2023 NFL Win Total Odds, Picks & Predictions: NFC South

by Andrew Erickson |
Aug 24, 2023

Join us as we dive into the insightful predictions of our very own Andrew Erickson, who has taken an early look at the lines and made his picks based on the latest information about each team. If youâ€™re looking to gain an edge in your betting game and stay ahead of the competition, this article is a must-read.

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2023 NFC South Team Predictions

Atlanta Falcons over 8.5 Wins (-132 FanDuel Sportsbook)

The NFC South is the league's worst division, with question marks up and down all the teams. I want to take advantage of the unknown by betting on the team that improved dramatically in free agency and through the NFL Draft...especially when that team has the second-easiest strength of schedule based on Vegas' forecasted win totals.

Additionally, let's not forget that the Atlanta Falcons scored the most points in the division last season, with Marcus Mariota at the helm through most of the year. Per Sharp Football, Atlanta won or lost by one score or less in 15 of 17 games played. The Chiefs and Bills were the only other teams to do so.

I'd argue that the Falcons also boast one of the strongest rosters in the NFC. Their defense signed a ton of key free agents - Jessie Bates, Kaden Eliss, Bud Dupree, Calais Campbell - with their eyes set on being a winning franchise in 2023. The offense is loaded with weapons, with three top-10 overall picks selected over the past three NFL drafts between Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson.

The only reason their odds aren't shorter is because of the question marks around Desmond Ridder in Year 2. However, there isn't any better situation that Ridder could possibly be in entering the year as the team's starter. Although his college production wasn't perfect, he helped Cincinnati win games. Ridder finished his college career with the third-most wins by a quarterback in college football history at 44, and the Bearcats posted a perfect 26-0 mark at home with Ridder under center. With the league's second-easiest schedule based on Forecasted Vegas win totals and an offensive-minded head coach in Arthur Smith running the show, get ready for the Dirty Birds' wild run at the NFC South crown ( +215 at DraftKings Sportsbook) with at least 9 wins tacked on along the way.

New Orleans Saints over 9.5 wins (+114 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Saints have the easiest schedule in the NFL this season. Ergo, it's hard to envision a scenario where they don't achieve double-digit wins unless Derek Carr absolutely crumbles. Getting the wager at plus odds makes it a strong bet, but I'll be honest in saying that the better approach might be to just bet the Saints to win the division (+130) given the current setup in the NFC South.

Tampa is a potential dumpster fire. Carolina is starting Bryce Young, but 1st-round rookie QBs drafted inside the top-10 are 56-108 (34%) since 2017. Only two amassed 7 wins as a starting quarterback (Tua Tagovailoa, Baker Mayfield). None won their divisions.

I think the NFC South crown is more of a 50/50 bet between the Saints/Falcons (the latter who I prefer more of the two given the longer odds) so I don't think it's bad to bet both at plus-money odds. The only concern for the Saints hitting their win total is that Carr and Saints head coach, Dennis Allen, have never really shown a track record of winning. Allen is 15-38 as head coach (7-10 last season). Carr has had a winning record twice in 9 NFL seasons. Hence my slight hesitation on smashing the win total because they could finish under nine wins and still win the division. Tampa Bay won it last year with eight wins.

Carolina Panthers over 7.5 wins (-105 at BetMGM)

The Panthers mustered their way to seven wins a season ago, with arguably the league's worst quarterback play. They finished the season strong going 5-3 after Week 10 even after trading away star running back, Christian McCaffrey. Entering 2022, Carolina is in a decent spot from a roster construction standpoint. With Bryce Young boosting the offense to just an average level, they should be able to hit eight wins with the league's third-most favorable schedule. Before Frank Reich's firing in 2022, he averaged over nine wins per season as head coach of the Colts, going over 7.5 wins thrice. Although history has not been kind to rookie QBs surpassing seven wins in Year 1, some of that has to do with them not playing a full season. Miami won 10 games in Tua's rookie season after finishing 5-11 the season before.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers under 6.5 wins (-140 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Newly named Tampa Bay Buccaneers starting quarterback Baker Mayfield has won more than six games one time during his five-year NFL career (2020, 11). Since then, he has amassed a 10-24 record (29%). Even if he plays "well" from a statistical standpoint for those investing in Tampa Bay from a fantasy football perspective...it's likely not transitioning toward real-life wins.

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