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2023 The American Express Picks & Predictions: Top-5 Finishers

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There will be weeks like the one I had at the Sony Open in Hawaii. The bets were a clean sheet of nothingness. Corey Conners narrowly missed a +240 payout for finishing top-10 (he was T-12), but the others were not as successful. Only Mark Hubbard missed the 36-hole cut out of the bunch, but the others might have wished they had the weekend to explore Oahu instead of floundering around the links. No bother. I only lost nine units. I never play more than 10% of my allotted bankroll in one week, especially in the beginning of a very long golf season.

Dropping into the red by 1.5 units isn’t going to ruin my outlook for this week, as the PGA Tour touches down in sunny California. PGA West in the Palm Springs area hosts The American Express, a very unique event formerly known as the Bob Hope Classic. There is a pro-am over the first three rounds and the golfers play a variety of three courses. La Quinta Country Club, along with the Nicklaus and Stadium courses at PGA West will be traversed in some order before a 54-hole cut. The final round on Sunday will be played at the PGA West Stadium Course.

I was exactly right in fading the favorites last week at Waialea, as both Sungjae Im and Tom Kim missed the cut. This week offers a similar wildcard feel, but there are also some very prominent names vying for this trophy. It’s hard to imagine a first-time winner with such a strong field, but that is exactly what has happened multiple times in recent years. I have methodically thrown in a mixed bag of bets this week for the AMEX, ranging from juggernaut to relative unknown. You can find all my picks here.

Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

2023 The American Express Best Bets

Tony Finau (+300 Top-5 [1u])

There aren’t too many golfers in the world running hotter than Tony Finau at present. When running my model, which weights certain statistical categories independent of recent form, Finau found himself at the top of that list as well. Although I do feel he is just as likely to win as betting favorite Jon Rahm (+650), there are others I considered at the top too. Patrick Cantlay and Scottie Scheffler are also favorites of mine, but their odds are too short to bet in good conscience. Finau is the play. He can win any tournament, especially this one, if the putts continue to drop.

Cameron Young (+450 Top-5 [1u])

Since the start of the 2022 season, Cam Young has quickly become one of my favorite golfers to watch. He had five runner-up finishes last year and was awarded PGA Tour Rookie of the Year. I’m pretty confident that, if there is to be a first-time winner at the AMEX on Sunday, Cam Young would be the surest bet.

Taylor Montgomery (+700 Top-5 [0.5u])

Drive for show, putt for dough. It’s cliché, but you can count the golfers in Montgomery’s tier of flat stick mastery on one hand. Tour players with elite skills at one or more facets tend to hang around a lot of leaderboards, especially at events like The American Express. The odds are likely to remain soft on Montgomery until the word travels far and wide about what kind of mad game he has. It took a lackluster weekend at the Sony last week to drop him into a T12 finish. It won’t be long now.

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