Navigate

2024 AdventHealth 400: NASCAR at Kansas Odds, Picks & Predictions

by |

NASCAR betting requires the walk of a fine line between analytics and the living, breathing humans behind the wheel and down pit road.

Last week’s Dover winner, Denny Hamlin, reminded me of such. I asked him in a post-race interview what the biggest improvements the No. 11 team has made from last year’s three-win season to 2024, where Hamlin has already rattled off three wins in points-paying races and a victory at the preseason Busch Light Clash:

Numbers are great and can help paint the picture of what to expect from a race. But it’s only one brush. The other is the synergy between the driver and crew chief, engineers and mechanics and those climbing over pit wall.

It’s something I’ll keep in mind as NASCAR camps out in Kansas this weekend.

With no Xfinity Series, money-making opportunities for motorsports bettors begin on Saturday afternoon with Cup Series qualifying. The fun in the flatlands continues through the night with the Truck Series race and ends Sunday with 267 laps around one of NASCAR’s finest intermediate tracks.

Track history at Kansas is huge, as is recent performances on comparative 1.5-mile tracks. If things stay clean, the cream should rise to the top. It’s a chalky week; I’m not fighting it.

Here are my best bets for the 2024 AdventHealth 400 and my full betting card for another weekend of NASCAR racing.

2024 AdventHealth 400: NASCAR at Kansas Odds, Picks & Predictions

Top 5: Denny Hamlin (-134 via BetRivers) | 1.5u

It’s hard to bet against the hottest team across all NASCAR series right now, especially coming to one of their top tracks. Denny Hamlin won this race last year and was leading with eight to go in the fall, ultimately finishing second after a late-race restart. His pit crew is arguably the best in Cup, and Hamlin can lean on Toyota’s data that has helped them win all four Next-Gen races in the planes.

I’m playing the 43-year-old outright with a T5 insurance promo offered at BetRivers. So if he doesn’t win and still finishes T5, you at least get a free bet back. I’m doubling down that the No. 11 car finishes T5 with this additional prop. I mean, he has done it five straight times.

Not only are Hamlin’s finishes at Kansas top tier, but he is No. 2 in the high-speed intermediate total speed rankings since 2023, courtesy of ifantasyrace.com. This has resulted in a T5 finish in 50% of comperative races since the start of last season. Let’s once again trust NASCAR’s heel and arguably their most important active driver.

Top Chevy: Kyle Larson (+150 via DraftKings) | 1u

Kyle Larson is one of the few drivers who will have both the speed and racecraft required to play spoiler to Toyota this week. His Kansas finishes in the Next-Gen era are strong: P4, P2, P8 and P2. That’s good enough to be the top Chevy twice in that span.

Wholelsitically, Larson is No. 1 in the high-speed intermediate total speed rankings since 2023. He spanked the field at Las Vegas earlier this season and was leading at Texas two weeks ago until a loose wheel derailed his day. While I don’t know if he will have the help to win outright, he is by far and away the best Chevy at Kansas and 1.5-mile tracks in general right now.

Top 10: Brad Keselowski (+175 via Caesars) | 1.2u

There’s usually not much value in the T10 market when NASCAR comes to Kansas, but Brad Keselowski’s +175 number was a pleasant surprise. Keselowski was sixth in the total speed rankings at our latest Kansas race. He was running fourth before the late-race caution and ultimately finished ninth. It was a legit performance from the No. 6 car, running 94% of laps inside the top 15 (the fifth-most) and finishing with the fifth-best driver rating (102.5).

Roush Fenway Keselowski (RFK) Racing isn’t the class of the field at intermediates, and they’re priced that way. However, Keselowski just finished second at Texas two weeks ago and was T10 in 60% of intermediate comp races last year.

I’m playing both the T10 ticket and a sprinkle on the 50-1 outright, hoping pit road strategy puts Kesewsloki out front and I’m offered a live cashout.

Other Cup Series Bets on My Card:

Heart of America 200 (Truck Series) Bets:

Tail Seth’s Plays on the BP App @Between_SethFF

Seth Woolcock is a featured writer and editor at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media & follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF.

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App