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2023 Sony Open in Hawaii Odds, Picks & Predictions: Outright Winners

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That was certainly a wild start to the 2023 season. The Sentry Tournament of Champions was a rollercoaster. It was shaping up to be a runaway victory for my betting favorite Collin Morikawa until his first two bogeys of the tournament coincided with a torrid Sunday finish by Jon Rahm. Even with our guy’s staggering collapse, the bets were still a resounding, bankroll-building profit.

Let’s not get too full of hubris. It is a long and arduous season ahead. The Sony Open at Waialae Country Club on the island of Oahu, Hawai’i has been a PGA Tour mainstay since 1965. Before you assume it will be similar to last week’s romp at Kapalua on the scenic cliffs of Maui, just understand that there really aren’t many parallels between the two tournaments.

The Sony Open is a cut event on a par-70 track with longer rough than in years past. Hideki Matsuyama will attempt to defend his victory last year when he prevailed in a playoff over Russell Henley. The oft-discussed Pacific trade winds will be a factor this week, providing another wrinkle of difficulty for the players to navigate. The type of players who excel at Waialae are strong on approach with short and mid irons. The champion must also be strong around the greens, especially getting up and down from thick, spindly rough.

Although tempting, the favorites here aren’t often the eventual champions. Conversely, some of the golfers with the longest odds are primed to soundly beat expectations and aid in profitable betting. I bet with my chest out most weeks. This will be no exception.

Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

2023 Sony Open in Hawaii Odds, Picks & Predictions

Russell Henley (+2000 Outright [1u])

The Sony Open champions in the past are a who’s who of pin-seeking approach players. Henley won here in 2013 and has hunted the trophy at Waialae ever since. He famously imploded on the first playoff hole last year, losing to Matsuyama in dramatic fashion. Hideki was a worthy champion, however, with consecutive rounds of seven-under 63 on the weekend to run down Henley’s sizable 36-hole lead. Henley was second-best on tour in Strokes Gained on Approach (SG: APP) in 2022, leaving no mystery as to why he always seems to play well on Oahu.

Corey Conners (+2200 Outright [1u])

As much as I derided Conners for burning me repeatedly in DFS last season, he is a sparkling play this week at the Sony Open. The joyful Canadian bomber is also incredible with his short irons, leaving only a streaky putter to determine his fate. Conners was 16th in SG: APP last season and showed up strongly in a number of events, including an 11th-place finish at Waialae. With his very strong recent form, Conners will get my heaviest investment this week.

Kurt Kitayama (+5500 Outright [0.5u])

I will humbly admit my bias in favoring Kitayama this week. Although he missed the cut in this event in 2022, it spurred a huge turnaround in his rookie season. Kitayama and I share the same birthplace in Chico, California and I competed against his older brother Daniel in high school. Daniel played collegiate golf in Hawai’i and young Kurt would often tag along, eventually becoming a burgeoning PGA Tour star. Since the wraparound schedule for the 2022-23 season began, Kitayama has been incredible from tee to green. He ranks 14th in SG: APP and 10th in Strokes Gained Around the Green (SG: ATG).

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