2023 XFL Championship Game Best Bets, Picks & Predictions (Saturday)
Discover the top picks and predictions for the thrilling 2023 XFL Championship Game, scheduled for Saturday, as we dive into the best bets after an intense 10-week regular season. The XFL Playoffs have been filled with excitement, starting with an unexpected South Division Championship win for the 4-6 Arlington Renegades over the 7-3 Houston Roughnecks. On the other hand, the North Division Championship unfolded as anticipated, with the 9-1 D.C. Defenders emerging victorious against the 7-3 Seattle Sea Dragons. As the ultimate showdown of the 2023 XFL season approaches, explore which team bettors should back in this exhilarating finale.
2023 XFL Championship Best Bets
Here are our top picks for Saturday’s 2023 XFL Championship Game between the Defenders and Renegades.
XFL Championship Game Over/Under Prediction
The Defenders were the magic ingredient for shootouts this year. Their game totals were just 40 and 24 points in the first two games of the year. After that, however, the totals were 62, 50, 48, 63, 73, 67, 54, 57 and 58 points. So, from Week 3 through the North Division Championship Game, DC’s games averaged 59.1 points, and the median was 58 points.
DC’s offensive prowess earned them Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) highest offensive grade. Yet, their lousy defense netted them PFF’s third-lowest defensive grade.
The Renegades struggled mightily offensively most of the year. They were the XFL’s lowest-scoring offense in the regular season. They’ve scored only 172 points this year, including the South Division Championship Game. Furthermore, their defense was stingy and earned PFF’s second-best defensive grade.
Fortunately, Arlington’s offense received a jolt after trading for spring football veteran Luis Perez. The seasoned signal caller made his first start for the Renegades in Week 8 against the Guardians. Arlington scored only 18 points. However, in three subsequent games, they lit the Defenders up for 26 in an eventual overtime loss, dipped to just nine points in a meaningless contest in Week 10 and erupted for a season-high 26 in the playoffs. So, Perez has led the Renegades to precisely 26 points in two of their previous three games.
Interestingly, Arlington’s defensive performance was less consistent as the offense found its footing. They held Houston’s struggling offense to just 11 points in the playoffs. However, they permitted 25 points to the Roughnecks in Week 10 and 28 to the Defenders in Week 9. In addition, their typically stout run defense showed some chinks in the armor against the Roughnecks, something DC’s prodigious running attack might be able to exploit.
The game’s total of 48.0 points might look high when considering Arlington’s offensive struggles most of the year. But their recent performance and DC’s season-long penchant for playing in shootouts make the over an exciting bet for the XFL Championship Game.
Pick: Over 48.0 Points (-110)
XFL Championship Game Spread Picks
Arlington didn't have an ideal regular season, ending the year with a 4-6 record. Their four wins games came against the three worst teams in the XFL. Furthermore, the Renegades hadn't defeated a team with a winning record until two weeks ago against the Roughnecks. Yet they did play better later in the year. They lost by an average of 8.8 points per game during the regular season. However, the Week 10 matchup against the Roughnecks meant nothing to the Renegades.
Removing that matchup from the equation, Arlington lost by 7.8 points per game on average. The team kept most of their matchups close. The Renegades’ margin of defeat was 5.9 points per game during the regular season. However, they only had two losses by more than one possession, including the meaningless Week 10 matchup.
Meanwhile, the Defenders steamrolled through the regular season with a 9-1 record. Their only loss of the year came in Week 7 to the previously winless Orlando Guardians 37-36. In hindsight, the loss was good for the team as it was a wake-up call. The Defenders won their first six games by an average of 9.2 points per game, winning half of those matchups by 11 or more. However, things changed after the loss to Orlando.
D.C. won their final three games of the regular season following the loss to the Guardians. Yet, all three wins were by two or fewer points. After Defenders ran through their opponents to start the year, the team showed they could also win the hard-fought tight matchups. D.C. won their nine regular season contests by an average of 6.6 points per game. Furthermore, the Defenders' average margin of victory for the regular season was 5.8 points per contest.
After Arlington's impressive win two weeks ago, I wouldn't be shocked to see head coach Bob Stoops pull off another upset and win the championship despite a below .500 regular season record. These two teams faced off once during the regular season, with the Defenders getting a 28-26 victory in Week 9.
But the Renegades played well to end the regular season and again in the playoffs. Removing the meaningless Week 10 matchup, Arlington has two wins and a two-point loss to D.C. By comparison; the Defenders had three straight close victories before their blowout win in the playoffs two weeks ago.
The Renegades pulled a fast one on the Roughnecks and got the upset victory. The Defenders saw what happened and won't let themselves get embarrassed. Arlington will keep it within one score but won't come away with the win.
Pick: Renegades +6.5 (-110)
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