2024 3M Open: Odds, Picks & Predictions
Last week’s Open Championship was a wildly entertaining rollercoaster of emotions. I didn’t have Xander Schauffele on the card, incorrectly surmising his +1100 odds were too short. Through 54 holes, I was convinced Sam Burns was going to bring us home a ton of bacon. He shot 80 and finished 31st. Rory McIlroy and Cameron Smith were abysmal and each missed the cut by a wide margin. Our only saving grace on the card was Sungjae Im, whose top-10 finish paid out at +550. It wasn’t the best week we’ve had, but I’m far from discouraged.
The 3M Open is a relatively new event on the PGA Tour schedule. It is sandwiched between the Open and the Olympics, so the biggest names in the sport are skipping this non-signature event. In their stead, we are blessed with some rising young stars and a nice mixture of veterans hoping to play their way into next month’s FedEx Cup Playoffs. Low-profile events like the 3M Open are notorious for having exploitable lines for handicappers. The books made a fortune last week when half of the top 20 golfers in the world missed the cut. I am extremely confident in having the outright winner on the slip this week.
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2024 3M Open: Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota is a return to parkland golf and pristine bentgrass turf. The par-71 features generous fairways and enormous green complexes. Summer weather in Minnesota is notoriously beautiful, especially compared to that of Scotland. The 7,400-yard track’s main defense is a multitude of water hazards on most of the holes. The rough is also grown out to nearly four inches, which will emphasize driving accuracy with a bonus for longer hitters who can consistently find the fairway. Around the green and scrambling will be much less important than at Royal Troon, with more of a focus on approach proximity and putting.
The most heavily weighted statistics in my model are opportunities gained and birdie-or-better percentage. Those who can create scoring opportunities and cash them in at a high rate over four days will contend. With a Juicy Lucy burger dripping down my chin, let’s tee off.
Tony Finau
Tony Finau is the clear favorite in the 3M Open. He is easily the highest-rated golfer in this field and was able to return home early from his ejection at the Open. Finau won the 3M in 2022 and seems to thrive on these types of golf courses. He was scuffling with his putter last season but has been dialed in with the flat stick in recent weeks. It’s nice to get a betting favorite at more than 10-1 odds, especially when that golfer has proven himself at this event before.
Picks: Outright +1100 [2u]; Top-5 +240 [1u]
Luke Clanton
The Luke Clanton show has already begun. The Florida State University student athlete would have a nice chunk of change in his pocket if he were able to accept prize money, but he still has amateur status. No matter, he isn’t hurting because of NIL funding for Seminole golf. He can bring us plenty of profit on the betting side, too. Clanton has made all four professional cuts this season, including at the US Open. He also finished 10th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and nearly won the John Deere Classic, finishing runner-up. His tee to green metrics have been outstanding, only dealing with a volatile putter. With how well Clanton is striking it at this level, his odds are exceedingly long. Time to pounce.
Picks: Outright +2500 [1u]; Top-5 +500 [1u]
Nick Dunlap
One young gun after the other has emerged onto the PGA Tour scene this season. The most impressive one might be two-time winner, Nick Dunlap. He won the American Express as an amateur, then brought home the Barracuda Championship last week in NorCal as a professional. Dunlap’s all-around game is very solid. He is a volatile pick, to be certain. Dunlap is one of the most aggressive ball strikers in this field. He makes birdies in bunches but is also prone to carding a crooked number on occasion. I love the upside here, especially since his confidence and recent form could not be better.
Picks: Outright +4000 [0.5u]; Top-10 +360 [0.5u]
Michael Thorbjornsen
I absolutely refuse to miss out on Michael Thorbjornsen’s rise to stardom. Like Akshay Bhatia, the talent is unmistakably prodigious. Once he tastes victory, professional golf will have a hard time keeping him off the top of the leaderboards. The peripheral stats don’t necessarily point to this week as the time he will emerge onto the scene, but he is near the top in opportunities gained and birdie or better rate. Those being the main points of emphasis in my model leads me into some risky wish casting with Thorbjornsen. I believe it’s still worth the shot at 65-1.
Picks: Outright +6500 [0.5u]; Top-10 +500 [0.5u]
Deep Shots: Pierceson Coody & Neal Shipley
Going too deep in a field like this is not advised. My “deep†shots are 90-1 and 100-1 to win outright, respectively. They are not without volatility. Pierceson Coody had one of the worst imaginable starts to his 2024 season but has since found great form. His last start was a runner-up finish at the ISCO championship two weeks ago and fifth place at the Charles Schwab Challenge in late May. Coody is a machine when he’s striking it like he is currently. Neal Shipley recently turned professional like Dunlap and Thorbjornsen. He was low amateur at both the Masters and US Open, then finished 20th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He burnt me badly with his missed cut at the John Deere Classic but has since finished sixth at the ISCO and 40th at last week’s Barracuda. His prowess off the tee will be an asset at TPC Twin Cities. Shipley’s putting is also much better than the stats would suggest. Like most of the young guns in this field, he makes a lot of birdies and can give them back in a hurry. I’ll take my chances at the 3M.