2023 Preakness Stakes: Odds, Trends & Best Bets
The third Saturday in May is just days away and with it the 148th Preakness Stakes. The Run for the Black-eyed Susans will start at approximately 7:01 pm ET on Saturday, May 20 at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland.
2023 Preakness Stakes Trends & Best Bets
Winning Trends by Post Position Since 1909
1 – National Treasure (4-1) – (Post 1 winners – 12, Most Recent – Rombauer, 2021)
2 – Chase the Choas (50-1) – (Post 2 winners – 12, Most Recent – Cloud Computing, 2017)
3 – Mage (8-5) – (Post 3 winners – 12, Most Recent – California Chrome, 2014)
4 – Coffeewithchris (20-1) – (Post 4 winners – 14, Most Recent – Swiss Skydiver, 2020)
5 – Red Route One (10-1) – (Post 5 winners – 13, Most Recent – Early Voting, 2022)
6 – Perform (15-1) – (Post 6 winners – 16, Most Recent – Oxbow, 2013)
7 – Blazing Sevens (6-1) – (Post 8 winners – 14, Most Recent – Justify, 2018)
8 – First Mission (5-2) – (Post 8 winners – 10, Most Recent – Bernardini, 2006)
9 thru 13 – N/A – (These 5 posts have only produced 12 winners combined anyways)
Trend-Based Bad Bets
There are no bad horses, only bad bets, so we will use the phrase “Trend-Based Bad Bets†for the following entrants. These are horses that statistically and historically face factors that are poor bets to win the Preakness. Anything is possible in horse racing, but I am a process-driven bettor and these bets are the antithesis of process-driven. Full disclosure, Mage fell into this section in my Kentucky Derby preview, due to not having run as a 2-year-old, but like I said, anything can happen on race day.
Not by a Longshot
Only four of the 147 Preakness Stakes winners all-time have opened with longer odds than 15-1. This likely rules out Chase the Chaos and Coffeewithchris. In fact, the longest opening odds for a Preakness winner was 23-1 (Master Derby, 1975) essentially double-eliminating Chase the Chaos at 50-1.
Positive Preakness Trends
My Old Kentucky Home
103 of the 147 Preakness winners have been Kentucky-bred, including the last eight. Chase the Chaos (PA) and Coffeewithchris (MD) are the only two horses this year that do not fit this criterion. However, of the 44 winners not bred in the Blue Grass State, eight were homegrown winners, bred in Maryland, although half of them won in the late 19th century. The last Maryland-bred winner was Deputed Testamony in 1983 and the last winner bred outside of Kentucky was California Chrome in 2014. Can you guess where he was bred?
Making the Grade
Since 1997, 23 of the 26 Preakness winners had a graded stakes victory and 17 of 26 had won a Grade 1 race prior to the Preakness. In fact, each of the last 26 winners had, at worst, come in second in a graded stakes race. In this field, Chase the Chaos (LS), Mage (G1), Coffeewithchris (LS), Red Route Run (LS), Perform (LS), and First Mission (G3) have all won graded stakes races. Additionally, National Treasure at least came in second in a graded stakes race. This trend does not bode well for Blazing Sevens, whose best graded stakes finish is a distant 3rd behind two Derby horses, Tapit Trice and Verifying, in his last race, the Blue Grass Stakes.
Need for Speed
In recent years, the Preakness has favored pacesetters and stalkers, as 13 of the last 15 winners have been within 4 lengths of the leader after the opening 1/2 mile. The only two horses to win after being in the back half of the field at the 1/2 mile mark are Rombauer in 2021 and Exaggerator in 2014 and the latter rode the rail in the firmest part of the sloppy track that day in a perfect storm. Horses make great runs in the final stretch to win the Preakness all the time, it’s just with an increasing rarity that they do so from way back. The relatively short 1 3/16 mile race is simply not enough track for most deep closers. Four of the last 15 winners have been wire-to-wire winners and with just two pacesetters (Coffeewithchris, First Mission) this trend definitely favors these two. It especially favors First Mission and his short odds if he can overcome the “wide†draw and get out ahead of the field early.
