2023 NFL Win Total Odds, Picks & Predictions: AFC South
Join us as we dive into the insightful predictions of our very own Andrew Erickson, who has taken an early look at the lines and made his picks based on the latest information about each team. So, if you’re looking to gain an edge in your betting game and stay ahead of the competition, this article is a must-read. Get ready to unleash your football prowess and make some savvy bets for a thrilling season ahead!
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2023 AFC South Team Win Totals Over/Under Picks & Predictions
Tennessee Titans over 7.5 wins (-115 Caesars Sportsbook)
If Ryan Tannehill doesn’t get hurt after a 7-3 start, the Titans would have won the division in 2022. Sure, they’ve got a ton of issues across their roster (especially OL), but head coach Mike Vrabel has consistently proven he can get the most out of his squad with Tannehill starting under center. Considering the Titans own the 9th-easiest schedule overall, I think they easily get over the 7.5 wins total. The addition of WR DeAndre Hopkins is a big boost for their offense. Vrabel has led the Titans to 9-plus wins in four of his last five seasons before injuries decimated their roster in 2022. Per Football Outsiders, the Titans finished with the second-most adjusted games lost due to injuries last season.
Indianapolis Colts under 6.5 wins (-118 FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Colts are not a team that looks like they’re in the business of winning games this season. CC the Jonathan Taylor situation. The organization is primarily focused on developing their rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, and that is going to take precedence even at the cost of wins. 1st-round rookie QBs drafted inside the top-10 are 56-108 (34%) since 2017, with only two amassing 7 wins as a starting quarterback (Tua Tagovailoa, Baker Mayfield).
Jacksonville Jaguars under 10.5 wins (-150 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Jaguars started out the 2022 season 4-8 before ripping off a 5-game win streak en route to winning the AFC South. They greatly benefitted from being the healthiest team in the NFL while also playing in the weakest AFC division. Per Football Outsiders, the Jaguars faced the easiest schedule of offensive opponents last season. Still, it’s hard to see them falling too out of favor with the potential that all three of their division rivals will be led by rookie QBs at some point in 2023. My only reservation is that they stayed so healthy last year and still only got to 9 wins. They likely won’t be as lucky when it comes to avoiding the injury bug for a second straight season. With some books alternating this number at 10.5, I’d bet the under for the Jacksonville hype team.
Houston Texans over 6.5 wins (+110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Only the Colts posted fewer expected wins than the Houston Texans (5) did in 2022. Considering Houston has yet to exceed four real wins in any of the last three seasons, it’s hard to be bullish on the over with another new rookie head coach at the helm. But the more that I look at this roster, the more I am optimistic that they can get things going in the right direction. They have the 7th-easiest schedule, a pro-ready rookie quarterback, and a very underrated defense that ranked 14th in DVOA versus the pass last season (4th after Week 5). If the offense takes better care of turnovers – 30th in 2022 – Houston will find itself competing in more games in 2023. The arrival of DeMeco Ryans should shore up the run defense, which has been Houston’s biggest problem for the last several years. All in all, the 2023 Texans remind me a lot of the 2022 New York Jets’ fierce defense…that managed to get to 7 wins with defense despite atrocious quarterback play. I like the odds at plus money. Rookie head coaches went 34-39 last season (46%), which would put the Texans around 7-8 wins in 2023.
VSIN has done extensive research on rookie head coaches, and one particular stat stuck out to me in regard to Houston. Specifically, when a new head coach takes over a team that scored less than 18 PPG the prior season, all 10 teams over the last decade have improved by an average of 4.0 wins the following year. Houston ranked second-to-last in points per game in 2022 (17.0).
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