2023 Toyota Owners 400: NASCAR at Richmond Odds, Picks & Predictions
Morgan Wallen said it best; "If you're looking for a sure bet, smooth ride... Honestly, I wouldn't put my money on me."
Richmond Raceway, on the other hand? It's about as sure of a thing as you’ll get when betting on the NASCAR Cup Series. Being one of stockcar racing's longest-running tracks, veteran experience and pure speed mean just about everything.
Yes, there will be your classic high tire wear, and pit strategy is sure to come into play. But overall, it's a race where most will be dozing off come stage two. Sportsbooks recognize this, shrinking odds and profit margins from the jump this week.
Here are the data sets we're considering heading to Richmond:
- 2022 shorter flat tracks total speed rankings*
- 2022 Richmond 1 & 2 total speed rankings* & finishes
- 2023 Pheonix total speed rankings* & finishes
- Track history at Richmond
- Recent performance & current standings
*via ifantasyrace.com
Hopefully, if you're tuning into In-Between Media‘s weekly YouTube series, "The Backroad," you hit on the Tyler Reddick 10-1 outright with us last week. If you did, you have profits to play with as we lay some juice on our best bets for the Toyota Owners 400:
2023 Toyota Owners 400: NASCAR at Richmond Odds, Picks & Predictions
All bet recommendations are for 1u.
Top 5: William Byron (+130 via Barstool Sportsbook)
The love/hate relationship with William Byron continues this week at Richmond. The 25-year-old has been shot out of a cannon this season, showing near-top speed at every track. Byron has the best driver rating this season, minus superspeedways.
He was No. 1 in total speed ranking when he took Phoenix, one of the most comparable tracks. Plus, Byron led 122 laps in this race last season, ultimately finishing third. Richmond 2 was amid Byron’s late-summer slump, yet he still managed an 11th-place finish and top-seven speed in the last quarter of the race. Let’s back the hottest driver in NASCAR and roll with the No. 24 for a T5 this week.
Top 10: Kyle Busch (-159 via Barstool Sportsbook)
The placement prop market is pretty shotty across all major sportsbooks for this week, so we might as well lay the juice on one of the bigger locks of the weekend. Kyle Busch has a career average finish of 7.0 at Richmond across 34 career starts. This includes six wins, 18 T5s and a T1o rate of 79.4 percent.
He finished here in ninth twice last season and continues to find his way to solid finishes this year, wracking up four T10s in the six point races. He wasn’t a rocket at Phoenix a few weeks back, but he was good enough to have a top-10 speed ranking and finish in the top 10 too. I expect more of the same from “Rowdy†come Sunday.
Group D: Corey Lajoie (-120 via Caesars Sportsbook)
Vs. Todd Gilliland (+220), Ty Dillon (+400), Anthony Alfredo (+550), Cody Ware (+2000) & JJ Yeley (+2000)
The head-to-head matchup market is also rather underwhelming this weekend, so we shift to group betting over at Caesars for this one. If you watch even the slightest bit of NASCAR, you probably recognize most of these listed names as the bottom feeders of the Cup Series, usually in the worst equipment.
Ty Dillon, Cody Ware and JJ Yeley are all in the 30s or beyond in points, and Anthony Alfredo is making his first start of the season in the No. 78 car. This leaves Todd Gilliland as the only driver in this group with a remote shot of beating Corey Lajoie this week.
However, Lajoie is amid one of his best seasons in the Cup Series, sporting a 15.2 average finish to Gilliland’s average finish of 22. Neither Lajoie nor Gilliland has cracked even the top 20 here before. But Lajoie has been setting personal bests all season, including an 11th-place finish at COTA just last week. I expect the No. 7 car to achieve another career-best Sunday.
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Seth Woolcock is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media and follow him @Between_SethFF.