Keeping It 100…or Better
Since 1962, every Preakness Winner has posted an Equibase Speed Figure greater than 100. Of the eight horses in this year’s field, only National Treasure, Mage, Red Route One, and First Mission have ever hit this number.
Mage is Big, It’s the Field That Got Small
The last two 8-horse fields (2015, 2018) have been won by Kentucky Derby champs (American Pharoah, Justify) on the way to Triple Crowns. However, in the 25 years prior to 2015, there were five times the field included fewer than nine horses and all five times the Kentucky Derby winner was unable to come away with a Preakness victory.
Following in Justify’s Footsteps
Mage became just the third horse to ever win the Kentucky Derby without racing as a two-year-old, joining only Apollo (1882) and Justify (2018). The Kentucky Derby was the only Triple Crown race victory for Apollo but Justify won the Preakness Stakes on his way to the 13th-ever, and most recent, Triple Crown.
One is the Loneliest Number
For the first time since 1948, the Preakness Stakes will only feature one horse that ran in the Kentucky Derby. Mage is the only holdover, as, despite the quick two-week turnaround for a horse, especially one that has had a month between races each time during his young career, the allure of the potential Triple Crown is too much to ignore. A tick in Mage’s favor is the fact that the horse that won the last such Preakness in 1948 was Citation, who had also won the Kentucky Derby and would go on to become the eighth Triple Crown champion. This will be Mage’s fifth career race (2-1-0) as he looks to become the 37th horse to win both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.
That being said, four of the last six Preakness Stakes winners did not run in the Kentucky Derby so that favors the rest of the field.
Guess Who’s Back?
Bob Baffert-trained National Treasure drew the 1-post and represents Baffert’s first Triple Crown race entry since the 2021 Preakness. Baffert is tied with R. Wyndham Walden for most Preakness wins all-time at seven. Granted, Baffert has won seven of the last 26 races while Walden’s final victory came in 1888 which is a testament to just how hard it is to wear the Black-eyed Susans that many times. Say what you want about Baffert’s questionable training practices, the man racks up Ws. If National Treasure can ride the rail to victory, it will make Baffert the all-time wins leader in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, so if you are into witnessing history, throw your money that way.
Pedigrees
National Treasure (Quality Road – Treasure by Medaglia d’Oro) – A
Chase the Chaos (Astern – Live the Moment by Uncle Mo)
Mage (Good Magic – Puca by Big Brown) – A
Coffeewithchris (Ride On Curlin – Andiemac by Outflanker) – A
Red Route One (Gun Runner – Red House by Tapit)
Perform (Good Magic – Jane Says by Tale of Ekati) – A
Blazing Sevens (Good Magic, Trophy Girl by Warrior’s Reward) – A
First Mission (Street Sense, Elude by Medaglio d’Oro) – RAN
*A denotes Alydar in their pedigree
**RAN denotes Raise a Native in their pedigree
Two of the last three Preakness winners (Swiss Skydiver ’20, Rombauer ’21) had the late, great Alydar (my favorite horse of all time) in their bloodline. Alydar was sired by the legendary stallion, Raise a Native. Dating back to 2009, the last 14 Preakness winners are descendants of Raise of Native, with all but last year’s winner, Early Voting, having him as close as within their 5×5 pedigree. Raise a Native was a foundational sire that was the direct ancestor of 22 Kentucky Derby champions and the son of Native Dancer who was damsire to Northern Dancer, arguably the most influential stallion of the 20th century. Out of this year’s field, five horses are descendants of Alydar, instantly giving them Raise a Native in their 5×5. First Mission is not descended from Alydar but does possess Raise a Native in his 5×5. Chase the Chaos and Red Route One are the only two horses in this already limited field that do not have Raise a Native in their 5×5, all but eliminating them from winning based on recent trends.
Best Boxed Superfecta: National Treasure – First Mission – Perform – Mage (1-8-6-3)
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket
Luke Monaldo is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @MoKnowsSports. For more from Luke, check out his archive.