2023 NFL Futures Bets: NFL Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) Picks & Predictions

by Pat Fitzmaurice |
May 30, 2023

Let's dive into the NFL futures market again and take a closer look at the Defensive Player of the Year category.

It's pretty clear that DPOY voters value sacks. In three of the last five years, the NFL sack leader was the Defensive Player of the Year - Aaron Donald in 2018, T.J. Watt in 2021 and Nick Bosa in 2022. In four of the last 11 years, a Watt brother has taken home the award - J.J. won it three times from 2012 to 2015, and T.J. won it two seasons ago. The Watt brothers were sack machines during those years.

But that's not to say pass rushers have a monopoly on the DPOY award. CB Stephon Gilmore won it in 2019. CB Charles Woodson won it in 2009. Three safeties won the award over a seven-year stretch from 2004 to 2010 - Ed Reed, Bob Sanders and Troy Polamalu. And some iconic off-ball linebackers have claimed the award since the turn of the century - Ray Lewis, Derrick Brooks, Brian Urlacher and Luke Kuechly.

Hereâ€™s who I'm betting for the DPOY award as we end the spring and head into summer.

Early Best Bets: 2023 Defensive Player of the Year

(All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Micah Parsons (+650)

Parsons is the favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year and for good reason. He's been in the league for two years and has finished second in the DPOY voting both times. Parsons had 13 sacks as a rookie in 2021, then 13.5 sacks last year. PFF graded Parsons as the second-best edge rusher in the league last year behind the Browns' Myles Garrett. The Cowboys are a glamor team, so Parsons is going to be playing in a lot of high-profile games in which his disruptive exploits will be prominently displayed. Eating the chalk and betting Parsons makes a lot of sense.

Ahmad "Sauce' Gardner (+1500)

Please note that he's listed as "Ahmad Gardner" on DraftKings (you'll have to get the Sauce on the side). Only four cornerbacks have won the award in the last 30 years - Rod Woodson, Deion Sanders, Charles Woodson and Stephon Gilmore - but I still think there's a little bit of value on Sauce at 15-1. He was the Defensive Rookie of the Year last season and finished eighth in the DPOY voting. Gardner had a league-high 20 passes defensed and was PFF's top-graded cornerback. The Jets are going to be in the spotlight this year after trading for Aaron Rodgers, which will mean greater attention for Sauce. If the Jets soar with Rodgers and a terrific young defense, Sauce will be in the DPOY conversation. And, hey, he has a cool nickname. The voters are only human - they appreciate a good nickname, too.

Matthew Judon (+5000)

Matthew Judon didn't record double-digit sacks in any of his five seasons with the Ravens, but he has become a fearsome edge rusher for Bill Belichick's Patriots. Judon tied for seventh in the league with 12.5 sacks in 2021. He tied for fourth last season with a career-high 15.5 sacks and finished ninth in the DPOY voting. As noted earlier, DPOY voters love their sacks, and if Judon can once again challenge for the league lead in that category, he could pay off at these somewhat long odds.

Kayvon Thibodeaux (+5500)

I'm not attracted to any of the true long shots in the +10000 to +20000 range, but Kayvon Thibodeaux is appealing as a long-ish shot. His rookie year started slowly, but Thibodeaux started to become a disruptive force for the Giants as the season went on, and it's clear he's going to be a big problem for NFL offensive tackles. Thibodeaux finished with only four sacks in 14 games but was fourth in Defensive Rookie of the Year Voting. New Giants defensive coordinator Don "Wink" Martindale says Thibodeaux has "no ceiling." Expect a generous sack total this year for Thibodeaux, the fifth overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft.

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