2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic: First Round Leader Odds, Picks & Predictions

As the calendar turns to July, the PGA Tour shifts to Detroit for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. A relatively new event, 2023 will be just the fifth edition. That means we have limited course history, but there is enough data to draw some solid conclusions.

Detroit Golf Club will once again host the Classic. This week it will play 7,370 yards and par is 72. The most interesting fact about DGC is that it is the flattest course in the tour’s rotation. While there’s not much elevation change, there should be some emphasis on accuracy off the tee with tree-lined fairways. Perhaps the most important stat to consider will be Proximity to Hole on approach shots as DGC has several two-tiered greens.

Scores should be similar to last week’s Travelers Championship. The cut line has been as low as -5 here in the past, and the winner has been anywhere between 16 and 25 under par in the four previous years.

What does all this tell us? Look for golfers who have excellent Proximity to Hole numbers, are more accurate off the tee than not, and lean on the limited course history to determine who we should be backing this week. Let’s get to the picks.

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2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic: First Round Leader Odds

Chris Kirk (65-1) 

You might look at Kirk’s results this season and wonder why he’d be on this list. It’s quite simple actually. The Georgia native seems to like it here. In three starts, Kirk has finished no worse than T21 and opened with rounds of 65 in two of those three events. Add in the fact that the 38 year-old is 39th in overall proximity and there’s more than enough here to back Kirk to be atop the leaderboard at the end of the first round.

J.J. Spaun (70-1)

Much like Kirk, Spaun seems to like it here. In four appearances, the California native has a top ten finish and has made the cut each year. In three of those four events, Spaun has posted opening rounds of 66. The San Diego St. alum has carded a 60 already this year and is capable of doing it again. With a ranking of 20th on tour in Approaches from 200-225 Yards, look for the 32 year-old to come out of the gates hot in Detroit this week and potentially have the lowest round of the day on Thursday.

Matt Wallace (90-1)

When Wallace is on, he can compete with the best in the world. When he’s not, he’s usually not playing the weekend. Sure, the Englishman has missed more cuts than he’s made this season, but the 33 year-old seems to enjoy the flat landscape here. In two appearances, Wallace has finished T12 and T10. Just like Spaun, Wallace has posted an opening round 66 in both years. The statistics don’t favor Wallace, but backing him here with such a great history and trying to catch lightning in a bottle at this number is worth a small wager.

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