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2023 South Point 400: NASCAR at Las Vegas Odds, Picks & Predictions

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Cashing any-sized ticket in the touch-and-go game we call sports betting is a feat. Cashing a NASCAR outright is unmatched.

Motorsports are always going to have variables. Factor in a less-than-two-year-old NASCAR Next Gen car and volatile factors like late-race cautions and occasional gimmicky tracks, and there is more than most algorithms can account for.

Still, that doesn’t stop the sport’s handicappers. For 38 weeks a year, we strap on our boots and head to the lab in pursuit of making ourselves and others money off something we enjoy watching. Various markets like placement props and matchups can be profitable, unit by unit. But we are always hunting the big game - outrights.

Nothing matches that feeling, the kinda high that pushes you through the next week, excited to come back for more. I took it for granted, hitting in nearly every other race over the first half of the season. Then came the summer drought where - week after week - I saw my tickets go up in smoke, often due to those volatile factors.

Finally, after pushing all our chips in on AJ Allmendinger at the Roval, we are back on top! As he took his emotional victory lap around the track, not knowing if it would be his last in a Cup car, I couldn’t help but to also be in my feels. We hit big and have just four more races to try to do it again.

That brings us back to Sin City this week, where what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas, except for your winnings. With 30 races between now and when NASCAR visited in the spring, here are the data sets we’re considering:

  • 2023 Las Vegas I (Finishes, green flag speed,* total speed rankings,* late-run speed* & loop data*)
  • 1.5-mile, low-tire wear, intermediate comp tracks (finishes & total speed rankings*):
    • 2023 Kansas I
    • 2023 Kansas II
    • 2023 Charlotte (slightly)
    • 2023 Texas (slightly)
  • Driver history
  • Track & playoff trends
  • Recent performance & current standings

*via ifantasyrace.com

With the stage set and cash in hand, let’s make our best bets for the South Point 400 and let the chips fall where they may:

2023 South Point 400: NASCAR at Las Vegas Odds, Picks & Predictions

All bet recommendations are for 1u unless noted.

Top 3: Kyle Larson (+130 via Caesars Sportsbook)

Kyle Larson enters Las Vegas as the favorite, and for good reason. He won both the seventh playoff race (Texas) and the Las Vegas playoff race in 2021. The 31-year-old has the best career driver rating in the field at Las Vegas (98.5) and is third all-time in average starting position (8.1). That’ll be huge, as passing will be at a premium.

In the spring, Larson was the second-best car in most advanced analytics, including total speed rankings (1.8), average position (2.2) and laps led% (23.3%), to only Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) teammate William Byron. While Byron has tailed off a bit at comp tracks as the season has progressed, Larson has not, ranking second in total speed rankings at all of our comp tracks, behind only Denny Hamlin. Unless Lady Luck is unkind, Larson will be competing for the win at the end once again.

Top 10: Alex Bowman (+130 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

For a second straight week, we’re going back to the well with another HMS driver in the T10 market, Alex Bowman. This was another playoff race that Bowman didn’t compete in due to injury last season, but Noah Gragson drove his No. 48 car well, finishing P11.

The Tuscon, Ariz. native finished behind only Byron and Larson in the spring and rated out No. 3 in most advanced analytics, including total speed rankings (3.8), average position (6.2) and driver rating (110.5). In his last six races in Las Vegas, Bowman has finished with a T5 in 5o% of them, including a win in March 2022. I expect “The Showman” to be among the best non-playoff drivers, finishing inside the top 10 for a second straight week.

Top Toyota: Denny Hamlin (+220 via Caesars Sportsbook)

As mentioned, Hamlin has been the best driver at our 1.5-mile, low-tire wear intermediate comp tracks this season. That includes winning our favorite comp track, Kansas, the first time there and just letting the second showing slip through his hands on a late-race caution.

The No. 11 car has been on a heater this whole second half of the season, finishing with a T5 in eight of his last 12 races. He was running P3 in the spring when the late-race caution came out with four to go. I expected a similar result and him to outduel his Toyota running mates in this one.

Other Bets on My Card:

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media and follow him @Between_SethFF.

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