2023 NFL Win Total Over/Under Odds, Picks & Predictions: AFC East

by Andrew Erickson |
Jul 27, 2023

Get ready, football fans! The NFL action may be on pause, but the excitement never stops. As we eagerly await the kickoff of the 2023 season in September, the off-field drama is already HOT, with NFL Win Totals begging for action. Itâ€™s time to analyze and strategize as we break down the Over/Under Win Totals for each team in the AFC East and uncover the best bets for the upcoming season.

Join us as we dive into the insightful predictions of our very own Andrew Erickson, who has taken an early look at the lines and made his picks based on the latest information about each team. So, if youâ€™re looking to gain an edge in your betting game and stay ahead of the competition, this article is a must-read. Get ready to unleash your football prowess and make some savvy bets for a thrilling season ahead!

Check out all 2023 NFL Win Total odds across different sportsbooks >>

2023 NFL Team Win Totals Over/Under Picks & Predictions

AFC East Team Win Totals

New England Patriots over 6.5 wins (-155 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Bill Belichick has had one season with fewer than 7 wins since becoming the head coach of the New England Patriots. Last three years without Tom Brady, the Pats have amassed 7, 10, and 8 total wins.

If they can just go 2-6 or 3-3 in the division (they went 3-3 last year), plus come away with wins against teams New Orleans, Las Vegas, Washington, and/or Indianapolis, the Patriots should hit the over on this altered 6.5-win total offered by FanDuel. New England should be able to sneak out at least one more W on the road versus Denver, Pittsburgh, or New York (Giants).

As bad as the team was on offense last year by perception, they still ranked 22nd in EPA/dropback. That can only improve with Bill Oâ€™Brien taking over as offensive coordinator. Buy the dip.

Miami Dolphins over 9.5 wins (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Dolphins went 8-4 in games where Tua Tagovailoa was their healthy quarterback and 1-4 in games without him. A bet on the over appears like a bet on Tagovailoa staying healthy. But the fact that the Dolphins brought in a solid backup quarterback in Mike White suggests they will be more prepared than last season if Tua misses any time. Combine that with their top-10 projected defense led by new DC Vic Fangio, and the over is the play here.

Buffalo Bills over 10.5 wins (-130 Caesars Sportsbook)

Buffalo has won the AFC East for three straight seasons, averaging 12.3 wins per season. They finished 1st in the AFC in point differential and second overall in Pythagorean Expected Wins (12) despite playing one fewer game. I'll wait to see them get dethroned before jumping off the Bills Mafia bandwagon.

New York Jets under 9.5 wins (+105 Caesars Sportsbook)

Three overs so far in the AFC East, so naturally, the move on the New York Jets is toward the under. With so many moving pieces led by the addition of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, there's no guarantee that this team hits the ground running. Especially when tasked with facing the most difficult schedule over the first six weeks of the year (7^th-most difficult overall through the entire season). High-end defensive performances also tend to be difficult to duplicate year over year, and the Jets still have some major weaknesses across their OL. Not ideal for a 39-year-old QB coming off career lows across the board and a losing record for the first time since 2018. Fade the Gang Green hype.

Get the full list of 2023 NFL Win Total odds >>

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