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Kent Weyrauch’s 2023 NFL Draft Prop Bet Card

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The NFL Draft is fun, but there is something more fun: Winning money on the NFL Draft. Below is my regularly-updated sheet of prop bets for this year’s NFL Draft.

Here are my mock drafts thus far and FantasyPros 2023 NFL Draft Guide:

Check out Matthew Freedman’s 2023 NFL Draft Prop Bet Card >>

Best 2023 NFL Draft Prop Bets

I’m no Matthew Freedman in regards to NFL Draft Mock Accuracy or Prop Betting, but few are. However, I have been a top-30 most accurate NFL Mock Drafter each of the last two years among industry titans - something I am proud of.

Below are the bets I will place on the road to the draft. The reason to begin betting now is due to the shifting odds thanks to things like NFL Free Agency, the NFL Combine, and player trades. Creating your own betting windows to lock in profits. Now let’s get started.

All odds are from the following sportsbooks.

2023 NFL Draft Props

Jordan Addison: First WR Selected

  • Line: +275
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: 2/21
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: There is a lot of uncertainty in this wide receiver draft class. To me, this means that you should avoid the “favorite” in Quentin Johnston and seek value. I believe Jordan Addison represents that value at nearly 3:1 return. If Addison shows up to the combine next week weighing anything north of 180 pounds, these odds will move down considerably. His production profile is very strong and at 6’0″, his frame should allow for muscle growth. The reason for the bet today is that news dropped that Zay Flowers’ odds dropped down to +750 on FanDuel. This gives us more value in Addison, who had never been higher than +250 since this prop opened.

 

Jalin Hyatt: First WR Selected

  • Line: +650
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: 3/3
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: This is getting ahead of odds dropping after Jalin Hyatt runs his 40-yard dash this weekend at the NFL Combine. Regardless of what draftniks think the 40-yard dash is good for at the NFL level, there is undeniable proof that NFL GMs still clamor for speedy wide receivers. As stated in the Jordan Addison blurb, this class has uncertainty at the wide receiver position, so we’re pouncing on decent odds while they’re still available.

Source: PFF, created by @KevinCole___

Jalen Carter: First DEF Selected

  • Line: +470
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: 3/3
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: This is just a bet on uncertainty. I won’t bring any legal reasoning to the table due to my lack of domain knowledge. However, Jalen Carter has returned to Indianapolis to complete measurements and interviews. Considering the top of the draft is still unsteady due to the rumored Bears trade, these odds should not be passed on.

Will Levis: First Overall

  • Line: +1100
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: 3/3
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: The Anthony Richardson hype train has caused Will Levis’s odds to drop back to tolerable betting territory. I still think Levis possesses much more viable passing traits than Richardson and could be a target for teams trading up to grab a quarterback. With Bryce Young’s height/weight in question, now is a great time to gain exposure before Levis throws the ball at the combine.

Bryce Young: First Overall

  • Line: +350
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: 3/10
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: After the Panthers trade up to 1st overall, the books leaned into C.J. Stroud as the favorite. I still see Bryce Young as the premier quarterback of this class and don’t think that he has any strict rules on quarterback height. Earlier this year he interviewed for the Cardinals’ head coaching position with Kyler Murray under contract for a few more years.

C.J. Stroud: First Overall

  • Line: +220
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings/FanDuel
  • Date: 4/11
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: The front-runner for the 2023 NFL Draft has now swapped to Bryce Young, and we can lock in our (basically) first risk-free bet of the cycle. As it stands, it does not seem likely that Anthony Richardson is in play with the first overall selection.

Anthony Richardson: U4.5

  • Line: +170
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings=
  • Date: 4/17
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: I was a bit surprised to see plus odds here. The Colts have the second-lowest odds to be the team to draft Anthony Richardson, and given the Arizona Cardinal’s potential to trade out of the third slot, I’d say this line should be much closer to a 50% proposition.

8th Overall: Lukas Van Ness

  • Line: +600
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: 4/20
  • Units: 0.5
  • Notes: ESPN released their analytical model for predicting the draft, and originally had Van Ness as a >50% chance of being gone by 10th overall. The Falcons are certainly looking at EDGE in this draft, and Van Ness’s combo of traits and versatility might get his name called early in this draft. This bet is currently +350 on DK, so you’re at least getting some value here.

