2023 NFL Draft Prop Betting Odds Review
As we let the Super Bowl fade into the rear-view mirror and begin the steady march towards the NFL Draft in April, it’s important to remind ourselves of prior-year results.
Doing this will support our ongoing analysis of the 2024 NFL Draft and humble ourselves from mistakes or oversights. It is also paramount to not fall victim to “betting favorites bias†as it can be difficult to call the major books on their confidence regarding the lines offered.
This “NFL Draft Prop Betting Review†will not highlight every bet from the first round, as the NFL Draft becomes very chaotic very quickly.
That being said, let’s jump in!
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- Expert Consensus 2024 NFL Mock Draft
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2023 NFL Draft Prop Betting Odds Review
Top 10 Picks in the NFL Draft
To begin, we will examine the cumulative odds-derived expected likelihood of the top 10 betting favorites for each of the first 10 picks in the draft. One major note here is that the vig is not removed. This is to highlight the fact that books have most (if not all) of these bets juiced to the side of higher probability - leaving lower payouts for the bettor.
The green dots show the player who was drafted at each respective position with their betting odds rank as of April 25. The Cumulative xLikelihood represents the combined chance that the book “believes†they know the selection as you navigate down the player betting odds rank.
For example, the books expressed a 99.5% confidence that Will Levis, C.J. Stroud or Anthony Richardson would be selected as the fourth overall pick in the draft.
A few takeaways here:
- In the top-10 draft picks, just two of the books’ top-ranked players in terms of odds were selected at that pick. That includes Bryce Young going first overall with an odds-derived 95.2% confidence.
- Four of the top-10 draft picks were the second-ranked players for that draft position.
- Five draft picks fell outside the “expected†confidence regarding vig-included book odds.
In regards to the third point, something else interesting happened. When all 10 of these wagers were first made available, the books were more correct in their confidence when compared to near draft day. The combined decimal odds for these 10 players on April 14 was 77.8 compared to 93.0 on April 25.
Silly season, anyone? Even the books are prone to it. We all remember the Will Levis Reddit story…
And the extremely ridiculous S2 Cognition storyline…
So yeah, even the books rush to flip NFL Draft odds at a whim. Take advantage of that in conjunction with your convictions.
Time-Based Arbitrage
Below are the same top-10 NFL Draft positional odds on ultimately winning wagers represented over time.
Note that the first five picks opened at (or very near) their highest confidence but dipped considerably as we advanced through the NFL Draft cycle. In the end, Bryce Young going first overall became a given, but smoke on players like Stroud, Will Anderson Jr. and Richardson was ultimately a foretelling as well.
Another way to frame that information is to examine the highest confidence incorrect selection. For example, the odds on C.J. Stroud going first overall.
The same dip in correct picks can be seen in the inverse here, as books leaned too hard into NFL Draft buzz following the Combine. Late steam on three of the first 10 picks of the draft dissipated into vapor on NFL Draft night.
Player Draft Position Lines
The graph below represents winning bets on player draft position lines. Overall, lines remain quite stable throughout April, so don’t bank on a line moving outside of dynamic news hitting the market.
Just one of these lines “flipped polarity†during this span. It also happened to be the final adjustment to his line.
If you have a draft position opinion during this upcoming cycle, you should probably stick to that bet and average up your betting odds depending on your conviction.
| Bet Name | Under | Over |
| Line – Anthony Richardson | 25 | 0 |
| Line – Broderick Jones | 1 | 25 |
| Line – Christian Gonzalez | 0 | 21 |
| Line – Devon Witherspoon | 16 | 0 |
| Line – Jalen Carter | 0 | 27 |
| Line – Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 0 | 20 |
| Line – Joey Porter Jr. | 0 | 20 |
| Line – Paris Johnson Jr. | 20 | 0 |
| Line – Will Anderson | 27 | 0 |
| Line – Will Levis | 0 | 13 |
| Line – Zay Flowers | 27 | 0 |
It is worth noting here that 62% of winning draft position bets were minus bets. Additionally, there was also a marginal edge to overs due to the asymmetric nature of any given player’s draft position. In my opinion, you should utilize minus-odds player draft position bets to cushion your riskier bets.
This is the percent of all possible bet opportunities over time.
| Minus | Plus | Total | |
| Over | 32% | 20% | 52% |
| Under | 30% | 18% | 48% |
| Total | 62% | 39% |
Summary
That’s it! There are more “in the weeds†bets that could be analyzed, but due to the player specificity of most bets, I thought it was important to stick to the basics.
The NFL Draft is one of the most chaotic sporting-adjacent events there is, so betting on it can be lucrative with a steady hand and powerful conviction. Last year, my NFL Draft Prop Bet Card netted me 22.4% ROI. Look forward to the 2024 edition of my NFL Draft Prop Betting Card soon. Thanks for reading!
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday: