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2023 NFL Week 1 Early Lines Odds, Picks & Predictions

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As the teams gear up for their Week 1 matchups, our analysts have scoured the early lines and put together their top picks for your NFL futures bets. We’ve assembled a talented team of experts, including Pat Fitzmaurice, Andrew Erickson, Derek Brown, Sam Hoppen, and Ryan Wormeli, each sharing their best bets for moneylines, against the spread, total points, and even a bonus bet, parlay, or teaser.

The experts are here to guide you through the early lines and offer expert analysis to help you make informed decisions when placing your NFL futures bets.

NFL Week 1 Early Lines & Best Bets

NFL Week 1 Moneyline Best Bets

Moneyline Odds (DraftKings) Analyst
Steelers +130  Pat
Panthers +130  DBro
Steelers +130 Erickson
Jaguars -165 Sam
Dolphins +120 Worm
Steelers +130 Joe

Steelers (+130)

We’re getting a West Coast team, the 49ers, traveling to the Eastern Time Zone for an early game against the undervalued Steelers. Pittsburgh closed the 2022 season on a 7-2 run and ranked sixth in DVOA over that span, according to Football Outsiders. The Niners are tough, but their QB situation is unsettled, and I like getting plus money on Mike Tomlin’s team against a visitor making a cross-country trip. – Pat Fitzmaurice

Panthers (+130)

Carolina’s defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero will make Desmond Ridder’s life a living hell in Week 1 by dialing up the blitz. If Ridder crumbles, the Panthers should walk away with a win in Week 1. Last year as the Bronco’s defensive coordinator, Evero dialed up a blitz at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. Among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, Ridder ranked 33rd in blitzed passing grade and 38th in blitzed yards per attempt (per PFF). Atlanta should not be the favored team here. – Derek Brown

Steelers (+130)

The 49ers played four road games over their 10-game winning streak to close out the 2022 season. Two games versus the crumbling Rams/Cardinals, one TNF victory over Seattle, and a wild OT finish versus a Jarrett Stidham-led Raiders. Needless to say, they hardly faced a murderer’s row of road teams. They wouldn’t lose a game until the conference championship in Philadelphia. Fast forward to 2023, and the 49ers will open on the road at Pittsburgh. The Steelers were strong after their bye week, finishing 7-2 (7-2 ATS) after a rocky 2-6 start. And both of their losses at home were by one score. Pittsburgh is 3-1-1 in Week 1 over the past five seasons, including two big upsets as touchdown underdogs the last two years versus Buffalo and Cincinnati. I think a fierce Steelers defensive line (5th-ranked DL vs. 18th-ranked OL) at home gets after Brock Purdy (or whoever starts for SF) in his first NFL start since his major elbow injury, and the Steel Curtain pulls off their third straight Week 1 upset. The Steelers are 3-1-1 as home dogs over the past two seasons. – Andrew Erickson

Jaguars (-165)

The Colts, one of the worst teams in the league last year, will enter the season with a new head coach, a new quarterback, and no premier free-agency additions. While these teams split their season series last year, Jacksonville – who ranked 9th in Football Outsider’s DVOA in 2022 – will have what should be one of the most high-powered offenses with Trevor Lawrence in his third season and an addition in Calvin Ridley. I’m bullish on what the Colts can become with Anthony Richardson, but Week 1 will not be when they get their first win. – Sam Hoppen

Dolphins (+120)

I like the Chargers’ talent as much as anybody, but I think the wrong team is favored in this game. Miami’s offense was *elite* when Tua was healthy last year, and he’s healthy going into Week 1. Plus, the defense could be nearly as good as the offense after the improvements they made this offseason. I expect a close game, but the Dolphins should be laying points, not getting them. – Ryan Wormeli

Steelers (+130)

With QB uncertainty for San Francisco looming in Week 1, the Steelers as a home dog are too good to pass up. Mike Tomlin will always have his team prepared, and the lower total favors a Steelers W. – Joe Pisapia

NFL Week 1 Against the Spread Best Bets

Against the Spread Odds Analyst
Broncos -4 -110 DK Pat
Broncos -4 -110 DK DBro
Bills -1 -110 Caesars Erickson
Patriots +4 -105 DK Sam
Ravens -9 -110 DK Worm
Rams +5.5 -110 FD Joe

Broncos -4 (-110)

The Raiders ranked 26th in overall DVOA last year and 31st in defensive DVOA in 2022, and they finished the season on a 1-4 slide. This line seems light for a road game against the Broncos, who’ll be playing their first game under new head coach Sean Payton and will be eager to wash the bad taste of the 2022 season out of their mouths. – Pat Fitzmaurice

