2023 NFL Futures Bets: Best Odds & Picks for Every AFC Team

by Kelly Kirby |
Jul 12, 2023

As the 2023 NFL season approaches, the anticipation and excitement among football fans continue to build. With every new season comes the opportunity to place bets and predict the outcomes of our favorite teamsâ€™ performances. To help guide you through the plethora of options, we have assembled a team of expert analysts to provide their best bets for each AFC team.

Weâ€™ll be featuring the insights and expertise of Andrew Erickson, Pat Fitzmaurice, Derek Brown, and Sam Hoppen, four seasoned analysts who have spent countless hours studying team dynamics, player performances, and market trends to identify the best betting opportunities for the upcoming season.

From perennial powerhouses to rising contenders, the AFC boasts a wide array of teams, each with its own unique strengths and challenges. Our panel of experts will offer their predictions and delve into the reasoning behind their chosen wagers, providing you with a thorough analysis of the AFC landscape.

2023 NFL Futures: Best Bets for Every AFC Team

Hereâ€™s a look at each of our featured analystâ€™s predictions and best bets for each of the 16 AFC teams.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

Bet: Damien Harris most rushing touchdowns in the regular season (+10000)

Last season, Jamaal Williamsâ€™ odds to finish with the most rushing TDs were listed at plus 10000. Rinse and repeat, folks. In 2021, Damien Harris finished tied for second in the NFL in rushing TDs (15). 18 of his 20 career TDs have come from inside the 20-yard line. If Harris can emerge as the primary goal-line rusher in Buffalo, he is going to score A LOT of TDs in 2023.
-Andrew Erickson

Miami Dolphins

Bet: Tyreek Hill to finish with the most regular season receiving yards (+900)

This one is simple. If Tua Tagovailoa plays the entire season, Tyreek Hill makes good on this bet. Last year with Tagovailoa under center, Hill averaged 108.3 receiving yards per game, which would have crushed Justin Jefferson (106.4) with the highest mark in the NFL. I get that youâ€™re reading this and skeptical because of Tagovailoa, but heâ€™s the only reason that Hillâ€™s odds are not closer to Jeffersonâ€™s (+550) or Jaâ€™Marr Chaseâ€™s (+600). Hill still has the juice and talent to take home the crown.
-Derek Brown

New England Patriots

Bet: Mac Jones OVER 18.5 passing touchdowns (-115)

Mac Jones averaged just 1 passing TD/game last season in 14 games played. With the addition of Bill O'Brien and some newer personnel, he only needs to improve his TD rate slightly to FLY over 18.5 passing TDs. He threw 22 as a rookie. This TD prop is also set at 17.5 on UnderDog Fantasy.
-Andrew Erickson

New York Jets

Bet: Aaron Rodgers UNDER 3,950.5 passing yards (-110)

This has traditionally been an easy bar for Rodgers to clear, but he threw for only 3,695 yards in 17 games last year, and this season doesnâ€™t set up well for a big yardage total. The Jets have one of the NFLâ€™s better defenses, so they probably wonâ€™t be involved in a lot of high-scoring shootouts. The Jets' new offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett, was the Packers' OC for three seasons, from 2019 to 2021. During those three years, the Packers ranked 28th, 32nd and 32nd in offensive pace. Rodgers could have a strong season and still finish short of this total, and if he were to miss any time due to injury, heâ€™d almost assuredly finish below it.
-Pat Fitzmaurice

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

Bet: Lamar Jackson to win MVP (+1600)

MVP comes down to two simple principles-the best quarterback on the team with the best record. Currently, the teams with betting win totals above 10 include the Bengals (11.5), Eagles (11.5), Chiefs (11.5), Bills (10.5), and 49ers (10.5). The Ravens and Jaguars have 10.5 listed on some sportsbooks, and it's the latter two that have my most interest from a betting perspective. Lamar Jackson should experience a renaissance surrounded by his best offensive personnel to date in 2023. Not a mistake that he has the shortest odds of winning offensive player of the year among quarterbacks. Factor in Jackson's 74% win rate as a starting QB (12.5 wins in a 17-game season), and he's the best bang for your buck in the MVP odds space. Note that our panel of experts all took the "over" on Ravens' 9.5-win total in our NFL Season Win Totals piece.
-Andrew Erickson

