2023 NFL Win Total Odds, Picks & Predictions: NFC West

by Andrew Erickson |
Aug 29, 2023

Join us as we dive into the insightful predictions of our very own Andrew Erickson, who has taken an early look at the lines and made his picks based on the latest information about each team. If youâ€™re looking to gain an edge in your betting game and stay ahead of the competition, this article is a must-read.

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2023 NFC West Team Predictions

Seattle Seahawks over 8.5 Wins (-142 FanDuel Sportsbook)

The first offseason NFL wager I placed was on the Seattle Seahawks to win the NFC West. Their division is very weak between the Rams/Cardinals, and the 49ers looked primed to regress after some turnover along their roster. There's an argument that Seattle boasts one of the most complete teams in the NFC, which is a much softer conference than the AFC. Not to mention, they won nine games last season in Geno Smith's first season as the starter. Feel free to alternate this line to over 9.5 wins to get plus-money odds (+130 BetMGM). On average, 2.5 teams from the NFC West have won at least nine games since the schedule extended to 17 regular season games.

San Francisco 49ers under 10.5 wins (+140 Caesars Sportsbook)

Kyle Shanahan is 16-30 without Jimmy Garoppolo since 2017. The record rested at 9-29 until Brock Purdy's 7-game winning streak - while posting an unsustainable 7.6% TD rate - at the tail end of the 2022 season. The 49ers played four road games over their overall 10-game winning streak to close out the 2022 season. Two games versus the crumbling Rams/Cardinals, one TNF victory over Seattle, and a wild OT finish versus a Jarrett Stidham-led Raiders. Needless to say, they hardly faced a murderer's row of road teams. It's a lot to ask for a team to win 10.5-plus games for a second straight season, with another new starting QB coming off a major elbow injury. Per Sharp Football, the 49ers are also at the WORST rest advantage among all teams. They haven't won more than ten games in back-to-back seasons in the Shanahan/John Lynch era. And better yet, you can get this number at plus-money odds.

Los Angeles Rams over 6.5 wins (+110 FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Rams were an utter dumpster fire in 2023, amassing just five wins. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp dealt with injuries, and the team struggled after a 3-3 start. But Sean McVay's winning track record - no fewer than nine wins in five previous seasons as Rams head coach - suggests they get back to winning games with their top WR-QB unit healthy in 2023. LA also boasts one of the youngest teams in the NFL, giving them some sneaky upside over a long 18-week season. At plus money, you need to go over the Rams' win total.

Arizona Cardinals under 4.5 wins (-120 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

I learned this lesson a long time ago...don't bet over on teams that could be looking ahead to the next season. Coming off a season-ending injury, thereâ€™s no need for the Cardinals to rush Kyler Murray back to play. With the No. 1 overall pick (plus the Texans' first-round pick) and QB prospect Caleb Williams on their radar, Arizona could go full-on tank mode to ensure they acquire a new younger franchise quarterback for 2024 and beyond. Just tough to back any over in a league driven by quarterbacks winning games...when no one is sure who will lead the Cardinals QB room for the majority of snaps this season. I probably would alternate the number done further, as I recommended for the Raidersâ€™ win total. Over the last two seasons (17-game season), we have seen an average of 1.5 teams with five wins, 2.5 teams with four wins, and two teams with three wins. Also, first-year defensive-minded head coaches have not performed well in recent years in posting wins. In 2022, Matt Eberflus won 3 games with the Bears, and Lovie Smith won 3 games with the Texans. In 2021, Robert Saleh won 4 games with the Jets.

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