2024 Ally 400: NASCAR at Nashville Odds, Picks & Predictions
In racing, you’re only good as your team. Just ask Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) and Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR), who have combined to win 13 of the 18 points-paying Cup Series races so far this season.
Decades of putting puzzle pieces into place have led to this success, and now Chase Briscoe will witness this firsthand. The 29-year-old announced this week that he’ll be driving the No. 19 car for JGR in 2025. This, of course, follows Martin Truex Jr. making his retirment from full-time racing official last week and the news of Stewart Haas Racing’s (SHR) closure surfacing last month.
A 14-time winner across NASCAR’s top-three series, Briscoe now gets the opportunity of a lifetime as he enters the prime of his career.
While I’m not nearly as talented at anything as Briscoe is behind the wheel, I can’t help but feel grateful for the opportunity I’ve been given here at BettingPros. Not only do I get to pen this regular article series, but I hosted a special edition of the “BettingPros Podcast this week,†previewing Nashville Superspeedway with Alex Timms of Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s Dirty Mo Media.
Getting the green flag to create more motorsports betting content for the fine people of the internet is really all I could ask for. And to have a talented staff like I do to help me produce it is a blessing.
With this week’s theme being elite teams, it only makes sense that I’ll be backing some of NASCAR’s finest across all three series with my full card and best bets for the 2024 Ally 400.
2024 Ally 400: NASCAR at Nashville Odds, Picks & Predictions
Outright: Kyle Larson (+500 via FanDuel) | 2u
I usually don’t consider an outright play a best bet, but when it comes to Kyle Larson this week, it’s the only way to currently play him at value. The California native is one of just two drivers who has finished T5 in all three Cup Series races in the Music City.
He won the inaugural sprint, leading 264 of the 300 laps, and has since finished fourth and fifth. Larson is eighth in the Nashville Next-Gen total speed ranking, courtesy of ifantasyrace.com, and has scored stage points in three of four possible stages in those races. Maybe the most intriguing metric about his recent runs at the 1.33-mile concrete intermediate track is that he had the fastest fourth-segment speed last year.
When looking at the comp tracks, Dover and high-speed intermediates, Larson is second in the 2024 total speed rankings. This comes following dominant wins at Las Vegas and Kansas, plus a runner-up finish in Deleware and having one of the fastest cars at both Texas and Charlotte (albeit Justin Allgaier was substituting in the car in the Coca-Cola 600).
I’ll also be keeping my head on a swivel for when the odds drop after qualifying to invest further in Larson in the prop market. But for now, I’ll push two units in on the 5-1 outright ticket at FanDuel.
Under 7.5 Finishing Position: Ross Chastain (+110 via Caesars) | 2u
Ross Chastain hasn’t been as dominant this season on the high-speed intermediate tracks as he was a year ago, but he’s still had speed. The Busch Light-backed driver finished eighth in the recent Coca-Cola 600 and fourth at Las Vegas early in the year. He also nearly won Texas if it weren’t for getting dumped late by William Byron. That’s good enough for eighth in our comp track total speed rankings.
Now, the “Melon Man†returns to the site of one of his latest Cup Series victories, where he ran inside the top five at the finish of both stages and led 99 laps. He joins Larson as the only other driver to finish T5 in all three Cup Series races here, one even coming in a Chip Ganassi car in 2021.
Chastain is third in the Nashville Next-Gen total speed rankings, so getting him at plus money just to finish inside seventh or better feels like a no-brainer!
Winning Car Number: Under 12.5 (-130 via Caesars) | 3u
If you’re going to place just one NASCAR bet this weekend, let it be this one. This winning car number prop has a ton of outs, including my top-three rated drivers for this week and several other fast cars:
- No. 1 | Ross Chastain: See above
- No. 2 | Austin Cindric: Unlikely, but does have one win this season
- No. 3 | Austin Dillon: One of his better tracks, but having an abysmal year
- No. 4 | Josh Berry: Has had a shot to win in back-to-back weeks
- No. 5 | Kyle Larson: See above.
- No. 6 | Brad Keselowski: One of the fastest cars in the garage right now
- No. 7 | Corey Lajoie: No chance, another driver with no momentum
- No. 8 | Kyle Busch: Motivated and won the pole at Dover
- No. 9 | Chase Elliott: Fourth in the Nashville Next-Gen total speed ranks
- No. 10 | Noah Gragson: 14th in the comp total speed ranks
- No. 11 | Denny Hamlin: first in the comp total speed ranks
- No. 12 | Ryan Blaney: Has had race-winning speed for four straight weeks
Getting such a stacked lineup of contenders, I’d consider playing this all the way down to -150.
Other Cup Series Bets on My Card:
Denny Hamlin Outright (+650 via Caesars) | 1.2u
Ross Chastain Outright (+900 via BetRivers)| .99u
Denny Hamlin Top Toyota (+210 via Caesars) | .5u
Justin Haley T10 (+1400 via FanDuel) | .7u
Riley Herbst T10 (+2500 via DraftKings) | .1u
Tennessee Lottery 250 (Xfinity) Bets:
Winning Manufacturer: Toyota (-1115 via Caesars) | 2u
Carson Kvapil (+100 via Caesars) vs. Sammy Smith | 1.5u
Rackley Roofing 200 (Truck) Bets:
Nick Sanchez (-120 via Caesars) vs. Ty Majeski | 2.5u
Seth Woolcock is a featured writer and editor at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media & follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF.