2023 NFL Futures Bets: Rookie Player Prop Picks & Awards Predictions
Our team of expert analysts has their fingers on the pulse, forecasting the frontrunners for offensive and defensive rookie of the year, players to rack up the most regular season rookie receiving yards, and a variety of tantalizing over/under prop bets.
This year’s rookie class features a standout crop of prospects that are poised to make an immediate impact in their debut seasons. From high-flying quarterbacks like the Indianapolis Colts’ Anthony Richardson to dynamic running backs such as the Detroit Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs and exciting wide receivers like the Los Angeles Chargers’ Quentin Johnston, this season promises to be a thrilling one for football fans and bettors alike.
Best 2023 NFL Rookie Futures Bets
Here are the 2023 NFL rookie futures bets our featured analysts are making for offensive rookie of the year, defensive rookie of the year, most regular season rookie receiving yards, and several over/under prop bets.
Offensive Rookie of the Year Best Bets
| ANALYST | PLAYER | ODDS | Sportsbook |
| Erickson | Anthony Richardson | 700 | FD |
| Fitz | Jahmyr Gibbs | 900 | DK |
| DBro | Quentin Johnston | 2000 | DK |
| Joe | Bijan Robinson | 300 | FD |
Anthony Richardson (QB – IND): +700
Colts rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson is the best bet to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at +700 odds. Richardson brings an exceptional level of athleticism to the table, and with the right coaching staff, his sky-high potential can be fully realized. In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him secure the Day 1 starting position, especially with Gardner Minshew as his only competition. Even if the Colts don’t have a strong W-L record, Richardson’s flashes of play compared to his rookie counterparts will put him over the top. Among all the rookie quarterbacks, Richardson has the most favorable landing spot in Indianapolis. The last two QB ROY winners — Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray – combined for a 11-19-1 record (55%). Murray averaged just 232 passing yards per game but averaged 34 yards per game on the ground. Murray also beat out a 1st-round rookie 1,000-yard rusher in Josh Jacobs and 1,000-yard receiver A.J. Brown en route to the 2019 OROY award with 53% of the votes. Considering these factors, he stands out as my favorite longshot bet to win Offensive Rookie of the Year in a quarterback-driven betting market.
– Andrew Erickson
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET): +900
Bijan Robinson is the favorite, but it’s not such a slam dunk that I’m willing to eat the chalk at low odds. I prefer the +900 price on Jahmyr Gibbs, an electric talent who’s ticketed for a substantial role in an up-and-coming Lions offense with a strong O-line and a sharp coordinator in Ben Johnson.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Quentin Johnston (WR – LAC): +2000
With the last two winners of this award coming from the wide receiver position, we could be seeing a changing of the guard after quarterbacks and running backs historically have dominated this award. Johnston is the easy longshot to root for locked inside what will be a top 5-10 pace and scoring offense led by Justin Herbert. If Keenan Allen or Mike Williams misses any time, it’s easy to see this bet paying off. Expect Kellen Moore to prominently feature a receiver that ranked sixth in YAC per reception and 11th in missed tackled forced (per PFF) in his final collegiate season.
– Derek Brown
Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL): +300
Bijan Robinson will be the focal point of the Falcons offense in 2023. Anything comparable to Saquon Barkley’s rookie season (also on a “bad†team) and this is a lock.
– Joe Pisapia
Defensive Rookie of the Year Best Bets
| ANALYST | PLAYER | ODDS | Sportsbook |
| Erickson | Will McDonald IV | 2500 | FD |
| Fitz | Myles Murphy | 2000 | DK |
| DBro | Devon Witherspoon | 900 | DK |
| Joe | Jalen Carter | 700 | FD |
Will McDonald IV (DE – NYJ): +2500
Jets rookie first-round pass rusher Will McDonald IV from Iowa State is an under-the-radar candidate to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at +2500 odds, as per FanDuel Sportsbook. The 15th overall pick possesses exceptional physical traits, including a 90th-percentile arm length and an impressive 98th-percentile broad jump of 132 inches. These attributes have greatly benefited him as a pure and natural edge rusher, leading to recognition as the third-highest-graded pass rusher on true pass sets by PFF in 2022. One standout statistic is McDonald’s impressive 45.8% pass rush win rate on true pass sets, the best in his draft class and second-best in the nation per PFF. Playing for the New York Jets adds to McDonald’s potential for recognition. The team garners substantial media coverage, particularly in the high-profile New York market. With the addition of Aaron Rodgers, all eyes will be on Gang Green throughout the season, increasing the visibility of their defensive rookies. The recent success of fellow Jets CB Sauce Gardner winning the Defensive Rookie of the Year award in 2022 suggests that McDonald could also benefit from heightened attention.
