2023 NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16 Picks & Predictions (Thursday)

by BettingPros Staff |
Mar 23, 2023

The Round of 16 is here, and itâ€™s shaping up for a sweet weekend of college basketball. Weâ€™ll have you covered with our best bets throughout the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. Here are our top picks for Thursdayâ€™s Sweet 16 action.

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Sweet 16 Best Bets (2023 NCAA Tournament)

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Kansas State vs. Michigan State

The Kansas State Wildcats have been playing super loose throughout the Tournament. They've enjoyed themselves and will now enjoy a trip to Madison Square Garden to play in the Sweet 16 game against Michigan State.

This is going to be a close and tight game.

Kansas State is usually weak on the glass. The Wildcats have allowed 29.8% of offensive rebounds and were absolutely dominated on the glass by Kentucky in the Round of 32. Yet, Kansas State found a way to win thanks to their two senior leaders.

Meanwhile, the Spartans aren't incredibly active on the offensive glass. But they'll more than likely have success and earn more second chances in this game.

On the other hand, Kansas State usually turns the ball over 19.9% of the time. However, Michigan State isn't very aggressive at forcing steals. The Wildcats have hit only 33.6% from downtown and 52.7% from inside the arc. They'll be worse from downtown but better from inside the arc.

Don't expect Michigan State to continue to miss wide-open three-point shots as they did against Marquette. But think about it, Michigan State shot so poorly from three over the first two games in the Tournament and still won. Imagine what will happen when the shots fall.

Take Michigan State -2.

The pick: Michigan State -2 (-110)

UConn vs. Arkansas

Arkansas' victory over Kansas was remarkable but wasn't as smooth sailing as the final score indicates. After the first half, the Razorbacks were down by eight points, and they also played somewhat poorly in the second half as the Jayhawks fell apart even more so. Things would have looked quite different if the Jayhawks had not committed 23 fouls and prevented the Razorbacks from making 21 free throws.

A UConn team that penalizes opponents for poor shooting is now in front of the Razorbacks, as the Huskies allow just 64.7 points per game, and they grab 24.3 defensive rebounds per game in the process. In addition, they have only committed 15 fouls on average over their last three games, so the Razorbacks will likely spend less time at the charity stripe than they did in their previous game.

Moreover, UConn has a strong offensive game, scoring 78.5 points per game, and their ball movement causes fits for every team they play. Furthermore, the Huskies are 4-1 ATS against their last five SEC opponents, in addition to covering the spread in seven of their last eight games. I like for UConn to take this one rather easily, as they roll the Razorbacks from the jump.

The pick: UConn -3.5 (-110)

Tennessee vs. Florida Atlantic

The Tennessee Volunteers surprised everyone on Saturday, earning a major victory over Duke without Zakai Ziegler. The Vols were physical and tough. The defense was admirable, and the offense hit shots that they normally don't hit.

If that's the Tennessee we're going to get the rest of the way, the Vols will be incredibly hard to beat.

Florida Atlantic had multiple droughts trying to score the ball against Fairleigh Dickinson. It's going to get ugly on the offensive end for the Owls against Tennessee. They won't be able to match the physicality with Tennessee.

Tennessee will foul at a high rate but Florida Atlantic also doesn't get to the foul line at a high rate. They've also shot 71.5%, which isn't a ridiculous number.

The Vols should have major success on the offensive glass and if shots are going to fall at a higher rate, I've got Tennessee earning a five-point cover.

The pick: Tennessee -5 (-110)

UCLA vs. Gonzaga

This could end up being the best game of the tournament, with my only question for UCLA being, can they sustain with all the injuries they've had to this point? The squad currently has a damaged roster, although David Singleton is anticipated to play despite an ankle injury. The team is starting to find more significant minutes from players, so they can at least go seven deep.

No matter what they do, UCLA must avoid getting into a shootout with Gonzaga, a type of game they will almost certainly lose.

The Bruin offense has no trouble keeping up, but the club is 0-3 when it surrenders more than 73 points. With the top-scoring assault in the country, Gonzaga has only missed 73 points four times this season.

While I took UCLA most of the regular season, I think a healthier, better-coached Gonzaga team gets it done here.

The pick: Gonzaga +2 (-110)

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