2023 Preakness: Best Exotic Bets, Picks & Predictions

After an exciting Kentucky Derby that resulted in big paydays for anyone who had Mage or an exotic bet with the first three horses, there will be only eight horses on the starting line at the Preakness. Kentucky Derby winner Mage is the favorite at 8-5, but there are three other horses with morning line odds under 10-1.

Can Mage, a horse that has generally been taking off about a month between races turn around and win another race just two weeks after the Kentucky Derby? Or is better to look elsewhere and throw Mage at the back of an exotic? Is there a world in which the Kentucky Derby winner doesn’t finish in the top half of this eight-horse race?

Let’s take a look at the best exotic bets for the 2023 Preakness Stakes.

What are exotic bets in horse racing? 

Exotic wagers are like horse racing’s version of parlays in sports betting. They are low-probability wagers that can carry some massive payouts if lady luck is on your side. And like a parlay, you need each leg to occur to win.

There are tons of different types of exotic wagers out there, but for the purpose of this article, we’ll stick to the main three:

• Exacta: Picking the horses that will come in first and second place.
• Trifecta: Picking the horses that will come in first, second and third place.
• Superfecta: Picking the horses that will come in first, second, third, and fourth place.

Another unique option in horse racing is the ability to “box” your exotic wagers. When you box a wager, you’re playing all of the possible combinations of your wager. This gives you a better chance to win, but increases your initial wager.

Let’s use an exacta as the simplest example. Say you bet a $1 exacta with Horse A finishing first and Horse B finishing second. If you do a straight exacta, you only win if Horse A and Horse B finish first and second exactly. If you box this exacta, it becomes a $2 wager (because there are two possible outcomes), but you will win if Horse B comes in first and Horse A comes in second.

It’s worth noting that you can bet more than two horses in an exacta, but keep in mind that your wager will increase. Say you take Horse A, B, and C in an exacta box, that becomes a $6 wager because of the six possible combinations.

Best Exotic Wagers for the 2023 Preakness

$2 Exacta Box: (1) National Treasure / (7) Blazing Sevens

We believe that the best exacta in this race omits the favorite. Blazing Sevens is a solid horse that is going to be fresh heading into this one. He has solid results and every race he has lost has been to a very good horse.

Meanwhile, National Treasure is a Bob Baffert-trained horse that will be ridden by John Velazquez. That’s a power duo. The horse is pretty good as well, though it did only finish fourth its last time out at the Santa Anita Derby. 

With Mage running on a much quicker turnaround than he has in his career, these are the two horses to watch. If forced to pick between the two, we’d go with Blazing Sevens as the winner then National Treasure in second. But without much risk, this is worth boxing for a total $4 bet.

$2 Trifecta Box: (1) National Treasure / (7) Blazing Sevens / (5) Red Route One

A $1 trifecta at the Kentucky Derby paid nearly $1,000. In a race with just eight horses, you’re not going to see a number like that, but barring a massive upset, the trifecta is where you will make your money at this race. 

Again, we’re going to leave out Mage, especially since the horse is likely to go off at even money or better. We really need to find a way to beat this horse to make these bets worthwhile. We’re sticking with National Treasure and Blazing Sevens, but who is our third horse?

While many will go with First Mission, the horse is being significantly overvalued. It could win this race, but the odds simply aren’t warranted considering what this horse has done. Instead, we’re going to go with Red Route One. 

Red Route One was trained by Steve Asmussen and will be ridden by Joel Rosario. Both men were involved in the fourth-place finish for Disarm at the Kentucky Derby. At 10-1 odds, this is a horse that is definitely worth a look and would elevate the payout for a trifecta.

$.10 Superfecta Box: (1) National Treasure / (7) Blazing Sevens / (5) Red Route One / (3) Mage

Let’s finally include Mage. I was high on this horse entering the Kentucky Derby, going on record saying it would finish in the top three. But this is a horse that simply needs more time in between races. If he hadn’t won the Kentucky Derby, he would not be running in the Preakness. 

But if you want to take a chance with a superfecta, it feels obligatory to include Mage. A $.10 box will cost you $2.40. With these four horses, the payout won’t be massive unless Red Route One wins, but it’s still worth a shot considering how few horses are running.

Potential Spoiler

If you don’t like National Treasure or Blazing Sevens, then we haven’t given you many options. So if you feel you must omit one of them, who should you throw in instead? Coffeewithchris at 20-1 could prove problematic if the pace is fast enough. This a horse that will look to run from the front, and if the other horses give him a clear enough path, then Coffeewithchris could take the whole thing.

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