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NHL Playoffs Same Game Parlay Picks & Predictions: Sunday (5/14)

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The NHL serves us just one game on Mother’s Day Sunday, as the Vegas Golden Knights will look to close out the Edmonton Oilers on the road in Game 6.

And apparently, the league and its television partners really want fans to enjoy their Mother’s Day brunches, as puck drop is (inexplicably) slated for 10 p.m. ET. Enjoy those ratings, ESPN.

It might just be Vegas and Edmonton fans watching alongside us bettors, and let’s not waste anymore time. Here’s my same-game parlay for this pivotal Game 6.

Sunday’s Best NHL Playoffs Same Game Parlay

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Vegas Golden Knights (+155) at Edmonton Oilers (-190) | Total 6.5

    • Leg 1: Under 6.5 goals
    • Leg 2: Leon Draisaitl anytime goalscorer
    • Leg 3: Mattias Janmark anytime goalscorer
    • Odds: +1700

The oddsmakers clearly believe in Edmonton’s ability to keep this series alive on home ice. And it’s understandable when taking a look at the postgame metrics. The Golden Knights didn’t really dominate at 5-on-5 in Game 5, holding just 51.5% of possession. The scoring chances and high-danger opportunities were nearly dead-even as well.

A look at expected goals suggests Vegas was still slightly better, albeit by just a 1.25-1.12 expected margin. Yet, the Golden Knights outscored the Oilers 2-0 in reality.

It also is worth noting that there was not a ton of game played at 5-on-5, thanks to a combined 11 penalties and 35 penalty minutes. Unsurprisingly, Edmonton cashed in on Vegas’ undisciplined play, as all three of their goals came on the man advantage.

Essentially, Game 5 told us a lot of stuff we already knew. Vegas is the deeper, better team at 5-on-5. But the Oilers have the two best players and will likely crush you for taking trips to the sin bin.

But now Edmonton has a potential goaltending controversy on its hands. Stuart Skinner was once again rough in Game 5, allowing four goals on 22 shots. He was eventually pulled for Jack Campbell, who made nine saves and kept Edmonton within striking distance. Skinner’s poor performance isn’t a fluke either, as he now ranks second-worst among goalies in goals saved above expected during the postseason. Meanwhile, Campbell ranks fifth among goaltenders despite making just three appearances in the postseason.

Edmonton has stuck with Skinner to this point, but I suspect coach Jay Woodcroft makes a change in the crease Sunday night. And while Campbell is as enigmatic as they come, he can only be an upgrade over Skinner at this point.

Does a change in net automatically make Edmonton worthy of laying nearly $2 on? Absolutely not. But I do think he will perform better than Skinner. I’d also expect both teams to bring a much more disciplined mindset in an elimination game after Games 4 and 5 got a bit out of hand. That could result in fewer power play opportunities for both sides. And considering how few chances were generated at 5-on-5 in Game 5, I think all of this makes the under 6.5 my favorite play in this game.

If I had to take a side, I would go with Vegas purely on price. But the zig-zag theory appears to be 100% real in this series, so I understand the rationale for taking the Oilers on home ice. Sometimes, a series just feels destined to go the distance.

Check out our other best bets for Sunday:


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