Cincinnati Bengals

Bet: Jaâ€™Marr Chase to win AP NFL 2023-2024 Offensive Player of the Year (+1200)

Don't think you need to overthink this one, folks. In three of the last four seasons, the winner of AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year has been a WR that led the NFL in receiving yards. The only exception was during Derrick Henry's 2,000-yard campaign. Ja'Marr Chase owns the second-shortest odds to lead the NFL in receiving yards in 2023 (+750). But the better bet is to go for a bigger payout at +1200. Joe Burrow is my favorite to lead the NFL in passing yards (+650), which lends itself to Chase having an absolute monster 2023 campaign.
-Andrew Erickson

Cleveland Browns

Bet: Nick Chubb to lead the NFL in rushing yards (+750)

Nick Chubb. Always a bridesmaid, never a bride. Over the last four seasons, Chubb has finished either second or third in rushing yards per game (including two second-overall finishes and 1,500 yards last year). The time is now. With Kareem Hunt gone, Chubb takes down the rushing crown.
-Andrew Erickson

Pittsburgh Steelers

Bet: Steelers to win AFC North (+470)

The Steelers have the longest odds of winning the division, and they present excellent value at a generous price. Mike Tomlin has a regular-season winning percentage of .636 in his 16 years as the Steelers head coach and has never finished below .500. Pittsburgh went 7-2 after their bye week last season and ranked sixth in DVOA over that span. The Steelers should have a stout defense, and theyâ€™ve upgraded their offensive line. Yes, Kenny Pickett is probably the worst starting QB in the division, but if heâ€™s merely decent this season, the Steelers should contend for the division crown.
-Pat Fitzmaurice

AFC South

Houston Texans

Bet: Will Anderson OVER 8.25 sacks (+100)

Anderson is an extraordinary prospect who racked up 27.5 sacks in his final two college seasons at Alabama. From 2016 to 2022, there were 10 edge rushers taken with top-five draft picks. Four of them (Aidan Hutchinson, Bradley Chub and the Bosa brothers, Joey and Nick) cleared this number, and two others (Chase Young and Myles Garrett narrowly missed. I like getting even money on an uber-talented edge rusher to hit a very reachable sack total.
-Pat Fitzmaurice

Indianapolis Colts

Bet: Anthony Richardson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+900)

Colts rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson is the best bet to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at +900 odds. Richardson brings an exceptional level of athleticism to the table, and with the right coaching staff, his sky-high potential can be fully realized. In fact, it wouldn't be surprising to see him secure the Day 1 starting position, especially with Gardner Minshew as his only competition. Even if the Colts don't have a strong W-L record, Richardson's flashes of play compared to his rookie counterparts will put him over the top. Among all the rookie quarterbacks, Richardson has the most favorable landing spot in Indianapolis. The last two QB ROY winners - Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray - combined for an 11-19-1 record (55%). Murray averaged just 232 passing yards per game but averaged 34 yards per game on the ground. Murray also beat out a 1st-round rookie, 1,000-yard rusher in Josh Jacobs, and 1,000-yard receiver A.J. Brown en route to the 2019 OROY award with 53% of the votes. Considering these factors, A-Rich stands out as my favorite longer-shot bet to win Offensive Rookie of the Year in a quarterback-driven betting market.
-Andrew Erickson

Jacksonville Jaguars

Bet: Jacksonville to be the No. 1 Seed in the AFC (+1000)

The Jacksonville Jaguars are one of the hottest commodities right now, and one way to take advantage of this without having to worry about the variance of the playoffs is to bet on them to be the #1 seed in the AFC. Using win totals as a strength of schedule measure, the Jaguars have the 5th-easiest projected schedule (it really helps to be in the AFC South).

