2023 Wimbledon Women’s Final Picks & Predictions

There has been much parity in Women’s tennis over the last five years, as entering Wimbledon, there were 16 first-time Major finalists in the previous 16 Majors. And while both Marketa Vondrousova and Ons Jabeur have appeared in a Grand Slam final before, neither has won before, which means Wimbledon will crown a first-time Major champion for the second consecutive year.

Vondrousova and Jabeur have split their six head-to-head matches, with Vondrousova winning each of the last two. But who will break the tie and win the most important head-to-head meeting of all between them, with a Grand Slam title on the line?

Read on for our thoughts and predictions for the 2023 Women’s Wimbledon finals.

2023 Women’s Wimbledon Final Odds

(odds via DraftKings)

Moneyline: Vondrousova (+170)/ Jabeur (-210)

Spread: Vondrousova +3.5 games (-120)/ Jabeur -3.5 games (+100)

Total: Over 21.5 games (-125)/ Under 21.5 games (+100)

Marketa Vondrousova vs. Ons Jabeur Prediction

Regarding the experience factor, the advantage would have to go to Jabeur, who finished runner-up at last year’s Wimbledon. Not only is Jabeur appearing in her second straight Wimbledon final, but she avenged her previous two Wimbledon losses in back-to-back matches to get to this point. She beat defending champion Elena Rybakina in the semifinals after losing to her in three sets in last year’s final and ousted Aryna Sabalenka in three sets in the semifinals after losing to her in straight sets in the quarterfinals in 2021. Add to that her dominating 6-0, 6-3 victory over two-time Wimbledon champion, Petra Kvitova, to go with her two victories over top-three players, and it is hard to argue with Jabeur’s current form and chances in this match.

However, the betting history in this match suggests there is value in the underdog Vondrousova, whose moneyline odds have shortened from +190 to +170 at DraftKings.

Vondrousova is appearing in her second Grand Slam final (2019 French Open), with this being the first time she has advanced past the second round in five Wimbledon appearances. She is the first unseeded Wimbledon Ladies’ Finalist in the Open Era and the first since Billie Jean King in 1963. Vondrousova joins Mark Philippoussis as the only players ever to advance to two Major Finals when unseeded. And if you count the Gold Medal match at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, Vondrousova is 0-2 when competing for titles. She also spent six months away from tennis last year after undergoing surgery and battling injuries.

Given all that, why have the odds moved so much in Vondrousova’s favor?

For as much credit as Jabeur gets for surviving the “quarter of death” and beating the quality of opponents as she has in the last three matches, Vondrousova’s path to the finals should not go unnoticed. She joined Zheng Jie and Barbora Strycova as the only women to defeat four seeded players en route to the Wimbledon semifinals. And from a tactical standpoint, Jabeur often is a matchup nightmare for the sport’s biggest hitters, frequently using slices and drop shots. But Vondrousova is just as crafty and expertly moved Elina Svitolina all over the court in their semifinal match. Vondrousova won 91% (12 of 13) of points where she hit a drop shot against Svitolina, and there is always an adjustment period when facing a left-handed player, so we would expect Jabeur to start slow.

Vondrousova’s return game has also been top-notch, as she has broken her opponent’s serve at least four times in all six Wimbledon matches and has had 5+ breaks of serve in each of her previous three. Thus, we are ignoring that she entered Wimbledon with four grass-court main draw wins in her career and has a sub-.500 (10-11) career record on grass courts.

Three of the last four Women’s Wimbledon finals have been won by underdogs, and each of the last four head-to-head meetings between these two players have gone over the total projected number of games. Thus, we are looking to back the Over on the number of games Vondrousova wins, a wager we can still cash without Vondrousova winning a set (if she lost two tiebreaks). We find more value in this play than backing Vondrousova to win at least one set at -160 odds.

Pick: Vondrousova to win Over 11.5 games (-120 on DraftKings)

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01