2023 NCAA Tournament Top Seeds: Contenders or Pretenders

by Andrew Mintner |
Mar 13, 2023

We are going to look at the top 16 teams in the tournament via seeds (1-4) and whether or not they potentially are Contenders or Pretenders. The statistics we will be using are from KenPom and a MasterSheet I have compiled for every tournament team over the last 20 years.

In previous articles, we have listed statistics that correlate to success and failure depending on seeds. Today we will list where the seeds rank in a couple of categories vs. their counterparts of previous years. If a (1) seed is listed as 50th in AdjOff that means they rank 50th vs. the other 80 (1) seeds of the past. By doing this type of comparative analysis, we can determine whether or not a team is on par with previous tournaments or should be on upset alert. Let's dive in!

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NCAA Tournament Top Seeds: Contenders or Pretenders

Hereâ€™s a look at all of the teams seeded 1 through 4.

1-seeds

Houston

42nd in AdjEM
53rd in AdjOff
40th in AdjDef
1st in TO/Reb Combo (Turnover % plus Offensive Reb %)
Def FT Rate over 34.50%

Alabama

57th in AdjEM
67th in AdjOff
26th in AdjDef
80th in TO/Reb Combo
Under +2.5 in TO/Reb Combo (+.03)
Top 20 in Tempo and Off 3pt Rate

Purdue

75th in AdjEM
45th in AdjOff
76th in AdjDef
41st in TO/Reb Combo

Kansas

79th in AdjEM
74th in AdjOff
56th in AdjDef
67th in TO/Reb Combo
Bottom 10 Off/without a top 10 Def

I have to say these are four of the most underwhelming 1-seeds ever. Remember, these rankings are out of 84 total teams. Alabama, Houston, and Kansas have two of the red flags that lead to underachievement, as previously discussed in other articles. The only catch is Houston ranks 1st in one of the more telling statistics of the TO/Reb combo. Purdue doesn't have any red flags or correlated successful statistics, they are just below average vs. previous 1-seeds. My first initial take is that we could be looking at a Final 4 with just one 1-seed or less. Last year Kansas was underwhelming as a 1-seed, but they were 69th in AdjEM, which is several points higher than their counterparts. I'm confident in penciling in Houston to the Final 4, but I easily could see the other three (1) seeds stumbling along the way.

2-seeds

UCLA

13th in AdjEM
62nd in AdjOff
10th in AdjDef
1st in TO/Reb Combo

Texas

54th in AdjEM
50th in AdjOff
43rd in AdjDef
27th in TO/Reb Combo

Arizona

65th in AdjEM
20th in AdjOff
79th in AdjDef
73rd in TO/Reb Combo (-.74)
Bottom 25 in AdjDef

Marquette

76th in AdjEM
26th in AdjOff
80th in AdjDef
38th in TO/Reb Combo
Bot 25 in AdjDef
Opponent Assist Rate over 56.3%

As you can see, we have some underwhelming 2-seeds as well. UCLA stands out to me as the strongest of the bunch. UCLA ranks first overall in TO/Reb combo out of all 84 2-seeds. Only three teams have made the Final Four with a negative TO/Reb combo (2003 Marquette, 2016 Oklahoma, and 2018 Loyola Chicago). There have been 29 tournament teams with a 1- through 4-seed with a negative TO/Reb margin, and only two have made the Final Four (7%). To give that a little perspective, seeds 1 through 4 represent 78% of the Final Four contestants. Arizona is not in good company in that regard. Marquette has a historically bad defense, and Texas is an average 2-seed. Let's move on to the (3) seeds and hope for some stability.

3-seeds

Gonzaga

17th in AdjEM
4th in AdjOff
78th in AdjDef
11th in TO/Reb combo

Baylor

66th in AdjEM
6th in AdjOff
83rd in AdjDef
76th in TO/Reb Combo (-.03)
Lost 1st game of Conference Tournament

Xavier

69th in AdjEM
12th in AdjOff
77th in AdjDef
55th in TO/Reb Combo
Top 20 in Assist Rate

Kansas State

78th in AdjEM
68th in AdjOff
54th in AdjDef
61st in TO/Reb Combo
Bottom 15 in AdjEM
Top 20 in Assist Rate

Well, again, we have some extremely unbalanced teams. Gonzaga stands out as the best 3-seed, but they have a historically bad AdjDef. Baylor has a plethora of red flags, including a negative TO/Reb combo, the second-worst adjust defense of all time for a (3) seed, and losing their first game in their conference tournament. Kansas State and Xavier share red flags in having high assist rates, which can lead to a lack of an isolation player to get a bucket when needed. Not to mention both Kansas State, Xavier, and Baylor are all below-average 3-seeds. This is shaping up to have the potential of a crazy tournament.

4-seeds

UCONN

8th in AdjEM
11th in AdjOff
48th in AdjDef
10th in TO/Reb Combo
Top 20 AdjOff
Top 20 AdjEM

Tennessee

16th in AdjEM
60th in AdjOff
4th in AdjDEf
4th in TO/Reb Combo
Top 20 AdjEM

Indiana

77th in AdjEM
43rd in AdjOff
71st in AdjDef
83rd in TO/Reb Combo (-2.84)

Virginia

78th in AdjEM
69th in AdjOff
53rd in AdjDef
71st in TO/Reb combo

At first glance, UCONN and Tennessee stand out amongst these 4-seeds. UCONN checks several boxes when it comes to correlated success in the tournament for 4-seeds (Top 20 AdjEM and Top 20 AdjOff). Tennessee, on the other hand, gives me some pause simply because they have struggled so mightily down the stretch. Indiana boasts the second-worst TO/Reb combo of all time for 4-seeds, and Virginia is below average, to say the least. Even though we feel as if UCONN might be underrated, remember 4-seeds that have the advanced statistics on their side only make the Final 4 at a 13% rate, which is an improvement over the standard 7% rate.

Bottom Line

This was an eye-opening exercise. There is a slew of pretenders and very few contenders. This is arguably one of the weakest top-16 tournament teams of all time. Remember, 1-, 2-, and 3-seeds represent 19 of the last 20 champions. The only exception was the 2014 UCONN team which was a 7-seed.

I'm predicting a wild outcome that could rival the 2006 and 2011 tournaments where zero 1-seeds made the Final 4. As always, thank you for reading, and if you have any questions about the data or process, you can reach me at @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Tune in for our next article on Cinderellas, possible Final Four teams, and National Championship value picks.

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