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2023 The Players Championship Odds, Picks & Predictions

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My entire season has been made. Although my 250-1 dart throw on fellow NorCal native Kurt Kitayama was made post-article, the drive split the fairway. I waxed poetically about how Kitayama’s play style fit Bay Hill like a glove on The 19th Hole Live, my weekly golf show on YouTube for In Between Media. My wager was $5.30 for our home area code in Chico, California. The $1,325 payout still isn’t as sweet as the responses I received on social media for the miraculous call.

It was a special moment for 30-year-old Kitayama, whose first PGA Tour victory stared down the barrel of the best golfers in the world. He nearly gave it away on the ninth hole on Sunday when his tee shot landed out of bounds by mere inches. The ensuing triple bogey instantly brought him from a two-stroke lead to a one-stroke deficit with the arduous back nine ahead. It still never felt like the $3.6 million prize was the focus.

Kitayama saved par after par until his birdie on the 17th put him back in front of what was once a five-way tie at the top. He still needed to save par on 18. Two putts to win on a left-to-right sweeping 50-foot putt, downhill and down-grain. It was perfect. The last blade of Bermuda suspended his Taylor-Made ball on the lip. One more dimple from the moment that defines a career and earns an invitation to the Masters. Kurt Kitayama defeated Rory McIlroy and Patrick Cantlay. He held off Tyrrell Hatton and Scottie Scheffler, among others. It was awesome.

McIlroy and Hatton also brought our betting slips a decent return. Rory’s top-5 and Hatton’s top-10 finishes would have salvaged our week regardless. We also just barely missed cashing in on Max Homa top 10. The Kitayama hit means I’m playing with house money for the rest of the season, but I will not adjust my pre-planned confidence ratings that determine how many units are at risk each week.

Best 2023 THE PLAYERS Championship Bets

(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

To Sawgrass! THE PLAYERS is a true test of golf and will be on an iconic track. TPC Sawgrass is the quintessential Pete Dye mind *bleep*. The par-72 track is under 7,200 yards but demands supreme shot-making from the entire bag.

Many analysts will say that THE PLAYERS does not favor one particular type of golfer. That is only partially true. Champions here always have one triumvirate of success in Ponte Vedra Beach: superior wedge play, putting, and bogey avoidance. That last one is the kicker. Missing the fairway at TPC Sawgrass or short-siding one’s self on approach have proven time and again to be fatal. Sawgrass is a course that requires four days and 72 holes of planned and executed precision.

Here are my favorite wagers of the week, considering my weighted statistical model and the best game fits on one of the most identifiable golf courses in the world.

Best Bets

    • Justin Thomas (Outright +2000 [1u]; Top-5 +450 [1u])
    • Max Homa (Outright +2200 [1u]; Top-10 +230 [1u])
    • Tom Kim (Outright +3500 [0.5u]; Top-10 +350 [0.5u])
    • Chris Kirk (Outright +8000 [0.5u]; Top-20 +280 [0.5u]
    • Tom Hoge (Outright +10000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +330 [0.5u]
    • Brendon Todd (Outright +18000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +450 [0.5u]

Total Units Played: 7.5

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