2023 Wimbledon Men’s Final Picks & Predictions

Tennis fans were deprived of what was headed to be an epic match in the French Open semifinals, as Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz split the first two sets, but Alcaraz won just two games the rest of the match after suffering from cramps. Thus, this was the most anticipated final between the world’s two best players when the Wimbledon draw came out.

Djokovic is appearing in his 35th Major Final, the most all-time among men and women. He has made the Final in half of his 18 Wimbledon appearances (he is 7-1 in his previous eight Wimbledon Finals), and his 45 consecutive victories on Centre Court is the longest winning streak by anyone since it opened in 1922. Djokovic’s 34-match winning streak at Wimbledon is third-best in the Open Era, behind Bjorn Borg (41) and Roger Federer (40), and an eighth Wimbledon title would tie him with Roger Federer for the most all-time. However, more importantly, it would be his 24th Grand Slam victory and tie him with Margaret Court for the most ever.

Meanwhile, the World No. 1 Alcaraz won his 46th match of the season in the last round, tying him with Daniil Medvedev for the most on tour. This is his second Final appearance in his previous three Majors, and he is looking to make history as the first player ever to win an event the week before Wimbledon and then go on to win the Gentlemen’s Singles Title (he won the Queen’s Club title last week).

Is Djokovic winning a fifth straight Wimbledon title a formality, or is Alcaraz capable of an upset?

Read on for our thoughts and predictions for the 2023 Men’s Wimbledon Final.

2023 Men’s Wimbledon Final Odds

(odds via DraftKings)

Moneyline: Alcaraz (+150)/ Djokovic (-180)

Spread: Alcaraz +3.5 games (-120)/ Djokovic -3.5 games (+100)

Total: Over 40.5 games (-115)/ Under 40.5 games (-105)

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction

Djokovic is 20-0 in Majors this season and has won 27 consecutive Grand Slam matches dating back to last year. However, Djokovic had -160 pre-tournament odds to win Wimbledon and is just slightly higher now at -180, which suggests oddsmakers are tipping their hand that Alcaraz was the only player capable of beating him all along.

The most impressive part of Alcaraz’s run to the final has been his return of serve, as he has broken his opponents’ serve a combined 26 times through six matches and created at least 14 break-point opportunities in five of those (two came in his last three matches). Alcaraz was 4-of-16 on break-point chances in the Round of 16 against Matteo Berrettini after Berrettini entered not having been broken at Wimbledon.

With the forecast looking good for Sunday, there is a great chance the roof at Centre Court will be open, and that favors Alcaraz, as Djokovic would benefit from faster conditions. It is a small sample size, but Alcaraz has proven he can beat Djokovic, winning 6-7, 7-5, 7-6 in the 2022 Madrid semifinals. Djokovic saved 77% of break points in his first five matches (and all six against Jannik Sinner), and the fact that he has won 15 consecutive Major tiebreaks makes it difficult to back Alcaraz outright in anything fewer than five sets. But he can certainly beat him on this stage, and in the five sets he was healthy against Djokovic, only one went less than 12 games.

Considering Alcaraz has -130 odds to win at least two sets (and -110 odds to win fewer than two), this match can go the distance. In addition, five of Djokovic’s last six finals at Wimbledon have gone over the projected games total, and Alcaraz has won at least one set in 34 consecutive completed Grand Slam matches.

We want no part in predicting a winner if it goes to a decisive fifth set, so we will back both outcomes given the excellent value.

Picks: Djokovic to beat Alcaraz in five sets (+400 on DraftKings) and Alcaraz to beat Djokovic in five sets (+550 on DraftKings)

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