2023 Stanley Cup Final Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Panthers vs. Golden Knights

by Matt Barbato |
Jun 01, 2023

Kudos to you if you predicted this matchup for the 2023 Stanley Cup Final, because I sure as heck didnâ€™t! But the Vegas Golden Knights and the Florida Panthers are now battling for an opportunity to hoist Lord Stanleyâ€™s cup.

The way both teams got to the Final is drastically different. The Panthers needed a late season charge and a collapse by the Pittsburgh Penguins just to make the playoffs. Meanwhile, Vegas overcame a slew of early-season injuries to quietly secure the top seed in the Western Conference.

Now, the two teams will meet with a championship on the line. Hereâ€™s a full breakdown of the series, as well as some advice on how Iâ€™ll be playing the 2023 Stanley Cup Final.

2023 Stanley Cup Final Best Bets, Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

Can Bob be the difference maker?

Thereâ€™s no doubt that Panthers goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky has been the most valuable player of these playoffs. While Matthew Tkachuk has been brilliant and clutch, he might not have had as many opportunities to be the hero if not for Bobrovsky.

Just take a look at MoneyPuckâ€™s Goals Saved Above Expectation metric, a stat thatâ€™s pretty self explanatory (think Wins Above Replacement for goalies keeping great scoring chances out of the net); with 19.6 goals saved above expected, Bobrovsky leads all goaltenders during the playoffs by a mile. Interestingly, Vegas netminder Adin Hill ranks third during the playoffs with 6.4 goals saved above expected.

The battle between the pipes is perhaps the most fascinating matchup to watch in this series. Neither goalie had a particularly great regular season, yet theyâ€™ve played a significant role in getting their teams to this point. Goaltending can be the great equalizer in any series, and itâ€™s awfully difficult to predict. But if Bob plays anywhere close to how heâ€™s performed to this point, then the Panthers are going to be awfully difficult to beat.

Neither team is an analytics darling

Another fascinating aspect of this series is that both teams have overachieved at 5-on-5 play during the series. Just take a look at these advanced metrics from Natural Stat Trick:

Corsi For % (measures shot attempt differential): Florida 47.34%, Vegas 46.89%
Scoring Chances For %: Florida 48.57%, Vegas 47.96%
High Danger Chances For %: Vegas 50%, Florida 49.59%
Goals For: Vegas 48-23 (67.61%), Florida 31-25 (55.36%)
Expected Goals For: Vegas 35.45-35.45 (50.03%), Florida 36.47-41.83 (46.58%)

All these numbers and percentages show that both teams have gotten far better results at 5-on-5 than they probably deserved. The last two stats are particularly interesting, as both teams experience pretty steep drop-offs in goals versus expected.

So why are the Golden Knights and Panthers outperforming expectations? Well, hot goaltending certainly helps, as both teams have posted save percentages above 94% during the playoffs at 5-on-5. And in Vegasâ€™ case, the Golden Knights have converted on nearly 12% of their shots at 5-on-5; for comparison, they only converted on 9% of their shots at 5-on-5 during the regular season. Itâ€™s hard to count on regression with such a small sample size like a playoff series, but the Golden Knights could be due for a bit of it in the Cup Final.

Penalty killing will be key

The Panthers and Golden Knights have both taken a high amount of penalties during the playoffs, and neither has done a particularly great job of killing off shorthanded situations. Florida has been short-handed 52 times during the postseason, the most during the playoffs, while Vegas has been short-handed third-most at 46 times.

Now, this isnâ€™t a complete surprise as itâ€™s natural for teams that play deeper into the postseason to climb up these lists. But whatâ€™s alarming is that both teams have struggled on the PK. Florida killed 37 of 52 penalties, while Vegas has killed 29 of 46. Those lackluster results are alarming when you factor in how well both goaltenders have played as of late.

But context is important, as Vegas gave up nine of its 17 power play goals allowed during an unstoppable Edmonton power play in the second round. Itâ€™s also worth noting that Florida committed 27 of its 52 penalties in the first round alone against the Bruins.

Both teams have shown plenty of punch on the power play, so staying out of the box could become a critical factor in the series.

Predictions & Best Bet

This has the makings to be a tightly-contested and highly entertaining Stanley Cup Final. Youâ€™ve got starpower on both sides. Vegas has Jack Eichel, Jonathan Marchessault, and Mark Stone. Florida has Tkachuk, Alexander Barkov and the best storyline in the sport in Bobrovsky.

Both teams are pretty well rounded; you have to be to get this far. But I think Vegasâ€™ depth might be what gives it the critical edge in this series. The Golden Knightsâ€™ bottom-six have outscored opponents 21-9 during the postseason and I suspect they could take advantage against Floridaâ€™s defensive pairing featuring veterans Marc Staal and Brandon Mountour.

While the Panthers were the better team in generating offense this season, the Golden Knights dealt with so many injuries to top players and have been the stronger defensive side all year. Neither team is afraid to forecheck in an effort to own puck possession, and I trust Vegasâ€™ group of finishers on counter attack opportunities a bit more than I trust the Panthers.

Maybe Florida is a team of destiny. Thereâ€™s nothing thatâ€™s happened thus far in these playoffs to suggest they arenâ€™t. But like Florida, Vegas is playing its best hockey right now.

This Panthers team is really, really good. Heck, it won the Presidentâ€™s Trophy a season ago. I just think Vegas is a little bit better in every area except maybe goaltending. Sure, the Knights could be due for some regression, but so could Bobrovsky. Thatâ€™s what makes this series really difficult to predict.

I would bet Vegas at -125 to win the series. But if youâ€™re looking for something juicier, I like Jack Eichel to win the Conn Smythe Trophy at +425. Eichel leads Vegas in points, and has the name-brand to win over the writers with his redemptive storyline.

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