot of opponents scoring to come from, and I can't imagine Grand Canyon stopping the Zags in the interior. This will be an awesome game to watch and it will be a lot of fun to root for points here.
SE Missouri State vs. Texas A&M Corpus Christi is another game where I expect a lot of points to be had. Both teams get to the charity stripe often with both defenses fouling at a high clip. There will be a lot of points scored here without the clock running, so be sure to get some popcorn because I would hammer the over on time of the game too.
Kennesaw State is the most worthy opponent to go against Xavier's over-trend, as the Owls will slow down Xavier in an attempt to keep up with them. I would lean toward the other two games if you are wanting to see some points
Best Tournament Teams Under
- Iowa State (21-11 Under Record)
- Maryland (21-12 Under Record)
- Kent State (20-12 Under Record)
Iowa State is waiting on the play-in game winner but I would fade the trend in whoever they match up against. Typically, a play-in winner has a bit more experience under their belt with a game already played and can bring momentum into their matchup. Iowa State's defense is elite, but their offense isn't too bad either so I wouldn't be surprised by their out-scoring expectations.
Maryland-West Virginia on the other hand might be the best under play in the entire first round. Both teams play with slower paces and line up well defensively against each other. Despite West Virginia's higher-ranked offensive analytics, they have been known to have dud games and Maryland plays much worse offensively when playing anywhere outside the Xfinity Center.
Indiana had a tough draw against Kent State with the Golden Flashes’ defense lining up near perfectly against the Hoosiers. Kent State allows almost nothing inside – Indiana's bread and butter – while Kent State can force turnovers as well. This game not only has 'under' written all over it, but maybe 'upset' too?
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