Broncos -4 (-110)

Sean Payton should make a statement in Week 1 against the hapless Raiders. Russell Wilson should have no problems carving up a pass defense that ranked 31st in pass defense and 21st in deep passing DVOA last year (per Football Outsiders). The Broncos should run away with this game. – Derek Brown

Bills -1 (-110)

Josh Allen is 3-1 versus Jets head coach Robert Saleh over the past two seasons. The lone loss came back in Week 9 of last year, in a game where the Bills QB suffered an elbow injury. Buffalo was 11-point favorites entering that contest. Obviously, upgrading at quarterback with Aaron Rodgers in New York makes this a much closer contest, but not to the extent where Buffalo should remain just a one or 1.5-point road favorite. Buffalo beat Rodgers 27-17 back in Week 8 of the 2020 season as double-digit favorites. Should also be noted that before dropping that Week 9 contest vs. Gang Green, Buffalo was 3-1 on the road versus the reigning SB champs, Lamar Jackson-led Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs. Their only road loss came in a crazy hot weather game in Miami. – Andrew Erickson

Patriots +4 (-105)

Philadelphia was undoubtedly one of the best offenses in the league last year, but there’s a chance we see a bit of a Super Bowl hangover from them out of the gates. They’ll be facing what projects to be a top-five defense in the Patriots as they return all of their key players while adding Christian Gonzalez to a team that was third in both defensive DVOA (per Football Outsiders) and EPA per play allowed. Having Bill O’Brien back as their offensive coordinator and play caller should add a level of competence to an offense that took a major step back in 2022. – Sam Hoppen

Ravens -9 (-110)

Three things the Ravens have done extremely well in 15 years under John Harbaugh: Dominate at home, beat rookie quarterbacks, and win big in Week 1. They check all three boxes in this matchup as Baltimore plays host to CJ Stroud in his first-ever NFL game. You won’t find a bigger Stroud fan than me, but the new-look Ravens offense will be able to name their score in this one, and the defense is going to give Houston nightmares. Oh, and in four Week 1 games in the Lamar Jackson Era, Baltimore is outscoring opponents 148 to 58. The Ravens laying any single-digit number is an auto-smash for me here. – Ryan Wormeli

Rams +5.5 (-110)

We don’t know how long the Rams’ offense will be healthy for, but as long as Stafford/Kupp/Akers is intact, they should compete with the Seahawks. Seattle’s +5.5 is a lot of points in an early in-division matchup. – Joe Pisapia

NFL Week 1 Total Points Best Bets

Total Points Odds Analyst
Cardinals @ Commanders Under 40.5 (-110) Pat
49ers @ Steelers Under 40.5 (-110) DBro
Cowboys @ Giants Under 47 (-110) Erickson
Bills @ Jets Under 47.5 (-110) Sam
Lions @ Chiefs Under 54.5 (-110) Worm
Cardinals @ Commanders Under 40.5 (-110) Joe

Cardinals @ Commanders UNDER 40.5 (-110)

I think we’ll see this number come down as we get closer to Week 1. The Cardinals will probably have the worst offense in the league early in the season while QB Kyler Murray continues to recover from a torn ACL. It seems unlikely that the Cardinals will light up the scoreboard with either Colt McCoy or Clayton Tune starting at quarterback, and Washington has a very good defensive front seven. The Commanders could have their own offensive struggles, with new QB Sam Howell having made only one NFL start. This game should be a low-scoring rock fight. – Pat Fitzmaurice

49ers @ Steelers UNDER 40.5 (-110)

This game projects to be incredibly slow from a pace perspective. Add in two stout defensive units, and even with a low total here, I’m still taking the under. The Steelers are the key to hitting under-hitting. Last year the 49ers were first in defensive DVOA (per Football Outsiders). In his rookie season, Kenny Pickett and the Steelers averaged a paltry 13.2 points per game against top-ten defensive DVOA teams. That’s a far cry from the Steelers’ 17.25 implied team total. – Derek Brown

Cowboys @ Giants UNDER 47 (-110)

The New York Giants were 11-8 toward the under last season. In their two games versus the Cowboys’ top-ranked defense, they were held to 20 or fewer points. The over hit at 48 points when these teams met on Thanksgiving. Even with Dak Prescott at quarterback, the over only hit because of a last-second and meaningless TD pass from Daniel Jones. I am skeptical that we will see major offensive fireworks on New York’s side of the ball up against one of the NFL’s strongest defenses. On the flip side, Dallas will be less aggressive on offense without Kellen Moore calling plays. With Moore and Prescott at quarterback playing on the road, Dallas was 2-5 in terms of hitting the closing line over (29%). – Andrew Erickson