Anthony Richardson – U4.5

  • Line: +260
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: 4/20
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: It just seems far more likely to me that teams look at both Anthony Richardson and Will Levis and realize that Levis’ marginal advantage in year one doesn’t beat out Richardson’s athletic ceiling. Considering all the trade discussions around both the Texans at 2 and the Cardinals at 3, it feels very possible for someone to move up to get him or at least leave him to the Colts at 4.

Will Levis – O6.5

  • Line: +185
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: 4/20
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: This bet is in conjunction with Anthony Richardson U4.5, as it seems the likelihood that four quarterbacks getting drafted in the top six picks is unlikely. The connection of Will Levis to the Tennessee Titans has picked up lately, and if Richardson goes to the Colts then a small Levis fall is very possible.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba – U13.5

  • Line: +185
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: 4/20
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: The Texans at 12 feels like the floor for Jaxon Smith-Njigba to me. They will want to bring in pass-catching talent on day one to assist their shiny new rookie quarterback. If another team wants JSN they will need to trade up for him, almost certainly.

Zay Flowers – U22.5

  • Line: -200
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: 4/20
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: With three teams ahead of this line eagerly looking for a wide receiver and Zay Flowers getting 2nd wide receiver off the board steam lately, this feels like a safe bet to lock in a bankroll supporting half-unit. His workout video with Pat Mahomes sparked a boost in interest this week for sure (maybe they trade up?).

2nd Overall – C.J. Stroud

  • Line: +340
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: 4/21
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: The hating on C.J. Stroud in the last week is too fishy. The S2 results leaked (from an NFL exec, mind you) don’t mesh with what the co-founder discussed on PFF’s podcast not long ago. I’m calling silly season.

1st DEF – Will Anderson Jr. FanDuel AND 1st Non-QB – Tyree Wilson DraftKings

  • Line: +125 (Anderson) and +120 (Wilson)
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel/DraftKings
  • Date: 4/22
  • Units: 1 each
  • Notes: This is a live risk-mitigated bet opportunity where the only realistic risk is Jalen Carter, in my opinion. I highly doubt the Texans would get mixed up with Carter considering his recent issues and the organization’s own problems.

Eagles First Pos – Defensive Lineman/EDGE

  • Line: +230
  • Sportsbook:DraftKings
  • Date: 4/25
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Seems like the Eagles have two players in their sights - Jalen Carter via trade-up or Lukas Van Ness. They are currently favored to take a lineman first, but with some recent steam that Paris Johnson Jr. might be taken earlier than projected by draft analysts, the Eagles’ path to drafting an offensive lineman gets a lot murkier. +230 are great odds to find here the week of the draft.

3rd Overall – Anthony Richardson

  • Line: +1000/+1700
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings/FoxBet
  • Date: 4/27
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Lots of heat coming out about the Titans having their eyes on a quarterback that they want to trade up for. The Cardinals are the ideal trade-down candidate at this point. Couple that with this tweet from a notable player agent and this bet has some serious steam to it.

Tyree Wilson – U4.5

  • Line: +160
  • Sportsbook: DraftKings
  • Date: 4/27
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: If a trade up cannot be consummated, then this is a slam dunk. Either the Texans or the Cardinals could be very much in on Tyree and I don’t think Paris Johnson Jr. going to the Cardinals is as likely as the reports have made it seem.

Jets First Position – Offensive Lineman

  • Line: -250
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: 4/27
  • Units: 2
  • Notes: After trading for Aaron Rodgers, the Jets slide back two spots in the first round. This puts them in range of more offensive linemen and it seems likely that they would want to prioritize keeping Rodgers on his feet in the pocket.

3rd Overall – Paris Johnson Jr.

  • Line: +550
  • Sportsbook: FanDuel
  • Date: 4/27
  • Units: 1
  • Notes: Late surge for Stroud means that again, if the Cardinals can’t trade, then Paris Johnson Jr. is very much in play at 3. The +550 odds here offset some of the risk on the Tyree Wilson U4.5 bet.

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