2023 NFL Win Total Odds, Picks & Predictions: AFC West
Join us as we dive into the insightful predictions of our very own Andrew Erickson, who has taken an early look at the lines and made his picks based on the latest information about each team. So, if you’re looking to gain an edge in your betting game and stay ahead of the competition, this article is a must-read. Get ready to unleash your football prowess and make some savvy bets for a thrilling season ahead!
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2023 NFL Team Win Totals Over/Under Picks & Predictions
AFC West Team Win Totals
Los Angeles Chargers over 9.5 wins (-125 BetMGM)
In 2022, I pushed with the Chargers 10 wins total. Therefore, I am going back to the well here with the over at 9.5 wins. It's a bet on quarterback Justin Herbert bouncing back after his play was negatively impacted by injuries a season ago. The team still made the playoffs (after sitting at 6-6 heading into Week 14) and tallied 10 wins (the most since 2018). But alas, the sour taste that a 27-0 blown wild card loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars has dramatically influenced the Bolts’ betting odds, dipping their win total to 9.5. In 2022, they had the 6th-shortest odds (+1380) to win the Super Bowl. This season, they are 11th (+2800) tied with Jacksonville Jaguars. Kellen Moore stepping in as OC should improve the offensive efficiency. And better injury luck on the defensive side of the ball should help this unit realize its elite potential with personnel such as Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Asante Samuel Jr., Derwin James and J.C. Jackson.
Kansas City Chiefs over 11.5 wins (-134 FanDuel Sportsbook)
They've won 12 or more games in each of the last five seasons. Ergo, betting against Patrick Mahomes and company has not been a profitable formula since he took over in 2018. A better and more fun bet is betting the Chiefs at +135 to win over 4.5 games versus the AFC West (DraftKings Sportsbook). Mahomes is 27-3 versus the AFC West in his NFL career.
Las Vegas Raiders under 4.5 wins (+250 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Alternate this number as low as you can. Most sportsbooks have it at 7 or 6.5. But over the last two seasons (17-game season) we have seen an average of 1.5 teams with five wins, 2.5 teams with four wins and two teams with three wins. The LV Raiders check off enough boxes to be a complete and utter disaster in Josh McDaniels' second season as head coach. Jimmy Garoppolo steps in at quarterback with major injury risks attached. The offensive line overachieved expectations last year with middling personnel. And the defensive secondary is filled with question marks that likely won't be solved by signing veteran CB Marcus Peters. Not to mention, they have the second-most difficult schedule based on Vegas' forecasted win totals. Considering how strong the AFC West is compared to the bottom-dwellers in other divisions (Commanders, Buccaneers, Colts, etc.), a Kyler Murray-less Arizona Cardinals tea, might be the only team that loses more games than LV in 2023.
Denver Broncos under 8.5 wins (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The 8.5 number is spot on, so it's probably a number I wouldn't touch in most cases. The BettingPros staff was split on the Denver Broncos when we wrote up win totals back in May. I was on the "over" at that time, but I've been hesitant about backing it up here in August. The number is just banking on Sean Payton completely fixing Russell Wilson. Along with the Denver defense duplicating it’s 2022 efforts despite a change at defensive coordinator (Vance Joseph). But we know defenses carrying over elite performances can be tough to replicate. And Wilson might not just be the same quarterback he once was, carrying a combined 10-19 record over the last two seasons. His .345% winning percentage ranks 39th among 43 qualifying quarterbacks since the start of 2021. The only QBs that have lost more games over that span are Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence. Fields, Davis Mills and Baker Mayfield are the only QBs with a worse winning percentage. With Denver facing the 10th toughest schedule overall - more difficult than their 10th-ranked easiest schedule last season - I am going under 8.5 if forced to make a bet. The team just lost starting WR Tim Patrick to a torn Achilles. It's been since 2016 that the Broncos last won more than 8 games. Ultimately, the Broncos will probably settle for around 8-9 wins, with such a sharp number posted by the sportsbooks. But as I look at their opening schedule - home versus the Raiders and the Commanders - the move might be betting the over early and see how if high you can cash out the ticket with everybody convinced the Broncos are back in action after two home games versus dumpster fire franchises.
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