Bills @ Jets UNDER 47.5 (-110)

In Aaron Rodgers’ debut for the Jets, I’m skeptical they’ll have figured everything out on offense, and I’m guessing a lot of what is driving this total up is some reliance on Rodgers improving their scoring out of the gate. The two matchups between these teams last year featured totals of just 37 and 32 points. Though defense is not particularly stable year-over-year, both of these teams also finished in the top seven in EPA per play allowed in the regular season. I don’t expect the first Monday Night Football game of the season to come with as many fireworks as the market implies there will be. – Sam Hoppen

Lions @ Chiefs UNDER 54.5 (-110)

Nobody likes betting the under, especially in primetime games, especially when Patrick Mahomes is playing, ESPECIALLY in the opening game of the entire NFL season. And yet, 54.5 points is a huge number. Early season unders are historically pretty successful, so taking the highest line of the week and betting the under is probably the smart thing to do. – Ryan Wormeli

Cardinals @ Commanders UNDER 40.5 (-110)

Lesser QB play usually leads to underperforming totals. This game just screams 17-10 to me. – Joe Pisapia

Check out our other NFL Futures Bets from the analysts>>

NFL Week 1 Bonus Bets

Bonus Picks Odds Analyst
Lions/Chiefs alternate spread Lions +3.5 (+139) Pat
Eagles/Patriots alternate spread Eagles -6.5 (+115) DBro
Chiefs/Lions Under + Lions ATS DET +6.5 + KC-DET under 54.5 (+250) Erickson
Steelers/Vikings 6-point teaser MIN -0.5, PIT +8.5 (-134) Sam
49ers Team Total Points Under 20.5 (+105) Worm
Commanders by 1-13 Pts (+140) Joe

Lions/Chiefs Alternate Spread: Lions +3.5 (+139)

The Chiefs are a terrific team but often have trouble covering big numbers. The Line on this game is currently Chiefs -6.5, but I like the idea of moving the number down to 3.5, keeping it above the key number of 3, and getting the Lions at +139. Expect Lions head coach Dan Campbell to fire up his team to prove that they belong on the big stage for the league’s primetime season opener. – Pat Fitzmaurice

Eagles/Patriots Alternate Spread: Eagles -6.5 (+115)

The Patriots will roll out a new offensive scheme this year with Bill O’Brien calling plays. I won’t be shocked if New England experiences some sizable bumps out the gate against one of the league’s best defenses. Philadelphia should open the season with a rout. Jalen Hurts’ MVP candidacy starts in Week 1. – DBro

Chiefs/Lions Under 54.5 and Lions +6.5 (+250)

KC was 2-8 at home toward the over last season. Their offense ranked first in points per game on the road (33.3) but ninth at home (25.1). The Lions were the league’s top offense at home (33.1) but were below average on the road (19.4). Detroit is also 17-7 vs. the spread in games with 54 points or fewer scored since current offensive coordinator Ben Johnson took on a larger role in calling the Detroit offense. I think this game comes under the bloated total and is a closer contest than what Detroit is getting credit for. – Andrew Erickson

Steelers/Vikings 6-point teaser: MIN -0.5 & PIT +8.5 (-134)

This bet is a combination of a team lean and a math-based lean. On the Vikings, though they won a lot of close games last year, they are clearly a much better team than Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay obviously had a huge loss in Tom Brady retiring, but they also didn’t add many major pieces despite largely re-signing many of their key free agents. On the Steelers, the total for the game against the 49ers is currently around 41 points, which is the second-lowest total on the week. So, being able to cross the key numbers of 3 and 7 in a game with such a low is huge. – Sam Hoppen

49ers Team Total Points Under 20.5 (+105)

Erickson snaked me on Steelers ML, so I’ll touch on this game here. I expect Pittsburgh to have one of the five best defenses in football this season, and the 49ers are starting one of these QBs: Brock Purdy off an injury, Trey Lance off an injury, or literally Sam Darnold in this game. Yes, San Francisco has Kyle Shanahan and a host of impressive skill position players, but the Steelers won’t be intimidated by any of that, and I think it will be a struggle for either team to get to three TDs in this one. – Ryan Wormeli

Washington Commanders by 1-13 Pts (+140)

I’m confident the Commanders will win this home opener, and I’m also confident they don’t have an offense in place ready to pull away from a team they should beat by more. – Joe Pisapia


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