2023 The American Express Odds, Picks & Predictions

by Bo McBrayer |
Jan 18, 2023

There will be weeks like the one I had at the Sony Open in Hawaii. The bets were a clean sheet of nothingness. Corey Conners narrowly missed a +240 payout for finishing top-10 (he was T-12), but the others were not as successful. Only Mark Hubbard missed the 36-hole cut out of the bunch, but the others might have wished they had the weekend to explore Oahu instead of floundering around the links. No bother. I only lost nine units. I never play more than 10% of my allotted bankroll in one week, especially in the beginning of a very long golf season.

Dropping into the red by 1.5 units isnâ€™t going to ruin my outlook for this week, as the PGA Tour touches down in sunny California. PGA West in the Palm Springs area hosts The American Express, a very unique event formerly known as the Bob Hope Classic. There is a pro-am over the first three rounds and the golfers play a variety of three courses. La Quinta Country Club, along with the Nicklaus and Stadium courses at PGA West will be traversed in some order before a 54-hole cut. The final round on Sunday will be played at the PGA West Stadium Course.

I was exactly right in fading the favorites last week at Waialea, as both Sungjae Im and Tom Kim missed the cut. This week offers a similar wildcard feel, but there are also some very prominent names vying for this trophy. Itâ€™s hard to imagine a first-time winner with such a strong field, but that is exactly what has happened multiple times in recent years. I have methodically thrown in a mixed bag of bets this week for the AMEX, ranging from juggernaut to relative unknown.

Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

2023 The American Express Best Bets

Tony Finau (+1200 Outright [1u]; +300 Top-5 [1u])

There arenâ€™t too many golfers in the world running hotter than Tony Finau at present. When running my model, which weights certain statistical categories independent of recent form, Finau found himself at the top of that list as well. Although I do feel he is just as likely to win as betting favorite Jon Rahm (+650), there are others I considered at the top too. Patrick Cantlay and Scottie Scheffler are also favorites of mine, but their odds are too short to bet in good conscience. Finau is the play. He can win any tournament, especially this one, if the putts continue to drop.

Will Zalatoris (+2000 Outright [1u])

The SoCal native Zalatoris always dominates the West Coast Swing. His 11-under 61 on Friday of last yearâ€™s AMEX put him square in contention, where he ultimately finished T6. Zalatoris is a world-class ball striker and putts better on bent/poa greens than on other surfaces. His odds at 20-1 are comical. I had him pegged at 12-1, so weâ€™ll certainly take the free juice in our favor.

Cameron Young (+2000 Outright [0.5u]; +450 Top-5 [1u])

Since the start of the 2022 season, Cam Young has quickly become one of my favorite golfers to watch. He had five runner-up finishes last year and was awarded PGA Tour Rookie of the Year. Iâ€™m pretty confident that, if there is to be a first-time winner at the AMEX on Sunday, Cam Young would be the surest bet.

Taylor Montgomery (+700 Top-5 [0.5u]; +330 Top-10 [1u])

Drive for show, putt for dough. Itâ€™s clichÃ©, but you can count the golfers in Montgomeryâ€™s tier of flat stick mastery on one hand. Tour players with elite skills at one or more facets tend to hang around a lot of leaderboards, especially at events like The American Express. The odds are likely to remain soft on Montgomery until the word travels far and wide about what kind of mad game he has. It took a lackluster weekend at the Sony last week to drop him into a T12 finish. It wonâ€™t be long now.

S.H. Kim (+13000 Outright [0.5u]; +1000 Top-10 [1u])

The Korean movement in professional golf hit the LPGA Tour more than a decade ago. The PGA Tour is now seeing its own Seoul cycle, with dominant performances by Kims. Along with Tom and Si Woo Kim, the third Kim, Seonghyeon, deserves a great deal more recognition than he is currently receiving. He finished T12 along with Montgomery and Conners at Waialea with four rounds in the 60s. Kim also finished 4th at the Shriners in October and was a force on the Korn Ferry Tour last season. Not only am I asking you to remember his name, but I am also laying my own money behind his ability to make waves in SoCal this week.

Total Units Played: 7.5

Potential Units: 131.3

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