2023 Sony Open in Hawaii Odds, Picks & Predictions
That was certainly a wild start to the 2023 season. The Sentry Tournament of Champions was a rollercoaster. It was shaping up to be a runaway victory for my betting favorite Collin Morikawa until his first two bogeys of the tournament coincided with a torrid Sunday finish by Jon Rahm. Even with our guy’s staggering collapse, the bets were still a resounding, bankroll-building profit.
Let’s not get too full of hubris. It is a long and arduous season ahead. The Sony Open at Waialae Country Club on the island of Oahu, Hawai’i has been a PGA Tour mainstay since 1965. Before you assume it will be similar to last week’s romp at Kapalua on the scenic cliffs of Maui, just understand that there really aren’t many parallels between the two tournaments.
The Sony Open is a cut event on a par-70 track with longer rough than in years past. Hideki Matsuyama will attempt to defend his victory last year when he prevailed in a playoff over Russell Henley. The oft-discussed Pacific trade winds will be a factor this week, providing another wrinkle of difficulty for the players to navigate. The type of players who excel at Waialae are strong on approach with short and mid irons. The champion must also be strong around the greens, especially getting up and down from thick, spindly rough.
Although tempting, the favorites here aren’t often the eventual champions. Conversely, some of the golfers with the longest odds are primed to soundly beat expectations and aid in profitable betting. I bet with my chest out most weeks. This will be no exception.
Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
2023 Sony Open in Hawaii Odds, Picks & Predictions
Russell Henley (+2000 Outright [1u])
The Sony Open champions in the past are a who’s who of pin-seeking approach players. Henley won here in 2013 and has hunted the trophy at Waialae ever since. He famously imploded on the first playoff hole last year, losing to Matsuyama in dramatic fashion. Hideki was a worthy champion, however, with consecutive rounds of seven-under 63 on the weekend to run down Henley’s sizable 36-hole lead. Henley was second-best on tour in Strokes Gained on Approach (SG: APP) in 2022, leaving no mystery as to why he always seems to play well on Oahu.
Corey Conners (+2200 Outright [1u]; +500 Top-5 [1u]; +240 Top-10 [1u])
As much as I derided Conners for burning me repeatedly in DFS last season, he is a sparkling play this week at the Sony Open. The joyful Canadian bomber is also incredible with his short irons, leaving only a streaky putter to determine his fate. Conners was 16th in SG: APP last season and showed up strongly in a number of events, including an 11th-place finish at Waialae. With his very strong recent form, Conners will get my heaviest investment this week.
Kurt Kitayama (+5500 Outright [0.5u]; +1100 Top-5 [0.5u]; +500 Top-10 [1u])
I will humbly admit my bias in favoring Kitayama this week. Although he missed the cut in this event in 2022, it spurred a huge turnaround in his rookie season. Kitayama and I share the same birthplace in Chico, California and I competed against his older brother Daniel in high school. Daniel played collegiate golf in Hawai’i and young Kurt would often tag along, eventually becoming a burgeoning PGA Tour star. Since the wraparound schedule for the 2022-23 season began, Kitayama has been incredible from tee to green. He ranks 14th in SG: APP and 10th in Strokes Gained Around the Green (SG: ATG).
Mark Hubbard (+2800 Top-5 [0.5u]; +1100 Top-10 [1u])
My dark horses this week really deserve more respect for their performances in 2022. Hubbard is a wonderful approach player (20th in SG: APP) and a strong putter (50th in SG: Putting). Although his SG: ATG stat isn’t impressive overall, he is among the best scramblers around the green on the PGA Tour (11th-best from 10-to-20 yards). Without many of the top players in the World Rankings in this field, a streaky player with the right chops can make a run at the top of the leaderboard. I’ll take the very long odds on Hubbard’s immense talent.
Austin Smotherman (+2200 Top-10 [0.5u]; +850 Top-20 [1u])
Even farther down the betting board is Smotherman. The Northern California native is a world-class ball striker who has had his tribulations on and around the greens. He was 24th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (SG: OTT) and 32nd in SG: APP in 2022. Among the golfers who missed the cut at last year’s Sony Open in Hawai’i, he wasn’t one of the surprises. Call it an educated hunch, but Smotherman stands to surprise a lot of people by contending this week. His form is just getting warmed up.
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