McDonald’s opportunity to accumulate sacks is boosted by an improved Rodgers-led Jets team potentially playing with more leads. Additionally, the presence of interior disruptor Quinnen Williams on the defensive line will draw double teams, creating favorable one-on-one pass-rush matchups for McDonald, particularly when lining up outside the tight end. Although he may not have been fully utilized in this role during his college career, McDonald still holds an impressive record of 35 sacks, surpassing Von Miller’s mark as the most in the Big 12 since 2005. His career sack rate of 4% also outshines that of Alabama’s and DROY betting favorite, Will Anderson Jr. Considering all these factors, McDonald’s combination of physical prowess, opportunity, and potential for increased attention makes him an enticing longshot bet at 25-1 odds to win DROY.
– Andrew Erickson
Myles Murphy (DE – CIN): +200
History tells us that sack artists have the inside track for this award, so edge rushers provide the best value. BettingPros college football and NFL Draft analyst Thor Nystrom ranks Myles Murphy as the fourth-best edge rusher in this year’s rookie class and compares him to Rashaan Gary. The potent Bengals offense will force opponents to throw to keep up, giving Murphy ample opportunities to collect sacks.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Devon Witherspoon (CB – SEA): +900
While sack artists have crushed this award, the coverage dynamos are making a run at this trophy with increasing regularity. Over the last eight years, corners have collected the hardware three times. If I make the bet that a corner blows it out this season, I’m pushing my chips to the middle with Devon Witherspoon. Last year he dominated, ranking first in coverage grade, third in pass breakups, and logged the third-lowest passer rating allowed in coverage (minimum 150 coverage snaps per PFF). The Seahawks have a roster that can push 12 wins this season. If that’s the case, Witherspoon is a big part of it, forming a lockdown duo with Tariq Woolen.
– Derek Brown
Jalen Carter (DT – PHI): +700
The Eagles are going to be the highest-profile team in the NFC, and that means lots of national games for Philly for Jalen Carter to make a big impression. Playing time is assumed, and the talent is there for a big debut impact.
– Joe Pisapia
Check Out Our 2023 U.S. Open Betting Guide: Odds, Picks & Predictions >>
Most Regular Season Rookie Receiving Yards
| ANALYST | PLAYER | ODDS | Sportsbook |
| Erickson | Jonathan Mingo | 1200 | FD |
| Fitz | Kayshon Boutte | 7000 | FD |
| DBro | Jordan Addison | 250 | FD |
| Joe | Quentin Johnston | 550 | FD |
Jonathan Mingo (WR – CAR): +1200
Jonathan Mingo, the Carolina Panthers’ second-round pick from Ole Miss, is a compelling choice to lead all rookies in receiving yards in 2023, offering enticing +1200 odds, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. Mingo possesses an impressive size/speed combination, standing at 6-foot-2, 220 pounds, and boasting 4.46 speed. This physical profile, coupled with his ability to adjust to balls downfield and break tackles, makes him an appealing option for big receiving totals. Mingo’s downfield prowess should mesh well with his rookie quarterback, Bryce Young. In 2022, a notable 31% of his targets came on throws of 20-plus yards downfield, trailing only Marvin Mims in the class (38%). Remarkably, Mingo earned a superb 99.9 PFF grade when targeted downfield, equivalent to his draft classmates Jalin Hyatt and Jordan Addison.
Furthermore, he excelled in generating yardage after the catch, ranking 10th in the FBS among wide receivers with at least 80 targets in yards after the catch per reception (7.5). Although Mingo had a breakout season at Ole Miss, amassing 51 catches for 861 receiving yards and five touchdowns, his trajectory was impacted by an injury in 2021. Nonetheless, he showcased his potential by averaging over 100 receiving yards per game in the first three games of the season before being sidelined. The Panthers’ receiving corps features two veterans in Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark Jr., but Mingo has a strong chance to emerge as the team’s primary wide receiver in his rookie year. With his draft capital, immediate opportunity for playing time, and ability to generate significant yardage both after the catch and downfield, Mingo presents a savvy bet to lead all rookies in receiving yards. It’s worth noting that Panthers General Manager Scott Fitterer previously drafted a wide receiver from Ole Miss in the second round, DK Metcalf, back in 2019. In his first year, Metcalf finished third among rookies in receiving yards, while leading in targets and routes run. This precedent adds further credibility to Mingo’s potential impact. I’d also like to add that the longshot odds of Mims at +4000 are worth throwing a couple bucks on. He is a big-play play threat and enters the NFL with a decorated college production profile. Sean Payton didn’t select him with as his first draft pick since taking over as the Broncos head coach to have him ride the pine.
