2023 Valero Texas Open Odds, Picks & Predictions
That distant whine you hear is a lone bugle playing Taps for the last WGC Match Play. The PGA Tour should be creating more match-play events, not fewer. The suspense and drama that innately boils to the surface from the match-play format make for phenomenal television viewing.
Of course, my picks were largely duds. Jon Rahm played his worst golf all season and failed to escape group play. Patrick Cantlay was eliminated in the round of 16 by the eventual champion, Sam Burns. My lone pick with the hope of cashing was NorCal phenom Kurt Kitayama. He defeated Adrian Meronk and Tony Finau in a sudden-death playoff to advance out of his group, then obliterated Andrew Putnam to advance to the quarterfinals. A victory over Cameron Young would have cashed his 16-1 ticket for reaching the top-4, but he was defeated on the final hole.
Onward and upward we trudge, just one more week until The Masters. The final chance to sharpen up for Augusta comes this week at the Valero Texas Open. TPC San Antonio is a par-72 that stretches to more than 7,400 yards but is a fairly wide-open course. The more challenging aspect of the course is the length of the four par-5 holes. The Texas winds have made the course more difficult over the years, and early forecasts are predicting blustery conditions. Any type of golfer can win this event. Who will? The guy who gets hot.
2023 Valero Texas Open Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
The stats in my weighted model will be broader strokes this week. Strokes gained off the tee can set a golfer up for scoring opportunities this week, with the rest of the bag’s success varying in importance depending on the golfer’s form. I predict the winning score to land between 14 and 19 under par for the week so that Birdie-or-Better percentage will carry some weight this week. Another main consideration will be on golfers who play well in windy conditions and have a lower, draw-biased ball flight. Here are the golfers who will earn wagers in a very conservative week.
Rickie Fowler (Outright +1800 [1u]; Top-10 +210 [1u])
This is the last gasp for a golfer to receive an invitation to take the drive down Magnolia Lane next week. Rickie Fowler must win in order to play at Augusta. He is also set up to do just that. Fowler excels in windy conditions and has been playing his best golf in years. Rickie will have most golf fans’ rooting interests behind him this week, so I must follow suit with my own bets.
Davis Riley (Outright +2500 [0.5u]; Top-10 +280 [0.5u])
The thought behind Davis Riley is that his best form is plenty good enough to win the Texas Open. We saw him finish 19th in his last event at the Valspar and 8th at Bay Hill. He was thoroughly underwater at the PLAYERS, but I have come to expect streaky play from Riley over the years. TPC San Antonio will offer Riley plenty of opportunities to show off his ball-striking skills and make birdies.
Cam Davis (Outright +5000 [0.5u]; Top-10 +500 [0.5u])
The Aussie Cam Davis has really deflated odds this week in the wake of an illness that left him struggling for two months. He is back to full health now, as evidenced by his 6th-place showing at the PLAYERS a few weeks ago. Davis is an outstanding ball striker and is a birdie machine when he is on his A-game. These lines were just too soft to pass up.
Akshay Bhatia (Outright +10000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +360 [0.5u])
There won’t be very many instances where I won’t take a shot on Akshay Bhatia’s talent in non-designated events for the rest of the season. Now that he is on the PGA Tour full-time, we will get to witness his ascent into superstardom. Bhatia is a very accurate player who aggressively fires at flagsticks. This is a great event to show off that prowess, even if the breeze is up.
Hayden Buckley (Outright +13000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +450 [0.5u])
The reasoning behind taking a chance on Hayden Buckley is simple: he is one of the best drivers of the golf ball in the world. Buckley ranks fourth in Strokes Gained Off the Tee (SG: OTT) and sixth in total driving on the PGA Tour this season. He has also carded the second-most eagles on Tour in 2023. The bizarre stat with Buckley is his Friday scoring average, which is nearly two strokes worse than the other three days. If you only considered his average in rounds one, three, and four, he would be nearly a half-stroke better than Jon Rahm for best in the world. Sounds like a fun guy to root for.
Tano Goya (Outright +35000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +900 [0.25u])
The 34-year-old Argentinean is a long shot, but his strength this season has come off the tee and in exploiting par-5 holes. Tano Goya is also riding his best form at the moment, as he has made the cut in six of his last seven appearances. Goya made 20 birdies in Puerto Rico (finished 11th) and 16 in Puntacana last week, where he finished 35th. He isn’t known for avoiding bogeys, but his assertive play style definitely plays on a course that has featured winners like Corey Conners and Charley Hoffman.
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