2023 NFL Win Total Odds, Picks & Predictions: AFC North

by Andrew Erickson |
Aug 17, 2023

Join us as we dive into the insightful predictions of our very own Andrew Erickson, who has taken an early look at the lines and made his picks based on the latest information about each team. If youâ€™re looking to gain an edge in your betting game and stay ahead of the competition, this article is a must-read.

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2023 AFC North Team Predictions

Baltimore Ravens over 10.5 Wins (+100 DraftKings Sportsbook)

From Week 9 onward (after the Ravens acquired linebacker Roquan Smith), the Ravens were 3rd overall in defensive DVOA (9th in pass, 2nd in run) in 2022. With a healthy Lamar Jackson surrounded by new pass-catching toys in a fast-paced scheme, this team can be a complete unit that can flirt with 11 or 12 wins in 2023. They have the 6th-easiest schedule in terms of rest differential, per Sharp Football, and Jackson is a quarterback that racks up wins when he is healthy. The Ravens QB owns a 74%-win rate as a starting QB (projects to 12.5 wins in a 17-game season). Take the over at even odds.

Cincinnati Bengals under 11.5 Wins (-144 FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Bengalsâ€™ total is tied with the Chiefs and Eagles for the highest among all teams. But they barely hit the mark last season with 12 wins (note they had a game canceled) despite a Pythagorean Expected win total of fewer than 11 wins. With all members of the AFC North boasting much-improved rosters, the under is the play here. Joe Burrowâ€™s preseason calf injury could be nothing, but itâ€™s still possible it resurfaces, placing the Bengals in a precarious position from a win totals perspective.

Cleveland Browns under 9.5 Wins (-135 DraftKings Sportsbook)

What tends to get lost in Deshaun Watsonâ€™s horrible return last year is that he went 3-3 as the teamâ€™s starter, an improvement from Jacoby Brissettâ€™s 4-7 record. However, even if Watson does return to form, double-digit wins are still a tough number to hit in the super competitive AFC North. Five teams accomplished the feat in 2022, and the Browns feel like they are at least a tier away from the top contenders to achieve that status in 2023. Head coach Kevin Stefanski only has one season with double-digit wins on his resume (2020), and Watson boasts a 31-28 overall record as a starter. Thereâ€™s just not enough working in Clevelandâ€™s favor to reach 10 regular season wins. A better approach to taking the over on the Browns would be betting them to make the playoffs at +115 (DK Sportsbook). Five teams made the postseason last year with 9 or fewer wins, and the Browns could certainly join that group this season.

Pittsburgh Steelers over 8.5 Wins (-150 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Mike Tomlin has never finished below .500 and I donâ€™t think that changes with quarterback Kenny Pickett entering his second season. They have by far the easiest schedule in the AFC North and the biggest improvement in SOS difficulty from the year prior (31st to 8th). Pickett showed that he could lead this team to victory versus inferior opponents, stringing together a 7-2 record over his last 9 games, with their only losses coming in one-score games versus the Bengals and Ravens. I donâ€™t even mind alternating this total up to 9.5 wins at +128 (FanDuel Sportsbook) with all the roster improvements Pittsburgh has made through free agency and the 2023 NFL Draft.

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