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2023 Xfinity 500: NASCAR at Martinsville Odds, Picks & Predictions

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Perhaps trivial, but there’s something about semi-finals - the tide before the wave, the fireworks before the grand finale.

Nobody talks about “Return of the Jedi,” but they do reference “The Empire Strikes Back.”

Semi-finals bring the action. Just ask Ross Chastain, who made perhaps the greatest move in stockcar racing history last year at Martinville, to punch his way into the Championship 4. “The Hail Melon,” the wall ride - whatever you want to call it - put NASCAR back in the headlines and himself on the map. Not bad for an eighth-generation watermelon farmer.

Though the move is now banned from NASCAR, I’m still expecting a race full of action and drama as six drivers compete for the final two spots in the NASCAR Cup Series Championship next week in Phoenix.

Before the end is the almost end. And we’ll try to cash in on it with the assistance of our data sets for the unique short, .5-mile track that is Martinsville Speedway:

  • 2023 Martinsville (Finishes, green flag speed,* total speed rankings,* late-run speed* & loop data*)
  • Short comp tracks (finishes & total speed rankings*):
    • 2023 All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro (slightly)
    • 2023 New Hampshire (slightly)
  • Driver history
  • Track & playoff trends
  • Recent performance & current standings

*via ifantasyrace.com

And with that, for the second-to-last time this season, let’s lay out our best bets, this time for the Xfinity 500.

2023 Xfinity 500: NASCAR at Martinsville Odds, Picks & Predictions

All bet recommendations are for 1u unless noted | Odds courtesy of BetRivers Sportsbook

Top 5: Kyle Larson (+125)

Getting Kyle Larson at plus-money for a T5 at Martinsville feels like an extreme value. The Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) driver qualified on the pole of this race a year ago and won Martinsville in the spring.

Perhaps even more impressive, the No. 5 car came from the rear to win the All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro and also finished third at our other comp track of New Hampshire. Already being locked into the Championship 4, Larson has one objective: win the race. That mentality should put him in a great position to cash on this placement prop.

Top 5: Martin Truex Jr. (+165)

After dealing with mechanical issues a week ago at Homestead, the pressure is on Martin Truex Jr., who sits -17 points below the cutline. Truex Jr.’s equipment has been shotty during the playoffs. Yet, it also was here at Martinsville earlier this season, positioning him 16th in the total speed rankings (17.8). Thanks to his track pedigree and top-five fourth-segment speed, Truex Jr. wheeled himself to a third-place finish.

The No. 19 also dominated New Hampshire, pacing first in the total speed rankings, leading 254 of 301 laps and running away with the victory. This makes me confident that regardless of the equipment he’s given, the New Jersey native will be towards the front when the checkered flag waves.

Matchup: Aric Almirola (-105) vs. Ty Gibbs (-122)

Aric Almirola is perhaps the best value across the board if you’re looking for a surprising T10. However, I’m backing him in the matchup department instead, as this H2H has the wrong driver favored. Almirola, who just announced that he won’t return to Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR) next year, was fast in the All-Star Open. He also ranked second in the total speed rankings at New Hampshire (3.7) and here at Martinsville in the spring (3.8).

Meanwhile, Ty Gibbs has yet to find his footing at this style of track in the Cup Series. The rookie was not very fast at New Hampshire, grading 15th in the total speed rankings (16.0) and finishing P27. It wasn’t much better for the No. 54 car here at Martinville, as he paced 18th in the total speed rankings (18.0) and finished 18th in the spring.

Other Bets on My Card:

  • Kyle Larson Outright (+700)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media and follow him @Between_SethFF.

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