2023 NCAA Tournament: Round 1 Picks & Predictions (Thursday)

by BettingPros Staff |
Mar 16, 2023

March Madness opened Tuesday and Wednesday with the First Four, but now the real Big Dance begins! Thursday officially kicks off Round 1 of the 2023 NCAA Tournament, and BettingPros will have you covered. Before things tip off this afternoon be sure to get your bracket optimized and all of your betting picks placed. To help, here are our top picks for Thursdayâ€™s Round 1 college basketball action.

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Round 1 Picks & Predictions for Thursday

Maryland vs. West Virginia

The committee did a tremendous job of providing some highly intriguing 8-9 matchups, and this showdown between West Virginia and Maryland is no exception. Both teams are capable of giving top-seeded Alabama a run for their money in the Round of 32.

Both the Mountaineers and Terrapins are hard-nosed, physical teams that aren't great at shooting from the floor. While I believe West Virginia hails from the better conference, the Terrapins have an answer to all of West Virginia's strengths. The Mountaineers crash the offensive glass, and Maryland is respectable in defensive rebounding. West Virginia gets to the free-throw line at the 20th-best rate in the country, and Maryland does a good job of defending without fouling. West Virginia ranks 51st in turning opponents over, and Maryland ranks 49th in turnover percentage. The Terps are also a top-40 defensive team that defends well inside and out.

That all being said, Maryland has been a remarkably different team away from home. I'll lean with the Terps but view this game as a true coin flip.

Pick: Maryland +2.5 (-110)

Northwestern vs. Boise State

Chris Collins has Northwestern into the NCAA tournament for just the second time in school history. This is a team that finished second in the Big Ten standings but has some flaws. First off, they don't shoot well. They are 320th in effective field goal percentage and have a free throw attempt rate outside of the top 200. They have an ability to muck things up defensively, slow teams down, force them to take bad shots and make mistakes.

Boise State is also a team that likes to muck things up defensively. Like Northwestern, the Broncos like to slow the game down. Typically this style works to throw off teams that aren't well disciplined but it's a strategy that won't have the same effect against a team like Northwestern. This game is going to be ugly. It is going to be slow and low scoring.

Both of these teams are experienced squads that like to play in the muck. Even though they're the 10-seed in this 7-10 matchup, Boise State should have a slight edge given they're a better shooting team overall.

Pick: Boise State ML (+108)

Texas A&M vs. Penn State

As a fan of both of these teams, this seems to be a ridiculously unfortunate draw for both squads. Coming off championship title game losses for both organizations, they are still playing their best basketball right now, with the Aggies ranking sixth in Bart Torvik since Jan. 1 and Penn State winning eight of their final 10 games to make the tournament.

This is an unfortunate draw for Texas A&M, which has an interior-based defense, allowing opponents to earn 37 percent of their opponent points to come from beyond the arc. Penn State shoots at a 38 percent clip from deep - ninth best in the nation. The Nittany Lions also defensively do a solid job at avoiding sending opponents to the charity stripe, something the Aggies depend on heavily. But with Penn State's dependence on three-pointers, they aren't the most consistent team. Especially on a neutral court with different rims, they might struggle at the start. My advice would be to tease a team against the spread five points either way. A live bet for Penn State to make a comeback if they are down is a good call too as we have seen some major comebacks from the Nittany Lions plenty of times in the past, and Texas A&M is the perfect opponent to do it against.

Pick: Penn State +3 (-110)

UCLA vs. UNC Asheville

To start, Jaylen Clark is out for this tournament. One of the best defenders in the league on one of the best defenses in the league is a big hit to the Bruins. His loss is a big reason why they fell to Arizona in the Pac-12 title game. UNC Asheville is a worthy opponent, but this is not a great draw for the Bulldogs. An outside-in defense, they allow a lot of looks on the interior to opponents, and UCLA likes to go down low with their scoring as nearly 59 percent of their points come from inside the arc, the 17th highest in the nation.

Everyone knows Clark is out. That is going to bring this line closer than it should be but UCLA's top-ranked KenPom is still as elite as ever, something Asheville hasn't seen all season. They depend on getting to the charity stripe but the Bruins won't send them there all too often. Even with UCLA slowing down this game, I see Jaime Jaquez and Co. dominating here.

Pick: UCLA -17.5 (-110)

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