2023 RBC Heritage Odds, Picks & Predictions

To the casual observer, the week after an event as illustrious and emotionally invested as The Masters might bring about sort of a letdown. The green jacket is now on Jon Rahm’s broad shoulders after a dominant four-stroke victory at Augusta National. Another jacket will be the proverbial carrot this week. This time, it’s red plaid (snazzy!). The RBC Heritage is a beloved event on the PGA Tour schedule. It is one of five “invitational” events with an abbreviated field of 132. The Heritage also sports the coveted “designated” status that draws all the world’s best to a purse teeming with riches.

We did manage to cash a couple more tickets before leaving the Georgia hills. Patrick Reed was our star, easily cashing our top-20 bet at +190 by tying for fourth place. Tom Kim also cashed a top-20 wager at +220 with a t-16 finish. Our favorite to win was defending champ Scottie Scheffler, who struggled to make birdie putts all week. He still managed to crack the top 10, but it was on negative odds and subject to a ties split at certain books. Kurt Kitayama missed the cut in his first Masters appearance, but he’s still the golden goose that allows us to coast through the season certain of a profit.

The RBC Heritage is played at Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, South Carolina. The track is a coastal links style, stretching to nearly 7,200 yards with a par of 71. The field is as strong as it has ever been here, thanks to the event’s newly elevated status. That still does not mean that Harbour Town won’t prefer a lesser-known champion in its unique setup. Many Tour professionals have slipped on the plaid blazer to mark their first (and often only) victory. It must be immediately mentioned that my weighted statistical model for the Heritage is uniquely geared toward normally undercounted data points. We must win with weird this week.

With all the talk around the controversial planned roll-back in golf ball technology, it seems silly that distance disparity between professional and amateur golfers is still the hot-button talking point. The real difference between elite golfers and weekend warriors has a lot more to do with consistency and mental approach, along with the big one: the short game. The Heritage is a microcosm of that well-placed theory, often hoisting distance-challenged sharpshooters with impeccable touch to the plaid pedestal. Just as a poisoned Theoden cackled to Gandalf in The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, “You have no power here.” Distance is useless at Harbour Town.

The key metrics this week are much more specifically weighted than in past events. Accuracy is important. Precision is paramount. Any tournament with past winners such as Satoshi Kodaira and Pan Cheng-Tsung is bound to favor some oddly specific metrics. Scoring here isn’t overly difficult, but birdies are usually as a result of keen shot-making. The greens are miniscule and well-guarded. The fairways jut to and fro abruptly, with lines often obstructed by trees. Pete Dye was a diabolical villain of a course designer and Harbour Town might be his most dastardly equalizer. Strokes gained on short approach (100-150 yards) and around the green are incredibly important. Driving accuracy is included in the model, along with bogey avoidance and scrambling. We are hunting a takedown this week, so here are the golfers who I will invest in at the RBC Heritage.

2023 RBC Heritage Odds, Picks & Predictions

(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Collin Morikawa (Outright +1800 [1u]; Top-5 +400 [1u])

With the remarkable form shown by Rahm and others this season, it has been easy to forget about Collin Morikawa. He has yet to win this season, but has otherwise shown to be worthy of his 12th-ranked standing in the Official World Golf Rankings. An elite approach player, Morikawa tied for 26th at last year’s Heritage. That was at a time when he was scuffling with his putting stroke. With how well the Cal Bear has been playing this season, it’s only a matter of time before his immense talent allows him to push through for another victory.

Sungjae Im (Outright +2500 [1u]; Top-10 +275 [1u])

Along the same lines as Morikawa, Sungjae Im is a dart thrower with his irons. Im also sports wonderful skill and touch around the green and is generally accurate off the tee. Only a slow start to the 2022 RBC Heritage doomed the Korean to a tie for 21st place. This is the type of golf course where Im shines the brightest, and his odds are currently much too soft.

Tom Kim (Outright +4000 [0.5u]; Top-10 +360 [0.5u])

It’s hard not to bet on the jovial nature and sheer talent of golf prodigy, Tom Kim. He is a fan favorite who is another outstanding iron player. His putter has been balky at times, costing him crucial birdie chances under pressure. Kim has thankfully excelled at golf courses with small green complexes because he is among the world’s best at proximity on approach.

Tom Hoge (Outright +9000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +300 [0.5u])

Speaking of approach, Tom Hoge is the best in the world with his second shot. This is especially true with the expected approach distances the golfers will face at Harbour Town. The only hesitation with Hoge is that he is abysmal around the green. If Hoge isn’t quite as sharp as he has been, he will quickly evaporate from contention like last season here. At 90-1 odds, he’s plenty good enough to live up to the expectation that his birdie putts will be more makeable than those of his competitors.

Aaron Rai (Outright +18000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +450 [0.5u])

The crafty Englishman Aaron Rai is the first of three deep shots I am taking in this field with prototype players. Rai is among the most accurate players on Tour and has a stellar short game. Where he has struggled has been on courses that favor bombers. Harbour Town offers up a paradoxical favoritism to the straight shooters of the world. Rai’s recent form lends confidence that he will put himself right in the thick of it.

Akshay Bhatia (Outright +30000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +750 [0.25u]; Top-40 +275 [0.5u])

I will stubbornly and steadfastly maintain my vow to keep tossing coins on the future of golf, hoping for that big splash win. Akshay Bhatia is right along with Tom Kim as a glimmering feel-good story, buttressed by immense golfing talent. Bhatia also happens to be a sharpshooter with his short irons and boasts a well-developed feel around the greens for his age and experience level. His first win is imminent, so let’s keep the faith.

David Lipsky (Outright +40000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +900 [0.25u]; Top-40 +350 [0.5u])

Where it has been the Webb Simpson show here at Hilton Head for a few years, before that it was Jim Furyk and Zach Johnson. What do all of these golfers have in common? They always seem to pop on the leaderboard at specific events like the Heritage. Lipsky is a phenomenal player from 150 yards and in. Where he is often not good enough to compete with the big boys on Tour, his best attributes will be greatly magnified this week. I was honestly shocked that his odds were so soft, despite his solid form in recent weeks.

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