– Andrew Erickson
Kayshon Boutte (WR – NE): +7000
This is a home run swing with a long shot. Boutte isn’t even a lock to make the Patriots’ final roster, but Boutte finished his rookie season at LSU with big games against Alabama, Florida and Ole Miss as an 18-year-old freshman, then averaged 84.8 yards and 1.5 TDs a game as a sophomore before breaking his ankle six games in — an injury that may have affected him in his final college season and tanked his draft stock. Target competition in new England isn’t fierce. These are juicy odds on a talented player.
Jordan Addison (WR – MIN): +250
Jordan Addison’s path to assuming the silver medal spot in this target-earning tree is clear, with only T.J. Hockenson to hop in the process. Last year a washed version of Adam Thielen earned a 17.0% target share (107 targets). He did this while ranking outside the top 55 wide receivers in yards per route run and route win rate (per Playerprofiler.com). Addison can dwarf those numbers. The passing volume will be present as Minnesota was third in neutral passing rate and second in red zone passing rate last season.
Quentin Johnston (WR – LAC): +550
Quentin Johnston will be called upon when the inevitable Mike Williams injury occurs. Factor in the age of Keenan Allen and the Chargers’ desire to throw the football, and I think Johnston eventually outpaces the field here.
Rookie Player Props: Over/Under
| Rookie Player Prop | Over / Under | Andrew | Derek | Pat | Joe | Consensus |
| QB CJ Stroud passing TDs | 22.5 | Under | Under | Under | Under | Under |
| QB Bryce Young passing yards | 3750.5 | Under | Under | Under | Under | Under |
| RB Bijan Robinson rushing yards | 1100.5 | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over |
| RB Bijan Robinson rushing TDs | 8.5 | Over | Over | Over | Over | Over |
| EDGE Will Anderson sacks | 6.25 | Over | Over | Over | Under | Over |
| EDGE Tyree Wilson sacks | 8.25 | Under | Under | Under | Under | Under |
C.J. Stroud (QB – HOU): UNDER 22.5 Passing TDs
I love C.J. Stroud, but an over bet would be some spicy sauce to sling here. I expect this offense to be run-heavy, with the 49ers’ blueprint permeating this coaching staff. A receiver room filled with Nico Collins, John Metchie, Robert Woods, and company doesn’t sway me in that belief. Stroud can walk away from his rookie season with a solid stat line but don’t expect his touchdown numbers to wow anyone. – DBro
Bryce Young (QB – CAR): UNDER 3,750/5 Passing Yards
Only 6 rookie QBs in the Super Bowl era have surpassed 3,750 passing yards in their rookie seasons. Carson Wentz was able to squeak by the mark in his rookie season under Frank Reich’s coaching in 2016, but it came in an offense that ranked 24th in passing yards (despite 6th in attempts). And after Reich lost Andrew Luck at the conclusion of 2018, the new Panthers head coach has yet to orchestrate an offense to finish above average in total passing attempts (2019-2021). – Erickson
Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL): OVER 1,100.5 Rushing Yards
Bijan Robinson is the best RB prospect to come into the league since Saquon Barkley in 2018, and he’s joining a Falcons team that ran the ball at the second-highest rate in the league last season. If he stays reasonably healthy, he’s clearing 1,100 rushing yards. – Pat Fitzmaurice
Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL): OVER 8.5 Rushing TDs
Let’s keep this simple. An electric running back prospect with first-round draft capital just landed on a team that led the NFL in red zone rushing rate last year. Yes, I’m betting the overs on nearly every Bijan Robinson rushing touchdown prop I can find. – Dbro
Will Anderson (EDGE – HOU): OVER 6.25 Sacks
It can be tough for a player to generate massive sack totals if his team is trailing in games. Case in point, the Texans’ lead pass rusher last season Jerry Hughes, ranked 40th in pass rush snaps (381). But he still totaled nine sacks. So even though it seems like Anderson could struggle to hit a high sack total, a rookie-year 2% sack rate (below his 3% college sack rate) would net him 7-plus sacks on 400 pass-rush snaps. Seems feasible, even if it takes a few double-digit sack games versus some of the weaker teams in the AFC South. – Erickson
Tyree Wilson (EDGE – LV): UNDER 8.25 Sacks
Wilson has immense potential as an NFL edge rusher, but he’s far from a finished product. This is a high bar to clear, and Wilson never had more than seven sacks in any of his four seasons at Texas Tech. – Pat Fitzmaurice
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