2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions

Playing golf is the easiest way to deflate a big ego. Even the best in the world go through extreme peaks and valleys during their playing careers. Those highs and lows follow right along with any other cause of addiction. Golf is up there with caffeine, sugar and other mind-bending substances.

Why can’t we just… quit? The simple answer is: One little moment of excellence is a dew drop on our parched tongues. A birdie putt drops, and confidence soars.

Golf betting, of course, is gambling. As a non-addict of risking sums of money in hopes it’s not just magically turning into another bank of pretty lights in Vegas, I still understand the draw. Chasing highs is fun.

After a complete strike-out week at the Travelers, the same nagging self-doubt comes bubbling to the surface like I just three-putted from six feet. Back down to earth, spurs dug in, giddyup.

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2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Rocket Mortgage Classic is the second birdie fest in a row for the PGA Tour but offers a different type of flair than the Travelers. Detroit Golf Club is a bomber’s paradise. The 7,300-yard track offers spacious fairways and light bentgrass rough. The par-72 setup has been obliterated by the field over its handful of years on Tour and will almost assuredly award the trophy to a golfer better than 20-under par. Defending champion Tony Finau will try to pull his game together to repeat, but the field has some red-hot talent trying to grab it from him.

My weighted statistical model was very successful in the DFS streets last week. Unfortunately, it didn’t produce any winning bets. The idea of winning this week comes down to scoring. The course has four par-5 holes, so golfers must score on them to keep pace.

Birdie-or-better percentage (BOB%) is paramount, along with ball-striking and putting on bentgrass greens. A bit of preference will also lean toward the longer hitters since they will wield more manageable irons on approach. Ultimately, the lines are over-inflated at the top, leaving a lot of great value on up-and-coming talent. We’re cruising through the Motor City; let’s tee off.

Justin Thomas (Outright +1800 [1u]; Top-5 +400 [1u])

Even when the very most talented golfers in the world scuffle with their game for a short period of time, they are cast aside like Andy’s toys. Justin Thomas is an all-time great and Major winner. He also pulled out of a major funk last week with a top-10 finish at TPC River Highlands. “JT” now goes after a course in Detroit Golf Club that he will be able to attack freely with the strengths of his game. Among the favorites here, Thomas is the only one whose odds don’t feel like they’re full of helium.

Austin Eckroat (Outright +4500 [1u]; Top-10 +450 [1u]

This golfer is red hot right now. Austin Eckroat is a birdie barrage waiting to happen. His strength is off the tee, where he ranks 23rd on the PGA Tour in strokes gained. The rest of his bag has been solid over the past two months, encompassing three top-10 finishes (two were top-5s). Although I’d prefer trying to find some softer odds at other books, the type of roll Eckroat is on warrants serious consideration for an outright smash in this vicinity.

Joseph Bramlett (Outright +7000 [0.5u]; Top-10 +650 [0.5u])

Some people are actually out here betting on Luke List in 2023. It’s as if the version of him who can actually make putts, Joseph Bramlett, doesn’t exist. I do find it peculiar that Bramlett’s odds are more favorable than List’s, but there mustn’t be any hesitation onto whom you hitch your wagon. Bramlett is 10th in driving distance and really is a beautiful ball striker (29th in SG: Tee to Green). His weakness is still on the greens, where he loses an average of a quarter stroke per round to the field. That is still a vast improvement over last season, where he lost nearly a full stroke per round to the field putting. The results have come along with that glow-up with the flat stick, yielding a much better BOB% and scoring average.

Kevin Yu (Outright +9000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +350 [0.5u])

I made a sudden realization late last week. One of the world’s best young ball strikers was returning from a knee injury for the Travelers and was going to put on a show. Kevin Yu has a picturesque golf swing and majestic ball flight. He was unconscious at Pebble Beach, making birdies in bunches before needing surgery on his knee. The native of Chinese Taipei is only 24 years old, but should also be a name you keep on file. Yu is a stripe show on the course, and his limitations on the PGA Tour so far have been due to poor putting. If he can see a few go in this week, watch out. The former Arizona State Sun Devil can very easily post a score worthy of a win here.

Akshay Bhatia (Outright +11000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +400 [0.5u])

Can you believe this guy is still only 21 years old? Akshay Bhatia was stripped down mud wrestling at the Honda Classic and once made six consecutive birdies. Don’t let his bad short-game numbers fool you. Bhatia had some major implosions on and around the greens during some of the more challenging events in this rookie season. On easier courses, he has been knocking on the door with an outstanding off-the-tee and approach game. Bhatia is on the short list of golfers who won’t be in the triple-digit odds much longer. So get on board to cash big when he puts it together for four rounds.

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