Additionally, outside of a rest disadvantage against the Chiefs (with whom this could most likely come down), the Jaguars have favorable matchups from a travel and rest perspective almost all season. Outside of losing Arden Key to Tennessee and adding Calvin Ridley, the Jaguars will be returning largely the same roster. For the reigning AFC South champions, continuity and continued development will be key as they push for the #1 seed in the AFC this year!
-Sam Hoppen

Tennessee Titans

Bet: Derrick Henry OVER 1,150.5 rushing yards (-110)

The only way Derrick Henry doesnâ€™t fly past this modest number is injury. Since 2019, Henry hasnâ€™t finished with less than 1,538 rushing yards in any season that he has played at least 15 games. While Tennessee might not be a sexy offense to target this year, Henry is a staple worth betting on. He will remain the focal point of their attack.
-Derek Brown

AFC West

Denver Broncos

Bet: Courtland Sutton OVER 650.5 receiving yards (-110)

Inside of broken offenses over the last two seasons, Courtland Sutton has averaged 802.5 receiving yards. With Sean Payton in Denver, that number will rise. Sutton has yet to show any falloff from a talent standpoint, as he was 12th in open score (per ESPN) last year, immediately ahead of Garrett Wilson. Sutton should have no problems eclipsing this number just based on volume alone.
-Derek Brown

Kansas City Chiefs

Bet: Chiefs to win AFC West (-160)

Gotta build the bankroll somehow. For all the fantasy football question marks regarding Chiefs players not-named Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, one aspect is for certain. If Mahomes is healthy, this team is winning this division. Instead of wading into the ambiguous waters of Chiefs player props or team win totals, Iâ€™ll take the â€œsafeâ€ approach and get wild elsewhere. Mahomes is 27-3 versus the AFC West in his NFL career. But if youâ€™d want more stake, betting Mahomes MVP (+700) is the move to make. Heâ€™s the best QB on the planet. And his odds are longer than they were the last time he was coming off an MVP year (+550).
-Andrew Erickson

Las Vegas Raiders

Bet: Raiders UNDER 5.5 wins (+175)

Apologies to Raider Nation, but the Silver and Black could be in for a rocky season. Las Vegas went 6-11 last year and stumbled down the stretch, losing 4 of their last 5. Josh McDaniels, who is now 17-28 as an NFL head coach, seemed to barely be holding off a mutiny. The team has to replace longtime QB Derek Carr, and new QB Jimmy Garoppolo has reportedly been slow to recover from off-season foot surgery. The Raiders ranked 26th in overall DVOA last year, per Footbll Outsiders, and 31st in defensive DVOA. Las Vegas has the fourth-toughest schedule in the league this year, according to Sharp Football Analysis. The Raidersâ€™ win total is set at 7.5, but youâ€™re getting -150 odds to bet the under on DraftKings. I prefer lowering the bar to 5.5 wins and getting +175 on a Raider implosion.
-Pat Fitzmaurice

Los Angeles Chargers

Bet: Quentin Johnson to lead all rookie WRs in receiving yards (+600)

We know the Chargers are putting up a ton of passing yards with Justin Herbert and Kellen Moore at the helm. Itâ€™s now just a matter of where and how the yards will split up. Quentin Johnston looks like he will open the year as the WR3 on LA, but thatâ€™s a role that can be very enticing. The Chargers were the only team to have three different WRs averaging 35-plus routes run per game last season. Johnstonâ€™s explosiveness leans itself into him generating big plays both downfield and after the catch, so he can make up ground even if heâ€™s not the clear No. 1. Also, Mike Williams and Keenan Allen missed time last year, meaning QJ is just one hammy away from being the potential No. 1 target with a gunslinger at quarterback. Iâ€™ll take that at plus money.
-Andrew Erickson

Navigate