2023 PGA Championship Odds, Picks & Predictions

There is nothing quite like Major Championship golf. This is doubly true when the host venue is a legendary course like Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, N.Y.

Six men’s major championships have been held here at the East Course, most recently the 2013 PGA Championship won by Jason Dufner. Recent renovations have returned Oak Hill to its roots and Donald Ross’s design signatures. The Oak Hill mystique is just as real as the excitement leading into the second major of 2023.

The East Course at Oak Hill Country Club will play to a par-70 this week for the PGA Championship, stretching to just under 7,400 yards. The greens are Bentgrass with severe back-to-front sloping on most of the complexes, with crowned runoff areas and cavernous bunkers mown to look a bit rough around the edges (a nice homage to Ross).

The entire golf bag must be in sharp order to win here, especially from tee to green. There are plenty of ways to be occluded from a scoring opportunity from a poorly planned shot. However, many towering oak trees have been removed to reestablish the original course alignment. There are also only a handful of chances to card a birdie at Oak Hill, with many precarious ways to feel great about par.

Recent form is heavily weighted in my statistical model, followed by Strokes Gained from Tee to Green (SG: T2G) and bogey avoidance. Most par-70 tracks force us to focus on scoring on par-4 holes, and this is no different. The Masters taught us that the LIV defectors are still, indeed, good at golf. There will be no bias against them whatsoever.

With that in mind, let’s tee off some winning wagers.

2023 PGA Championship Odds, Picks & Predictions

(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Xander Schauffele (Outright +1600 [1u]; Top-5 +360 [1u])

Xander Schauffele’s line has moved dramatically in recent days. He is picking up a lot of steam from all over the golf betting community and for good reason. There aren’t many golfers in better form than Schauffele entering the week. I had my mind set on picking him before I even ran my model, then it was confirmed when he came in seventh overall in this field. Schauffele is a grinder who has learned how to win in recent years. He also excels on difficult courses, where Oak Hill definitely qualifies. Schauffele’s path to victory will certainly pertain to his immaculate short game.

Dustin Johnson (Outright +3000 [1u]; Top-5 +550 [1u])

Dustin Johnson is an exception to the popular notion that many of the LIV Tour defectors aren’t held in high public regard. His appearance on the Netflix special “Full Swing” further solidified him as a good dude in the minds of golf fans. DJ is also supremely gifted at the game of golf. He took home his second LIV victory last week in Tulsa and looked every bit as ready as he will need to be to contend at Oak Hill. Much like at Augusta National, the LIV golfers are sporting some very soft odds. I will hit them again without hesitation.

Matt Fitzpatrick (Outright +3000 [1u]; Top-10 +280 [1u])

I am slowly coming around on young Englishman Matt Fitzpatrick. His victory at Brookline last year was gutsy and showed the grit needed to win Majors. Fitz is outstanding from tee to green, but his trademark trait is scrambling and bogey avoidance. With his stellar form over the past calendar year, a 30-1 line was too sweet to pass up.

Cameron Smith (Outright +3500 [1u]; Top-10 +320 [1u])

It took a lot more scrolling than I expected to find one of the best golfers in the world on the odds sheet. Cameron Smith is third in my model, seemingly in the top 10 in this field at every key metric. My initial apprehension with his off-the-tee game was swiftly calmed when he came in sixth in driving accuracy. He’s won a Major. The mulleted Aussie has also won the PLAYERS Championship, where golfers must take a cerebral approach to the course like at Oak Hill. As far as I’m concerned, there isn’t a more lethal golfer from 150 yards through holing out on the planet. 35-1 on DraftKings Sportsbook is comedy.

Joaquin Niemann (Outright +7000 [0.5u]; Top-10 +600 [0.5u])

Well now… My third LIV pick was my dark horse favorite last week when pressed for one. Lo and behold, Joaquin Niemann also came in at the very top of my statistical model - No. 1. Many have already forgotten the Chilean’s dominant stretch last season before cashing in on the LIV offer. There aren’t more than a handful of better ball-strikers in the world, and the odds are incredible. Even a top-10 wager pays six to one. Pinch me.

Si Woo Kim (Outright +9000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +280 [0.5u])

Recent form brought me right back to the well with Si Woo Kim. The South Korean, known for his gaudy PGA Tour apparel logos, is also quietly enjoying a superb 2023 season. He flashed at 20th in my model and provides a great chance to take a shot on a streaky golfer who occasionally scores ridiculously well in brutal conditions. He also looked great just last week with a runner-up finish at the Byron Nelson, so his confidence is peaking at the right time.

Kurt Kitayama (Outright +25000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +600 [0.5u])

It isn’t ideal that Kurt Kitayama has missed four cuts in a row after his dramatic win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. There wasn’t much promise leading into that event, either. My indication with predicting that win was purely on course fit and mental makeup. Kitayama is impervious to pressure. He proved it when he stared down half of the best golfers in the world to win at Bay Hill. The pride of Northern California excels on approach from 200-plus yards, especially from the fairway. The long approaches at Oak Hill are often forced by the layout, so Kitayama can score with anyone if he has any measure of success at finding the fairway this week.

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